Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential Long-Term Impact of Cody Bolton’s Injury

Cody Bolton will miss the rest of the 2021 season, but this injury could lead to the end of his time in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ organization.

Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Cody Bolton was just placed on the 60-day injured list, but his stint will last a lot longer than just 2 months. He’s likely to miss 4-6 months as he had to undergo surgery to repair a medial meniscus tear, as reported by Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. However, this could completely end Bolton’s time with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The last time fans got to watch the right-hander pitch was in 2019. He got off to quite a good start at High-A Bradenton where he had a 1.61 ERA, 1.96 FIP and 0.85 WHIP through 61.2 innings. He had a fantastic 28.9% strikeout rate to go with a 5.4% walk rate. Bolton allowed a single home run, as he was also helped by a good 46.7% ground ball rate.

When Bolton was promoted to Double-A Altoona, he surrendered 26 earned runs in just 40 innings of work. He saw his strikeout rate fall nearly 10% to 19.8% while his walk rate spiked to 9.6%. Home runs became a massive issue, as well as his HR/9 rate, rose to 1.35. Much of his struggles were attributed to a huge decrease in ground ball rate (34.2%) and left on base rate falling from 75.6% to 60.5%. Though he did have a much more solid 4.02 xFIP, so his bottom line numbers may not have been as bad as they looked.

This is far from the first time Bolton has served an injury list stint. He was placed on the IL twice in 2019. He first suffered an injury in early June that kept him out until the 11th. Then, he missed nearly a month, being placed on the IL on August 17th and being activated from it on September 11th.

While the injury bug is a concern, the biggest reason that Bolton’s time in the Pirate organization could be near its end is the fact he will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this upcoming offseason. The Pirates will have to decide on whether or not to protect the 2017 6th round draft pick and it isn’t a clear choice.

Sure, Bolton is ranked as one of the team’s higher pitching prospects. FanGraphs ranks him as their 12th best prospect. Meanwhile, MLB Pipeline has him as their 10th prospect. But he hasn’t pitched in a professional game since 2019, will miss all of 2021, and his future as a starting pitcher will be a big question as his durability has not been a strength. After all, before his knee surgery, Bolton was slated to start the 2021 season in the bullpen, a role he has not served before. The original plan was likely to get his workload up to speed. But now with his durability in question, his long term home is looking more and more like the bullpen.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will also have to make room on the 40-man roster for other prospects. The likes of Tahnaj Thomas, Liover Peguero, and Nick Gonzales will most certainly take priority over Bolton. Even more so now with the pitcher’s injury.

Plus, even if the Pittsburgh Pirates do lose Bolton in the Rule 5 Draft, they have plenty of other pitching talent throughout the system. Aside from the big names like Quinn Priester, Brennan Malone, Miguel Yajure, and the aforementioned Thomas, they also have Roansy Contreras (who’s been outstanding to start 2021), Carmen Mlodzinski, Nick Garcia, Jared Jones, Eddy Yean, and Omar Cruz. They could add an elite-level prospect in Jack Leiter if that’s who they end up selecting. Even if they select Jordan Lawlar, they’ll likely take a pitcher with one of their early draft picks.

Let’s also not forget that they could inject the system with even more pitching talent if they deal the likes of Adam Frazier, Richard Rodriguez and/or Tyler Anderson. If the Pittsburgh Pirates acquire a MLB ready player, or a near MLB ready player, in any trades, then that’s another player that might take priority over Bolton for a 40-man roster spot. They already have some pitching talent in the major league level with JT Brubaker and Wil Crowe. Mitch Keller has also shown flashes of dominance, albiet very spotty flashes.

At this point, it’s really hard to tell what Bolton’s future would be with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He hasn’t pitched in a professional game since August 15th, 2019. He probably won’t pitch in a real game again until 2022. After this knee surgery and considering all the pitching talent, and top prospects that will likely get a 40-man roster spot very soon, Bolton may be looking at his final months as a Pirate.