Pittsburgh Pirates: Proposing a High Risk, High Reward Richard Rodríguez Trade

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Richard Rodríguez could be on the Houston Astros radar. Could they be willing to part with this high-risk high-reward prospect?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best reliever on the trade market right now. That’s right-handed closer Richard Rodríguez. Through 27.1 innings, Rich Rod has a 1.91 ERA, 2.25 FIP and 0.74 WHIP. Rodríguez isn’t getting many strikeouts, coming in with a 23.1% strikeout rate. This compared to his 2018-2020 rate of 28.2%. But he’s putting up a walk rate of just 2.9% and has allowed just one home run.

Rich Rod isn’t getting many ground balls with a 28.9% ground ball rate but has a fantastic 13% infield fly ball rate. He’s in the top 90th or higher percentile in xwOBA, xERA, barrel percentage, while still ranking in the top 88th percentile of xBA, and top74th percentile of xSLG.

Though not all estimator stats look fondly on Rodríguez. He currently holds a 4.59 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA and 5.06 DRA. He has control through the 2023 season, but he’s still a risk given his poor ERA estimators. So I want to talk about a high-risk/high-reward trade proposal between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Houston Astros.

The headliner of this deal would be former 2016 first-round pick, Forrest Whitley. Whitley is the definition of a high-risk/high-reward prospect. The right-hander was once seen as baseball’s best pitching prospect. He even ranked as high as the 5th best prospect according to Baseball America in 2019.

Whitley definitely has an arsenal and the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm. He has a five-pitch mix. According to FanGraphs, his fastball, curveball and changeup are considered 60-grade offerings. His slider and cutter are graded out as 55-offerings. He throws in the 93-97 MPH range and tops out at 99 MPH. Whitley has plus spin on his fastball, coming in with 2500 RPM. His breaking ball has plenty of spin as well with 2900 RPM. Though he can get a bit spotty at times with his control, it’s nothing that would be a huge problem.

But the risk associated with Whitley makes him a very interesting prospect. The last time Whitley pitched was in 2019 when he tossed 59.2 innings across four different levels of minor league ball, surrendered 53 earned runs, having a 1.66 HR/9 rate, and 15.8% walk rate. He’s never had problems striking out batters and had a 30.9% strikeout rate in 2019, but it was the only bright spot to an otherwise poor season.

Some of his struggles could be attributed to shoulder fatigue. But this wouldn’t be his only injury. Whitley had to undergo Tommy John surgery this year, meaning he’ll miss the rest of the 2021 season. Though despite that, some still see him as a potential top rotation arm.

FanGraphs is more bullish on him than most sources. They have him as just a 40+ FV prospect now compared to a 65-FV prospect in 2019. However, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball Prospectus still see him as a top 100 prospect. It all comes down to how much the Astros value Whitley. Do the Astros still see him as the prospect Pipeline, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus does, or closer to the one FanGraphs see him as? It also depends on if the Pittsburgh Pirates are willing to take on the risk of taking on a pitcher who hasn’t pitched since 2019.

The Pirates would be taking on most of the risk here, but the Pirates should definitely see if they can get a bit of a lower-risk player alongside Whitley. A pitcher like Austin Hansen or Nivaldo Rodriguez would be an ideal second piece if we’re going based on FanGraphs’ rankings and valuing. These two are closer to MLB ready, but come with much less risk, and still have a solid 40 FV.

The Pittsburgh Pirates would be taking on a huge risk here. Sure, Forrest Whitley hasn’t pitched much, or even good for a few seasons now, but you can’t ignore the potential he still carries. A Richard Rodriguez trade headlined by a 40+ FV prospect, along with another 40 FV prospect is more than fair going just by FanGraphs’ prospect rankings.