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Pittsburgh Pirates Set to Host Red Birds in Weekend Series
This weekend the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals for the first of three series between the two teams at PNC Park this season
Few MLB teams are playing better baseball right now than the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since starting the season 1-6, the Pirates are 4-0-2 in series played. Across these 6 series played the team has posted an overall record of 11-6.
By going 11-6 in this stretch the Pittsburgh Pirates have pulled back to .500 on the season. Following a 9-6 loss against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night, the Pirates enter Friday night’s contest against the St. Louis Cardinals with a 12-12 record.
A month into the season the Pirates are set to play their divisional rival Cardinals for the first time this season. While the Pirates are coming off an off day, the Cardinals had to play the fourth and fin game of a four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday afternoon.
Entering this weekend series the Pittsburgh Pirates will be looking to remain on the plus side, or at least even with, .500 on the season. It will be a tall task against the Cardinals and their pitching staff and the fight begins Friday night at PNC Park.
Game One
Date: Friday, April 30, 2021
When: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: JT Brubaker (2.01 ERA, 4.11 FIP) vs John Gant (2.25 ERA, 4.03 FIP)
Through the first month of the season few players have been a bigger positive surprise for the Pittsburgh Pirates than starting pitcher JT Brubaker. The most recent start from Brubaker was the best of his MLB career, allowing just a pair of solo home runs while striking out 5 batters and not issuing a walk in 7 innings pitched.
This season Brubaker’s fastball spin rate ranks in the 46th percentile of baseball while his curveball spin rate is in the 88th percentile. Brubaker has not allowed a hit off of his curveball this season, and his slider, which opposing batters are 9 for 37 against, has flashed as a plus pitch well. Look for Brubaker to continue to lean on these two pitches in Friday night’s start.
While Gant’s 2.25 ERA is a pretty number, many of his underlying numbers scream regression. His 92.8 MPH exit velocity, 8.9% barrel rate and 46.4% hard hit rates are all worse than league average,. His 14.8% walk rate is a concerning number as well.
Left-handed hitters own a .382 on-base percentage and a .429 slugging percentage off of Gant this season. Look for Derek Shelton to field a left-handed heavy lineup on Friday night. It could be a big night for Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco.
After some deeper digging, it appears the Pirates have the pitching advantage in game one of the weekend series.
Game Two
Date: Saturday, May 1, 2021
When: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Cahill (7.11 ERA, 3.24 FIP) vs Jack Flaherty (3.18 ERA, 3.71 FIP)
Despite an ugly ERA, Trevor Cahill has pitched well for the Pittsburgh Pirates thus far this season. In his 4 starts Cahill has pitched 19 innings, walking just 6.0%, striking out 22.9% and he’s allowed just 2 home runs (0.95 HR/9).
Cahill allowed 7 earned runs in his first start of the season against the Reds. Since then he has pitched 15 innings in his last 3 starts. In these 15 innings he has not allowed a home run, walked 5 batters and struck out 15.
Driving Cahill’s success has been the spin and movement on his pitches. His curveball spin rate is in the 96th percentile in baseball. Opposing batters are hitting for a slash line of .211/.249/.263 off f his curveball, his cutter has also been a plus pitch with an opposing slash line of .133/.253/.400. These two pitches have helped Cahill find himself in the 62nd percentile of baseball in chase rate and in the 50th percentile of whiff rate this season.
While Flaherty is off to a strong start this season he does appear to be a bit of a regression candidate. His batting average on balls in play is just .222, which indicates he has benefited from good luck/defense. His exit velocity of 91.5 MPH and hard hit rate of 41.3% are both higher than league average, as is his 8.0% barrel rate.
Hopefully, Flaherty’s regression will begin on Saturday night.
Game Three
Date: Sunday, May 2, 2021
When: 1:05 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: TBD vs Adam Wainwright (4.08 ERA, 3.96 FIP)
Veteran Adam Wainwright has been a nemesis of the Pittsburgh Pirates for over 15 years. Sunday afternoon, he will once again toe the rubber at PNC Park as the 39-year-old righty continues to chug along.
In 5 starts this season Wainwright has pitched 28.1 innings. He has just 5.0% of batters faced while striking out 26.4% which is the highest strikeout rate of his career. The home run ball has plagued him some this season, having allowed 5 which comes out to a 1.57 HR/9. Wainwright’s fastball spin rate is in the 57th percentile of baseball and his still deadly curveball is in the 89th percentile.
Wainwright has had reverse splits through his first 5 starts this season. Left-handed hitters have hit just .214/.279/.321 off of Wainwright, while right-handed hitters have hit for a .316/.350/.544 slash line off of the veteran.
As of this writing the Pittsburgh Pirates had not announced a starter for Sunday afternoon. Due to having two off days this past week, Tyler Anderson (3.38 ERA, 3.50 FIP), who is off to a terrific start this season, would be able to pitch on his normal rest. Sticking with five starting pitchers would put Wil Crowe (3.86 ERA, 3.52 FIP) in line to start.
The Cardinals have been pretty… average
So far this season the Cardinal offense has been, overall, middle of the pack. Entering play on Thursday they rank 7th in the National League in runs scored (106) and home runs (30). Power is important for the Cardinals on offense as they rank just 13th in the NL with a .299 team on-base percentage. If the Cardinals are struggling to hit the long ball they could struggle to score this weekend.
Long-time catcher Yadier Molina is off a terrific start at the plate this season. Through his first 71 plate appearances of the season Molina is hitting for a .323/.366/.631 slash line to go with a 169 wRC+. His 5 home runs are tied with Paul Goldschmidt for the team lead. Rookie sensation Dylan Carlson is hitting for a .286/.371/.500 slash line to go with a 138 wRC+.
One big offensive surprise is the slow start for Goldschmidt. While he is tied with Molina for the team lead in home runs he is hitting for just a .224/.269/.357 slash line. He has struck out at a 24.0% rate and has a wRC+ of just 76.
Pitching wise, the Cardinals have also been pretty middle of the pack. Again, entering play on Thursday, they rank 7th in the NL in team ERA (4.07) and FIP (4.06). As a staff they have not struck out many batters with a team strikeout rate of 22.6% which ranks 13th in the NL. Control has also been a bit of an issue as the Cardinal staff has the 4th highest walk rate (10.4%) in the NL.
dark. Next. Examining Mitch Keller's Struggles
Stay tuned at Rum Bunter throughout the weekend for coverage from the series. Posting a 4-0-2 record in their last 6 series, the Pirates will be looking to stay hot and pick up another series victory this weekend.