Pittsburgh Pirates: Examining the First Two Months of 2021 Season

Let’s break down the first two months of the 2021 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2021 season is in full swing. We’re over a month into the campaign and the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently sitting with a record. Overall, it’s been a very up-and-down season so far. The Bucs started the year 1-6 then went on an 11-5 run over their next 16 games. However, they’ve significantly cooled off. They’ve won just 6 of their last 23 games, falling to 18-28 on the season.

Through all of this, there have been some bright spots, some low spots, and some promising starts to this year. So let’s go through this team, analyzing the good, the bad, and the ugly, what could improve as the season progresses and what the rest of the season holds for this Pittsburgh Pirate team.

Infield/Catcher

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost Ke’Bryan Hayes just two games into the season, but the likes of Colin Moran, Adam Frazier, and Jacob Stallings have done their part offensively to try and make up for the loss of Hayes.

Frazier is currently slashing .335/.396/.462 with a .375 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Frazier has always avoided strikeouts and he’s doing it again this year with a 9.4% strikeout rate through 202 plate appearances. He’s drawing walks a bit more often this year with a 7.9% walk rate. Compared to his 7.4% walk rate from 2016-2020 and it’s a minor improvement, but he was approaching 10% earlier this season. However, his defense hasn’t been up to snuff compared to the last few seasons. Currently, he has -6 DRS, -1.6 range runs above average, and a -16 UZR/150. He also leads all MLB hitters with 62 base hits.

Moran is looking like a mix between his 2018-2019 play and 2020 play. Before an unfortunate injury, Moran was hitting .297/.352/.468 with 4 home runs and 7 doubles. All told, he had a .356 wOBA and 126 wRC+. Moran has a .171 isolated slugging percentage. If he keeps that up across an entire season, it’ll be a career-best mark across more than just a 60-game season. Though, walks are a bit down (8.2%) and strikeouts are a bit up (27.9%) for the now first baseman of the Bucs.

Last but not least is Stallings. Stallings is hitting .248/.356/.442 through 132 trips to the plate. Stallings is also carrying a career-best isolated slugging percentage mark of .195, but he’s walking at an outstanding 13.6% rate. Among all players with at least 120 plate appearances, he has the 23rd highest walk rate. He also has an outstanding 123 wRC+ and .35 wOBA to go along with his other strong offensive numbers. Of course, he’s kept up his Gold Glove level defense with +5 DRS and +1.1 range runs above average. There is a strong argument to make for Stallings to represent the Pittsburgh Pirates in this summer’s All-Star Game.

However, it’s not been all sunshine and rainbows across the infield. Hayes being placed on the injured list means that both Kevin Newman and Erik Gonzalez are getting more playing time than they should. Sadly, Newman has been downright awful this season. He’s currently sporting a 39 wRC+, .222 wOBA, and .497 OPS through 171 plate appearances. Though his defense at shortstop has been much better. He currently has +0 DRS, a +8 UZR/150, and -.9 range runs above average. Plus he’s been among the leaders in average in outs above average, ranking in the top 98th percentile.

Erik Gonzalez isn’t doing much better either with a 52 wRC+, .242 wOBA, and .543 OPS. He’s been one of the team’s main answers at the hot corner this season and he’s held his own defensively. He has +6 DRS, a 6.5 UZR/150, and +1 range runs above average.

Outfield

The 2020 season of Bryan Reynolds is looking much more like a sophomore slump in the weirdest Major League Baseball season ever. So far, he’s been an outstanding hitter. In 185 trips to the plate, the switch hitter is batting .298/.389/.472 with a .375 wOBA, 138 wRC+ and a MLB leading 16 doubles. Reynolds has increased his walk rate by nearly 2% from last year, going from 10.1% to 11.9%. He’s also significantly decreased his strikeout rate from 27.4% to 22.7%. Reynolds has been about an average fielder so far this year with 0 DRS, a -0.4 UZR, and +0.3 range runs above average. But he is in the top 91st percentile of OAA.

Gregory Polanco has also gotten fairly regular playing time this year, albeit with poor results. So far in 135 plate appearances, the former top prospect is only hitting .217/.289/.358 with a .282 wOBA and 78 wRC+. He’s still walking at a solid 9.6% rate and has a well above average hard-hit rate of 50%, but nothing can seem to go his way. He’s also been a poor defender in right with -5 DRS, a -11.4 UZR/150, and 0 range runs above average.

The last outfield spot has been a mixed bag, to say the least. The Pittsburgh Pirates have essentially been plugging and playing guys, trying to find a suitable third outfielder. The team opened the season with Anthony Alford as one of their starting outfielders. But after failing to collect a hit in his first 23 trips to the plate, the Bucs decided to DFA the former prospect.

Then it was Dustin Folwer’s turn. Fowler also struggled, having just 7 hits and one extra-base hit in 46 plate appearances. Since his DFA, the Pittsburgh Pirates have given Ka’ai Tom, Troy Stokes Jr., Ben Gamel and Wilmer Difo all a chance in the outfield. While this year isn’t a win-now season, it’d be nice to get some semblance of regularity in the third outfield spot.

