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Pittsburgh Pirates Set to Host Red Birds in Weekend Series
By Marty Leap
Game One
Date: Friday, April 30, 2021
When: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: JT Brubaker (2.01 ERA, 4.11 FIP) vs John Gant (2.25 ERA, 4.03 FIP)
Through the first month of the season few players have been a bigger positive surprise for the Pittsburgh Pirates than starting pitcher JT Brubaker. The most recent start from Brubaker was the best of his MLB career, allowing just a pair of solo home runs while striking out 5 batters and not issuing a walk in 7 innings pitched.
This season Brubaker’s fastball spin rate ranks in the 46th percentile of baseball while his curveball spin rate is in the 88th percentile. Brubaker has not allowed a hit off of his curveball this season, and his slider, which opposing batters are 9 for 37 against, has flashed as a plus pitch well. Look for Brubaker to continue to lean on these two pitches in Friday night’s start.
While Gant’s 2.25 ERA is a pretty number, many of his underlying numbers scream regression. His 92.8 MPH exit velocity, 8.9% barrel rate and 46.4% hard hit rates are all worse than league average,. His 14.8% walk rate is a concerning number as well.
Left-handed hitters own a .382 on-base percentage and a .429 slugging percentage off of Gant this season. Look for Derek Shelton to field a left-handed heavy lineup on Friday night. It could be a big night for Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco.
After some deeper digging, it appears the Pirates have the pitching advantage in game one of the weekend series.