Pittsburgh Pirates Facing a Decision with Cody Bolton

The Pittsburgh Pirates could lose right-handed pitching prospect Cody Bolton to the Rule 5 Draft in the offseason, but should they use him as a trade piece?

Going into the season one of the Pittsburgh Pirates more notable prospects was right-handed starter, Cody Bolton. However, a meniscus tear would cause him to miss the 2021 season before it even began. The Pirates will now have a hard choice to make with Bolton. Do the Pirates use one of their 40-man roster spots to protect him, or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft?

If Ben Cherington and company don’t see Bolton as a long-term piece of thePittsburgh Pirates, they aren’t going to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. However, it feels like it’s a bit of a waste to let him go for nothing. Bolton would almost certainly be selected by a team. So should the Pirates entertain the idea of including Cody Bolton in a trade?

The last time the Pittsburgh Pirates saw Bolton pitch was in 2019. He started the year off with High-A Bradenton where he put up outstanding numbers. Through 61.2 innings, he got his season started with a 1.61 ERA, 1.91 FIP, and 0.85 WHIP. Bolton nearly 30% of all the batters he faced with a 28.9% rate while keeping his walk rate just below 6% at 5.9%. Home runs were essentially a non-issue for the right-hander as he gave up just one.

When Bolton was promoted to Double-A Altoona, he struggled heavily, albeit in only 40 innings. He saw his numbers inflate to a 5.85 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 1.325 WHIP. Bolton’s biggest struggles were the long ball. Bolton’s home run rate went from just .15 to 1.35. This was mainly due to his ground ball rate going from a strong 46.7% mark, down to 34.2%. His flyball rate went up by 10% (35.3% to 45.3%) while his line drive rate also went up (18% to 20.5%). It also didn’t help that Bolton’s strikeout rate dipped below 20% to 19.8% and his walk rate rose to 9.6%.

Some of Bolton’s struggles may have been because of injuries he faced down the stretch of the season. Bolton didn’t appear professionally in 2020 because of the lost minor league season. He’s now going to be two years removed from appearing in a pro game. Despite that, FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline both rank him as a top 12 prospects Pipeline even has him as one of their 10 best prospects at #9.

Bolton has a four-pitch mix where all three offerings currently project as above-average pitches. He has a four-seam fastball that averages around 92-95 MPH with a high spin rate of 2450 RPM. He’ll also throw another variant of his fastball, a two-seamer that comes in with some sinking action. He’ll also use a slider that’s become sharper since he made his debut in 2017. His last offering is a change-up. FanGraphs see both his four-seamer and change-up as 50-grade offerings with his slider as a 55-grade pitch. Meanwhile, MLB Pipeline gives his fastball a 60-grade, his slider a 55, and change-up a 50. Bolton also has average to above-average control/command.

Cherington and co. seemed a bit skeptical of Bolton’s ability to pitch out of the starting rotation long-term. He was slated to start the 2021 season out of the bullpen where his stuff would likely play up. However, it’s a sign that the current regime is a bit skeptical of his long-term ability.

If the Pirates believe that a team will be interested in Bolton, then they should be willing to trade him. Bolton would likely be more of a deal sweetener than a prospect used to acquire controllable major league talent. The Pirates could add Bolton to a trade that is headlined by Adam Frazier, Richard Rodriguez, or even Tyler Anderson to get a better deal or get a prospect they are really interested in, and said trade partner is a bit hesitant to deal.

In any case, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have a decision to make with Bolton. If the Pirates do end up losing him, they shouldn’t lose him for nothing. If the Pirates can, they should add him to a trade package in order to get a better prospect or to pry a prospect away from a potential trade partner. The new regime already seems a bit uninspired by Bolton, but they shouldn’t let him go for nothing.