Starting Rotation

JT Brubaker has been arguably the best starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He currently holds a 4.20 ERA, 4.81 FIP and 1.24 WHIP through 49.1 innings of work. Up until his previous two starts Brubaker was on fire. He still has a strong 5.6% walk rate to go with a 23.9% strikeout rate. Despite his 50.7% ground ball rate, he still has a 1.80 HR/9 as the long ball has been his biggest problem. His ERA estimators reflect a pitcher who should have an ERA around 3.50-3.60 with a 3.55 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA and 3.54 DRA.

As painful as it might be, we have to talk about Mitch Keller. Keller has been the very definition of inconsistent. He seems to follow every quality start with a blow-up start. So far, he really hasn’t had anything in between. What Keller’s future with the Pittsburgh Pirates is up in the air. He’ll show that ability to go 5-6 solid innings with a handful of strikeouts, but he hasn’t done it at least three games in a row this year. Overall, Keller has put up a 7.41 ERA, 4.85 FIP and 1.80 WHIP, while flashing less than inspiring stuff.

Offseason signee Tyler Anderson has also been a nice surprise this year while competing with Brubaker for the role of staff ace. He currently has a 4.73 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 1.22 WHIP through 51.1 innings. However, this was after a huge blowout loss against the Braves in his last start. His first 7 starts of the season saw him go at least 5 innings and give up no more than 3 runs. He had an 8 start streak of at least 5 innings as well. Overall, he still has a solid 23.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, albeit with a bit of a high 1.40 HR/9.

Prospect Wil Crowe has also gotten a chance to start this season. Crowe has shown some promise in his starts this season but has just a 4.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 5.03 FIP through his 25 innings as a starting pitcher. Walks have been an issue for the right-hander with a 10.2% walk rate, but he’s also given up his fair share of home runs (1.40 HR/9) and has struggled to get strikeouts (20.4%). Crowe has still been above average in exit velocity (88.7 MPH, top 53rd percentile), hard-hit rate (33.8%, top 84th percentile) while showing a fastball with 2484 RPM and averaging out around 94 MPH.

The last spot of the rotation was mainly handled by veteran Trevor Cahill before his injury. Like Keller, Cahill was extremely inconsistent following up each quality start with an extremely poor start. He’s pitched 35.2 innings with a 6.81 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He only has a strikeout rate of just 18.9%. But there were some bright spots about Cahill’s season. He only walked 6.9% of the batters he faced while only allowing home runs at a 1.01-per-9 pace. Cahill also had an outstanding groundball rate of 55.7%. Overall, Cahill had really solid ERA estimators including a 3.99 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, 4.20 SIERA,4.07 DRA and 4.62 xERA.

Opening Day starter Chad Kuhl made just 4 starts before going on the injured list. In these 4 starts he struggled to the tune of a 6.32 ERA, 8.13 FIP, 21.1% walk rate, just an 18.4% strikeout rate and he was allowing home runs at an alarming 2.30 HR/9 rate.

Entering the season there was a lot of concern about the Pirate starting rotation. Through the first 46 games of the 2021 season, these concerns have come to fruition as the Pirate rotation has been among the worst in the National League.

The Bullpen

The Pittsburgh Pirates have relied on Richard Rodriguez to be their closer. He’s been flat-out dominant allowing just a single earned run in 19 innings. He’s only walked a single batter. Rodriguez has seen his strikeout and swing-and-miss rates go down significantly. His strikeout rate went from 36.6% in 2020 to 23.4%. Both his whiff rate and chase rate are well below the league average as well. Though he’s below average in exit velocity, he’s been above average in hard-hit rate and has significantly decreased the amount of line drives hit off of him. His ERA estimators currently sit with a 3.87 SIERA, 4.66 xFIP and 5.42 DRA. They’re mainly down because of his lack of strikeouts this year. Still, one earned run and one walk in nearly 20 innings is outstanding.

Top relief prospect and Pittsburgh native David Bednar has also been outstanding. He currently has a 3.12 ERA, 3.55 FIP and a 0.98 WHIP through 17.1 innings. He has struck out batters at an astounding 32.4% rate and only walked them at a 5.9% rate. He’s also been good in terms of exit velocity (88.4 MPH), and hard-hit rate (33.3%). But home runs have been his biggest issue. His 1.56 HR/9 rate is really his only weak spot. He also has a really good 2.91 xFIP, 2.60 SIERA, although he does have a 4.13 DRA. Bednar could be one of the Pirates’ main late-inning options by the end of the season.

Chris Stratton and Clay Holmes have also been solid this year. Holmes has shown some better control this year with just a 6.7% walk rate. Chris Stratton has seen his strikeout rate fall from last year, but he’s been pretty decent all year. Lefty Sam Howard has also been a pretty decent arm but has struggled heavily with walks (17.4%) and strikeouts (1.80 HR/9).

Rule 5 pick Luis Oviedo has flashed some pretty impressive stuff but hasn’t gotten the results he’s wanted. Duane Underwood Jr. got off to a hot start but has struggled recently. Kyle Crick has also bounced back from a rough 2019-2020.

For the most part, the Pirate bullpen has been solid this season. Rodriguez, Bednar, Crick, Holmes and Howard have been reliable all season thus far. After getting off to a slow start, Stratton has responded with a terrific May, and Underwood Jr. has pitched well outside of two poor outings. When the Pittsburgh Pirates have been able to give their bullpen a lead they have been nearly unbeatable.