Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Jack Leiter vs Jordan Lawlar

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May 1, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Ben Cherington talks on the field before the game against the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

The Pittsburgh Pirates will have a tough choice to make in this upcoming draft. Jack Leiter or Jordan Lawlar? Which prospect should they take with the number one overall pick?

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates finished 19-41 in the shortened 60-game 2020 season. This left them as the worst team in baseball but earned them the number one overall pick in the draft. In some drafts, there is generally one player who stands out as the best prospect available to be picked.

However, the 2021 draft will not be like that. For a long time Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker looked like the consensus top pick. But his stock has fallen while Vandy teammate and co-ace Jack Leiter’s stock skyrocketed. That said, infielder and top high school prospect Jordan Lawler’s stock has been on a huge rise as of recently.

So this leaves a very tough question, one that may not have a specific right answer. Who do the Pittsburgh Pirates select with the top pick in the draft? Leiter or Lawlar?

The draft is still a few months away. Who knows, by then, we may be looking at two other prospects. However, let’s take a look at what is considered right now, the two best prospects, what they do well, what their weaknesses are, and come to a prediction as to who the Pittsburgh Pirates will select.

PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 13: Players line up along the first and third base lines prior to the start of the Opening Day game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers at PNC Park on April 13, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images) /

Jordan Lawlar

Lawlaer is a shortstop by trade at Dallas Jesuit High School in Dallas, Texas. Lawlar is seen as a middle infielder with five-tool potential. Among his five tools, MLB Pipeline grades his worst at a 55, that being his power and fielding ability. However, his hit, run and arm tool are all considered 60-grade tools.

According to MLB Pipeline, Lawlar is drawing comparisons to 2019 second overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. However, he’s been called a more polished hitter at the same age with better patience at the plate. Lawlar has been praised for his outstanding bat speed, something the Pittsburgh Pirates like to see in their players. Not only does he have a quick swing, but he has a compact swing. Perfect Game also says his swing is repeatable, so his mechanics are pretty fine-tuned at a young age.

As a fielder, he definitely can stick at shortstop. He’s considered a plus defender with range and a strong arm. Power-wise, he’s far from reaching his max power potential, despite already showing flashes of it in high school.

Lawlar has a very projectable 6’2″ frame and currently weighs 185 pounds. He is currently the same height as Byron Buxton was when he was drafted. There’s a lot of room for him to fill out and reach that huge power potential. Currently, he’s just 18-years-old and turns 19th on the first day of July.

Lawlar is committed to Vanderbilt. Like with any high school prospect, the Pittsburgh Pirates would be taking a risk in picking Lawlar as he could opt to go to college instead. That said, the odds of a pick as highly touted as Lawlar choosing to go to college over signing with a MLB club are slim.

High school prospects are also very raw talents. He’ll only be 19 by the end of the 2021 season. In comparison, the Pirates’ first-round pick in 2020, Nick Gonzales, will be 22 by the end of the 2021 season.

Delbarton vs. West Morris in the Morris County Tournament baseball final at Montville High School on Saturday, March 11, 2019. D pitcher #22 Jack Leiter.Delbarton Vs West Morris /

Jack Leiter

Leiter is one of Vanderbilt’s aces alongside Rocker. Leiter has pitched 64.1 innings this season, posting an excellent 2.10 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 0.88 WHIP. Leiter has gotten a ton of strikeouts. He’s struck out 41.7% of all the batters he has faced this year. He leads all pitchers in the SEC Conference in strikeouts and is 4th in opponent on-base average (.121).

Leiter’s fastball has looked great this season. Once a pitch that only averaged out in the lower-90s is now a pitch he’s topping out in the triple digits in. Overall, he’s averaged out in the 90-95 MPH range.

The pitch went from a solid offering with above-average potential to a 70-grade offering by MLB Pipeline. To go with his four-seamer, he has a 12-6 curveball and slider. Both of these pitches grade out as above average with his curve coming in with a 60-grade and his slider coming in with a 55-grade. He also will throw a change-up, the fourth offering with above-average potential.

However, Leiter has suffered from some control issues. He’s walked 11.4% of batters he has faced. Home runs have also been an issue with Leiter. He has surrendered 9 home runs for a 1.26 HR/9 rate.

SARASOTA, FLORIDA – MARCH 15: Manager Derek Shelton #17 of the Pittsburgh Pirates looks on during the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles during a spring training game at Ed Smith Stadium on March 15, 2021 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images) /

My Verdict

Rarely does a draft have so many players who are so close to each other in terms of their prospect stock. Leiter and Lawlar are very, very close in my opinion and the Pittsburgh Pirates likely can not go wrong with either. However, in the end and especially at this rate, I believe they will eventually select Lawlar.

Sure, Lawlar is a young and raw talent. But he’s also a potential five-tool player who’s already well disciplined at the plate. He’s very athletic, and may even have the highest ceiling in the draft. The Pirates do have a lot of middle infield prospects throughout the system in Liover Peguero, Oneil Cruz and Nick Gonzales. But you never draft based on positions.

Leiter is a very talented pitcher as well, but his overall stock has essentially plateaued since he showed some improved velocity. Meanwhile, Lawlar’s stock is rising at a considerable rate. To me, Leiter’s control issues are a red flag. It’s not the be-all-end-all if he doesn’t have Greg Maddux pin-point accuracy, but definitley something that the Pirates need to keep in mind.

Next. Nick Gonzales Pro Career Off to a Hot Start. dark

In the end, I believe the Pittsburgh Pirates will make the right choice. Ben Cherington has done well as the Pirate general manager stocking the farm system, making some great trades, and doing extremely well in last year’s draft. Whoever he picks, whether it be Lawlar, Leiter, or another prospect, he’ll likely make the right decision.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will have a tough choice to make in this upcoming draft. Jack Leiter or Jordan Lawlar? Which prospect should they take with the number one overall pick?

Jordan Lawlar

Jack Leiter

My Verdict

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