Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting the Future Outfield Alignment

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of young and talented players throughout the organization, but which ones will make up their future outfield alignment?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a plethora of young talent throughout the farm system. They have some very exciting bats, a ton of high-ceiling pitchers, and an overall deep farm. The team once boasted a strong outfield mix consisting of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Mart  and a young Gregory Polanco.

They could, once again, have a strong outfield built from within eventually take over the three outfield spots. The team has some notable players who are projected to be long-term pieces, and eventually take over regular spots in the very near future. So I want to take a look at what three players we could see roaming PNC Park’s outfield for the Pittsburgh Pirates by the end of 2022.

Left Field: Travis Swaggerty

Travis Swaggerty was the organization’s first-round pick in 2018. Swaggerty was drafted as a highly athletic outfielder with some pop in his bat. Swaggerty had a solid 2019 season that saw him catch on fire in the second half of the season. All told, he hit .265/.347/.381 with a .341 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. Swaggerty walked at a fantastic 10.9% rate while keeping his strikeouts to a solid 22.1% rate.

This season Swaggerty got off to a solid start with Triple-A Indianapolis but will be out for an undetermined length of time after dislocating his shoulder. He was hitting .220/.330/.439 with a .345 wOBA and 109 wRC+.

Swaggerty was starting to turn some of that raw power into game power. His isolated slugging percentage went from .116 to .220. He was also walking much more (12.5%) while keeping his strikeouts very low (16.7%). The talented outfielder had a 26.7% line drive rate, compared to 15% in 2019 and a 36.7% ground ball rate, a massive decrease from his 49.3% mark from his last professional season. His bottom line could have looked better had it not been for a .220 batting average on balls in play.

Swaggerty’s glove, speed and arm aren’t in question. He has a 60-future fielding and arm grade, and a 65-future speed grade. The improvements Swaggerty made to his offensive game this year are very promising. Notably, he did it while completely skipping Double-A. Swaggerty could easily be a .260/.350/.450 hitter with 30 doubles, and 15-20 home runs by the time he reaches the majors. He’ll miss the rest of the 2021 season with shoulder surgery, but it’s to his non-throwing arm and shouldn’t have any long-term, lingering effects.

I have Swaggerty in left field for one big reason. Left field in PNC Park is massive. PNC has the deepest left field of any Major League Baseball stadium. With such a spacious area, the Pittsburgh Pirates essentially need a center fielder in left field. Swag’s bat should play up enough to remain in left field, and the guy’s bat I have in center will play up from that position as well.

Center Field: Bryan Reynolds

The Pittsburgh Pirates originally brought switch-hitting outfielder Bryan Reynolds up to the Majors in 2019 as a left fielder. However, his defense has improved to a point where he could easily man center field for the next handful of seasons. Plus his bat would be much more valuable up the middle than in a corner.

Reynolds had a .371 wOBA and 130 wRC+ throughout his rookie season. After a sophomore slump, he has bounced back tremendously in 2021. Through 226 plate appearances, Reynolds is batting .292/.389/.503 with a .386 wOBA and 146 wRC+.

Reynolds’s walk rate has improved every year he’s been in the Majors. He went from an 8.4% rate in 2019, to a 10.1% rate in 2020, and now has a 12.4% rate this year. He’s also only striking out 22.1% of the time, which is well below the 24% league average mark this season.

His success with the bat this season has stemmed from his strong 23% line drive rate, which is just .9% below his career-best mark from 2019. However, he has a career-best ground ball rate (42.4%), and fly ball rate (34.5%).

As a defender Reynolds has been about average in center field for the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 0 DRS, 0.3 range runs above average, a -2 UZR/150, but is currently in the top 81st percentile in outs above average. He currently ranks 49th with +2 OAA, tied with talented defenders such as Victor Robles, Michael A. Taylor, and top-tier defensive center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.

Right Field: Oneil Cruz

Sooner rather than later the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to have to make a decision with Oneil Cruz. Cruz is a shortstop prospect currently but has heavy competition at the position. Liover Peguero is a borderline top 100 prospect and one that could easily be one of the team’s best overall prospects by the end of 2021. They also have middle infielder Ji-Hwan Bae who is another notable shortstop/second base capable prospect. They could also pick up another middle infielder in the draft in Jordan Lawlar or Marcelo Mayer.

The 6’7″, 215 pound Cruz would have likely moved off of the physically demanding position, regardless of the competition there anyways. Though he can easily get to the ball at the position and has the pure arm strength to remain there, he’s struggled with accurate throws. But his arm and bat would easily play in right field.

Cruz missed part of the 2019 season due to a fractured foot. However, after a tumultuous offseason, the slugger has come back strong in 2021. Through his first 102 trips to the plate at Altoona, Cruz is batting .283/.347/.533 with a .250 isolated slugging percentage, and 5 home runs. He has an outstanding .386 wOBA and 141 wRC+. Cruz is also on pace for 30 home runs across a full season’s worth of plate appearances. He’s also shown some good base running, swiping 7 bags in 9 attempts.

Cruz is undeniably one of the sport’s top prospects when it comes to power. He has a 60-future game power grade and an 80-future raw power grade. He can leverage his huge frame to drive the ball very, very far. Cruz has struck out at a 26.5% rate, which has led to mediocre reviews for his hit tool. But he is walking at a solid 7.8% rate, which is an improvement over previous seasons.

Cruz has a huge arm, coming in with an 80-grade. Such an arm would be wasted at another position other than an outfield spot, shortstop, or third base. He’s athletic enough to remain in the grass long-term. It’s also possible that Cruz ends up in center, with Reynolds and Swaggerty in the corners, however, I have the slugger in right for now. Cruz could end up being a .270/.340/.500 hitter with 30+ bombs a year, which would be more than enough production in right field, along with some solid defense.