Pittsburgh Pirates: Package Trade Deals Could Make Sense

The Pittsburgh Pirates have two of the best trade pieces on the trade market. Should they package the two together in a trade?

The Pittsburgh Pirates should be very active this trade deadline. Arguably their two most valuable trade pieces, infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier and closer Richard Rodriguez, are not only their most valuable players but two of the most valuable players that should be available in the trade market. But if the Pirates are to trade either Rich Rod or Frazier, should they trade the two separately, or together?

Let’s first take a look at each player starting with Frazier. Frazier has been great so far in 2021. In 318 plate appearances the left-handed hitting second baseman is hitting .330/.396/.477 with a .380 wOBA, and 144 wRC+. Frazier currently ranks among the best at his position offensively. He is third in wOBA, wRC+, 4th in OPS, and 6th in fWAR. Plus, he’s walking at a career-best 8.5% rate compared to his previous career best of 8.2% in 2018.

Much of Frazier’s success has been because of his strong 29.3% line drive rate, the 4th best mark in baseball. He has also avoided ground balls with his 36.3% ground ball rate ranking 22nd. However, it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the infielder. Though he’s having the best offensive year of his career, he’s having the worst defensive season of his career at second base. He has -1 DRS, -9 UZR/150, and -1.3 range runs above average this year. Outs above average, a stat he usually is among the league leaders in, only sees him as a very slightly above-average defender with +1 OAA.

Frazier’s underlying stats paint a much bleaker picture than his surface numbers suggest. His .331 xwOBA is roughly average, coming in at the 51st percentile. While his .290 xBA is in the top 90th percentile and his .360 xOBP is in the top 80th percentile, his .385 xSLG is in the bottom 25th percentile. It also hasn’t helped that he has never been able to hit the ball hard. Frazier is in the bottom 4th percentile in hard-hit rate (27.5%), and bottom 4th percentile in exit velocity (85.7 MPH).

All told, Frazier has a DRC+ of just 115, suggesting he’s closer to a 15% better than league average hitter than a 30-35% better than league average hitter. Plus he was about a league-average batter from 2016 up through 2020, having just a 100 wRC+, .323 wOBA, and .749 OPS through those five seasons.

However, Frazier is still having a good season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even if he regresses to a 115 wRC+, it would be the second-highest single-season mark of his career. Not only was he a two-time Gold Glove finalist at second base in 2019 and 2020 after leading most keystone defenders in multiple defensive statistics, but he can also hold his own at all three outfield positions. Plus, he’s not a rental. He has one-and-a-half years of control remaining.

Rodriguez is also having a career-best season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Through 29.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 1.84 ERA, 2.20 FIP, and 0.72 WHIP. Rich Rod has allowed just a single home run while allowing opposing batters to reach base via free pass just 2.8% of the time. Rodriguez is a flyball pitcher as he only has a 27.8% ground ball rate, but many of those fly balls have been infield flies. His 17.4% infield fly ball rate ranks 21st among all qualified relievers.

Though, like Frazier, Rodriguez’s underlying stats aren’t as pretty. He only has a 4.53 xFIP and 4.97 DRA. However, he does have a much better 3.76 SIERA and 2.34 xERA. Much of his worse ERA estimators have been because of his poor strikeout rates. He’s gotten just 23.4% of all batters faced down on strike three. This is a far departure from his 30%+ rates he has had in two of his past three seasons. Rich Rod is in the bottom 31st percentile in chase rate and bottom 23rd percentile in whiff rate. He also gives up hard contact quite often with his 91.4 MPH exit velocity (bottom 11th percentile) and 43% hard-hit rate (bottom 26th percentile).

Still, he’s affordably controlled through the 2023 season. Rodriguez is also in the top 90th or better percentile in xERA, xBA (.193), xwOBA (.243), xwOBACON (.303), and barrel rate (3.8%). Plus he’s well above average in xSLG at .352, which is in the top 76th percentile.

The first question is what team would be interested in acquiring both Frazier and Rodriguez from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Any team that is in contention for a playoff spot this season will look into Rodriguez. Good teams are always on the lookout for relievers, though some will be more than others. Frazier can also fit many teams, but the Pittsburgh Pirates will get the best return from a team in need at second base.

Currently, the most second base needy team is the Chicago White Sox. They recently lost young infielder Nick Madrigal for the rest of the 2021 season. Not only could Frazier be a regular fixture for the White Sox’ infield, but he could also provide some outfield help as well. Young and talented outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert have missed all or most of the season so far.

Another team that will be on the lookout for some second base capable help is the San Francisco Giants. The Giants All-Star third baseman Evan Longoria early in June and would miss upwards of 6 weeks. Though his replacement Wilmer Flores has held his own, their primary second baseman entering the season, Donovan Solano, has struggled. He only has a .692 OPS, 94 wRC+ compared to his .821 and 120 marks from 2019-2020. A few other teams that may look into Frazier to help sure up second base are the Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, and Washington Nationals.

It also depends on what the Pittsburgh Pirates will ask in a trade involving both Frazier and Rodriguez. On their own, they top out at a 45-45+ FV prospect each. If the Pirates want to go for more quantity, they could get two or possibly three prospects in the 40-40+ FV range for each. Though combined, they may get a prospect in the 50-FV range, plus another 40-40+ FV prospect.

If the Pirates can get a team to give them a 50-FV prospect plus another 40-40+ FV prospect for Richard Rodriguez and Adam Frazier, then they should definitely package the two veterans together. Think of the Jameson Taillon deal with one less player going back the Pirates’ way. Though two players, one who’s at the very least an average hitter with a history of well above average defense and another who’s proven himself in high leverage situations, both of which have 4 years of control remaining between the two, shouldn’t come at a cheap cost if put together.