Pittsburgh Pirates: Breaking Down Adam Frazier’s Trade Value

Adam Frazier could be one of the Pittsburgh Pirates players on the move this summer, so what is his trade value so far into 2021?

Infielder  Adam Frazier’s season has been very odd, at least for a player like him. So far, he’s been a bat-first glove second kind of player for the Pittsburgh Pirates which is a departure from his normal kind of production. So how does that affect his trade value so far in 2021?

Before Sunday’s game against the San Francisco Giants, Frazier was hitting .318/.384/.461 with 1 home run, but 14 doubles. He’s also walking and striking out at career-best rates. His 8.5% walk rate is a career-high while his 10.7% strikeout rate is a career-low. Overall, he has a .372 wOBA and 136 wRC+. Those would, by far, be career-best numbers.

But his defense has been poor at second base this year. So far, he has -5 DRS, -0.9 range runs above average, and a -21.5 UZR/150. Among qualified second basemen, he’s next to last in DRS and range runs and last in UZR/150. Outs above average, which usually pins him among the top 10-15 defenders in baseball, has him at -1 and in the bottom 19th percentile.

Going into this season most of Frazier’s value was in the defense he has played for the Pittsburgh Pirates. From 2016 up through 2020, he was a league-average hitter, posting a .273/.336/.413 line, .323 wOBA, and 100 wRC+. Meanwhile, he had +17 DRS, +4.1 range runs above average, and a 5.0 UZR/150 from 2018 to 2020 at second base. This also included two top-3 finishes in Gold Glove voting.

But the real question is is this sustainable?

This wouldn’t be the first time Frazier had a good 1-2 months of a season, far from it. In 2017, Frazier was hitting .308/.380/.429 with a .350 wOBA and 116 wRC+ through his first 150 plate appearances of the season, which lasted from the beginning of the year up through early June. Then for the rest of the season he only hit .260/.327/.385 with a .308 wOBA and 88 wRC+.

The following season, Frazier got off to an ice-cold start. He was hitting just .239/.323/.355 with a .302 wOBA and 88 wRC+ up through late June. He even got demoted for about a month. However, from late July onward, he batted .306/.357/.503 with a .375 wOBA and 137 wRC+ for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

2019 followed this trend yet again. .254/.311/.361, .286, 71 wRC+ hitter through June. .303/.361/.474, .354 wOBA, 119 wRC+ hitter for the rest of the season. Even in the shortened 2020 season, there were 2 different Adam Frazier’s. The one that had a .198.234/.330, .245 wOBA, 50 wRC+ through his first 111 PA’s. Last 123 PA’s? .271/.361/.402, .338, 111 wRC+.

Frazier sustainability will rely on if he can continue to hit the ball the way he is. He’s not a power hitter by any means. He only has an 85.2 MPH exit velocity and 22.8% hard-hit rate. Those are two of the worst marks in the majors. But he has the type of hits you like to see. His 30.4% line drive rate is tied with Jose Altuve for the third-highest rate in all of baseball. As you know, line drives are extremely productive as they have a .685 BA. He’s also avoiding ground balls. His 35.6% ground ball rate is well above the league average mark of 44%. He’s also hitting a flyball 34.1%, which is only slightly below the league average rate of 35%.

You also have to look at the demand and the rest of the market for second basemen. The Boston Red Sox may be in the market for a short-term fix at second base given that Christian Arroyo is injured and was only doing so so at the time of the injury, and Marwin Gonzalez hasn’t done so well with the bat this year either. But with Jeter Downs on the horizon, they don’t need a long-term answer at the keystone.

The Los Angeles Dodgers could use some help up the middle. Top prospect Gavin Lux hasn’t come around yet, and now Corey Seager may be facing an injury list stint. Most of his value is as a second baseman, but the Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, New York Mets, and New York Yankees may show some interest in Frazier to help their outfield.

The market for second base and middle infield capable players has a few competitors, but not many. If the Washington Nationals don’t start turning things around, they may look to former Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star Josh Harrison. The Baltimore Orioles likely deal veteran middle infielder Freddy Galvis. The Colorado Rockies will definitely be looking to move Trevor Story and possibly slugger Ryan McMahon if they get the right price back. However, aside from McMahon, Frazier would be the only other middle infield player on the market with control beyond the 2021 season.

If Frazier could keep up these batted ball rates, then his production at the plate would easily be more sustainable. But given his previous up-and-down performances, that isn’t an absolute. Plus he’s been uncharacteristically poor defensively at second base. So what exactly is his trade value?

Frazier will still probably net a 40+-45 grade prospect in the end. With this hot start, his value may peak into the 50 FV range. His value is at the highest it’s been for a while now. Possibly as high as it’s been since the end of the 2018 season. Plus while there are teams that are looking specifically for a second baseman, where most of his value is, he can really fit any team. He isn’t limited to just the keystone and can play the corner outfield spots as well.

If the Pittsburgh Pirates have any interest in moving Frazier now is the time. He’s gotten off to a hot start and even though he hasn’t been very good defensively this season, he’s been a Gold Glove candidate the past two seasons.