Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Jack Leiter vs Jordan Lawlar

Jordan Lawlar

Lawlaer is a shortstop by trade at Dallas Jesuit High School in Dallas, Texas. Lawlar is seen as a middle infielder with five-tool potential. Among his five tools, MLB Pipeline grades his worst at a 55, that being his power and fielding ability. However, his hit, run and arm tool are all considered 60-grade tools.

According to MLB Pipeline, Lawlar is drawing comparisons to 2019 second overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. However, he’s been called a more polished hitter at the same age with better patience at the plate. Lawlar has been praised for his outstanding bat speed, something the Pittsburgh Pirates like to see in their players. Not only does he have a quick swing, but he has a compact swing. Perfect Game also says his swing is repeatable, so his mechanics are pretty fine-tuned at a young age.

As a fielder, he definitely can stick at shortstop. He’s considered a plus defender with range and a strong arm. Power-wise, he’s far from reaching his max power potential, despite already showing flashes of it in high school.

Lawlar has a very projectable 6’2″ frame and currently weighs 185 pounds. He is currently the same height as Byron Buxton was when he was drafted. There’s a lot of room for him to fill out and reach that huge power potential. Currently, he’s just 18-years-old and turns 19th on the first day of July.

Lawlar is committed to Vanderbilt. Like with any high school prospect, the Pittsburgh Pirates would be taking a risk in picking Lawlar as he could opt to go to college instead. That said, the odds of a pick as highly touted as Lawlar choosing to go to college over signing with a MLB club are slim.

High school prospects are also very raw talents. He’ll only be 19 by the end of the 2021 season. In comparison, the Pirates’ first-round pick in 2020, Nick Gonzales, will be 22 by the end of the 2021 season.

Jack Leiter

Leiter is one of Vanderbilt’s aces alongside Rocker. Leiter has pitched 64.1 innings this season, posting an excellent 2.10 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 0.88 WHIP. Leiter has gotten a ton of strikeouts. He’s struck out 41.7% of all the batters he has faced this year. He leads all pitchers in the SEC Conference in strikeouts and is 4th in opponent on-base average (.121).

Leiter’s fastball has looked great this season. Once a pitch that only averaged out in the lower-90s is now a pitch he’s topping out in the triple digits in. Overall, he’s averaged out in the 90-95 MPH range.

The pitch went from a solid offering with above-average potential to a 70-grade offering by MLB Pipeline. To go with his four-seamer, he has a 12-6 curveball and slider. Both of these pitches grade out as above average with his curve coming in with a 60-grade and his slider coming in with a 55-grade. He also will throw a change-up, the fourth offering with above-average potential.

However, Leiter has suffered from some control issues. He’s walked 11.4% of batters he has faced. Home runs have also been an issue with Leiter. He has surrendered 9 home runs for a 1.26 HR/9 rate.

My Verdict

Rarely does a draft have so many players who are so close to each other in terms of their prospect stock. Leiter and Lawlar are very, very close in my opinion and the Pittsburgh Pirates likely can not go wrong with either. However, in the end and especially at this rate, I believe they will eventually select Lawlar.

Sure, Lawlar is a young and raw talent. But he’s also a potential five-tool player who’s already well disciplined at the plate. He’s very athletic, and may even have the highest ceiling in the draft. The Pirates do have a lot of middle infield prospects throughout the system in Liover Peguero, Oneil Cruz and Nick Gonzales. But you never draft based on positions.

Leiter is a very talented pitcher as well, but his overall stock has essentially plateaued since he showed some improved velocity. Meanwhile, Lawlar’s stock is rising at a considerable rate. To me, Leiter’s control issues are a red flag. It’s not the be-all-end-all if he doesn’t have Greg Maddux pin-point accuracy, but definitley something that the Pirates need to keep in mind.

In the end, I believe the Pittsburgh Pirates will make the right choice. Ben Cherington has done well as the Pirate general manager stocking the farm system, making some great trades, and doing extremely well in last year’s draft. Whoever he picks, whether it be Lawlar, Leiter, or another prospect, he’ll likely make the right decision.