Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes Can Still Win National League Rookie of the Year

Pittsburgh Pirates’ highly touted prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes may have missed time due to injury, but still has a good chance of winning Rookie Of The Year.

Pittsburgh Pirates highly touted prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes made his long-awaited return from the disabled list on Thursday evening. He went 2-4 with a single and a triple. Going into the season Hayes was one of the top contenders for National League Rookie of the Year.

Hayes got his first cup of coffee in the Major Leagues in 2020 which was also what skyrocketed him into potential ROY conversations. Hayes stepped to the plate 95 times, batting .376/.442/.682 with a .464 wOBA, and 195 wRC+. 14 of his 32 total hits went for extra bases. In total, he had 5 home runs and doubles to go with 2 triples.

Hayes demolished the baseball. He had an average exit velocity of 92.8 MPH and a 55.4% hard-hit rate. He was also a top-tier defender having +4 DRS, an 8.9 UZR/150, and 0.5 range runs above average in just 198.1 innings at the hot corner. He would have been on pace for +20 DRS had he played a full season and if the season was longer than 60 games.

Hayes started 2021 with a bang, going 1-4 with a walk and a home run in his first game of the season. But in his second game, Hayes, who had reached first base on a walk in his first plate appearance, slid back to first on a pickoff attempt, but hurt his hand. This caused him to miss nearly 2 months and put some serious question into his chances of winning NL Rookie of the Year. However, he still has a good chance of winning the award.

National League rookies haven’t been the most impressive this year, at least in the position player department. There are only four in total with an fWAR above 1.0. The best position player rookie this year has been Miami Marlin middle infielder Jazz Chisholm. Another highly touted prospect, Chisholm has hit .271/.331/.475 with a .347 wOBA, and 125 wRC+. He’s led all NL position players in wRC+, fWAR (1.1), and is second to Diamondback rookie Pavin Smith in OPS and wOBA. He’s also been a solid defender at both second base and shortstop. However, he does have a 34.6% strikeout rate and walk rate of just 7.7%.

While a .806 OPS, .347 wOBA and 125 wRC+ isn’t anything to scoff at for a rookie, it’s not necessarily the highest bar ever set. We’re not talking about a 2017 Cody Bellinger or Aaron Judge season, or 2001 Albert Pujols or Ichiro season.

Hayes’s biggest competition may be a pitcher. Another young Miami Marlin standout, Trevor Rogers, has been dominating this year. Through 62.2 innings, the 23-year-old right-hander has an outstanding 1.87 ERA, 2.48 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. He’s struck out 30.5% of all the batters he’s faced, while only allowing 3 home runs with an 8.8% walk rate. Rogers has a strong 3.26 xFIP, 3.43 SIERA, and 3.78 DRA. The only rookie in the MLB currently with a higher fWAR than Rogers, who currently has a 1.9 mark, is Texas Ranger star Adolis Garcia at 2.0.

Hayes has a mountain to climb in Rogers. At his current pace, he’d have the best single-season rookie ERA since 1950 (min. 150 innings). But I believe Hayes can do it. He’s an extremely talented infielder who is arguably the most well-rounded at his position. Of course, things could change drastically. Hayes could struggle and hurt his chances, Rogers or Chisholm could struggle, and decrease their chances. There’s still plenty of season left to play. If Hayes plays at least 100 games and collects 400+ plate appearances, the queston as to whether he played enough to deserve the award shouldn’t be a massive issue for the Pittsburgh Pirates star.