Pittsburgh Pirates: Richard Rodríguez Trade Proposal with the White Sox

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be looking to move relief pitcher Richard Rodriguez, which could intrigue the Chicago White Sox. Let’s take a look at a hypothetical trade proposal between the two teams.

One of the best relief pitchers on the trade market is Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed closer, Richard Rodríguez. So far, he’s had an extremely productive season. Rodrígue will definitely get some calls this upcoming trade deadline and one of those teams could be the Chicago White Sox.

Rodríguez has been having a strong season. In 37.1 innings, the right-hander has a 2.65 ERA, 2.60 FIP, and 0.80 WHIP. Walks and home runs have essentially not been a problem whatsoever for Rich Rod. So far, he has given up just 2 home runs and has a 2.9% walk rate. It’s good to see Rodríguez put up great home run prevention numbers as it’s something he’s struggled with in the past. Between 2019 and 2020, he had a 1.73 HR/9 rate. While he’s always been decent at limiting walks, he’s been on a different level this year.

Plus, many expected stats are well above average for Rodríguez. He’s in the top 91st percentile in xwOBA, top 79th percentile in xBA, and top 61st percentile in xSLG. Though there is some downside to Rodriguez. Many of his ERA predictors aren’t kind to him. He has a strong 2.84 xERA and solid 3.89 SIERA, but a 4.72 xFIP and a 5.31 DRA.

Another thing of note is his lack of strikeouts. After having a 30%+ strikeout rate in 2 of his previous 3 seasons, Rich Rod has a strikeout rate of just 22.1%. Both his whiff and chase rate are below 25% after being over that mark in 2020.

He’s also well below average in terms of hard-hit rate (45.2%, bottom 12th percentile), and exit velocity (91.4 MPH, bottom 8th percentile). He’s given up line drives 13.5% of the time, which is an outstanding mark. But he has a ground ball rate of just 29.8%. He’s a fly ball pitcher, but many of the fly balls he gets aren’t park leavers as indicated by the fact he has a 3.4% HR/FB ratio.

Rodríguez’s value will be brought down by his so-so ERA estimators and lack of strikeouts this year, but there’s still plenty of value to be had. He’s kept opponents to just a .200 BA and .231 wOBA in high leverage situations. He has multiple years of control remaining as he is controlled through 2023. A team looking at Rodriguez is looking at a reliever who could contribute as a closer to set-up man for the next handful of seasons.

The White Sox have dealt with many injuries to key players such as Nick Madrigal, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert just to name a few. But despite that, they’ve been able to stay ahead of the American League East pack by a wide margin. They’re currently 8.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians.

But like every contending team, they could use another relief pitcher. Liam Hendriks has been lights out for the White Sox. Young flamethrowers Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopech have also been good out of the pen. Jose Ruiz is another pitcher who’s done solid. Though Codi Heuer and Aaron Bummer have not been all that great. It’s also worth noting that Kopech and Crochet may move into the starting rotation within the next year or so. Kopech has already made 3 starts this year. The Sox’ have been building up both their workloads to make them potential starters in 2022.

Admittedly, the White Sox don’t have the same farm system they had a few years ago. The main reason being most of their prospects have graduated rookie status. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t anybody that wouldn’t intrigue the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The headliner of a potential Rodríguez trade between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox would almost have to be Jared Kelley. The White Sox selected the 19-year-old out of Refugio High School with their second-round pick and the 46th overall selection. Though it should be noted that both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline had him ranked in the top 20. Pipeline even so far as to rank him #12.

Kelley’s bread-and-butter is his fastball/changeup. His fastball averages out in the 93-96 MPH range and has topped out at 98. Both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline see this as a near-elite level pitch. FanGraphs grades it out as a future-60 offering while Pipeline has it as a 65.

His changeup has gotten outstanding reviews. Pipeline stated that it was the best in the draft. It has fade and sink, according to Pipeline, while having it as a 60-grade offering. FanGraphs likes it even more as they project it to be a 70-grade weapon in the future. It’s arguably the best changeup among any prospect. His breaking ball can get a bit inconsistent, but if he can find some better consistency with his slurve-like offering, you’re looking at a guy with two near-elite to elite offerings, and a third average to above-average pitch.

Given his strong ability to repeat his delivery and the feel he has for pitching, which MLB Pipeline praised about Kelley, refining that slurve into a harder, sharper pitch may not be all that hard. So far, he hasn’t pitched all that great to start his pro career, but you hardly can make any judgments off of 12.2 innings.

The second and final piece of the return would be infielder Jake Burger. Burger was once a highly touted draft prospect in 2017. The White Sox picked up the slugger with the 11th overall selection in the draft after bashing over 20 home runs in back-to-back college seasons and having an OPS over 1.000 in both seasons as well. However, things haven’t gone the way he probably wanted them to. Burger ruptured his achilles in February 2018. This kept him out all of 2018. He suffered a setback in a bruised heel which kept him out of the 2019 season. Then with no minor league season in 2020, Burger went into 2021 three full years removed from playing a professional game.

But that hasn’t seemed to slow him down. Burger, who never even got a chance to step to the plate at Double-A and had just 200 plate appearances above rookie-ball, immediately jumped into action at Triple-A like he didn’t just miss the last three seasons. Through 185 plate appearances, the 6’2, 230-pound third baseman has hit .322/.368/.596 with 10 long balls, and 15 doubles. All told, he has a MVP-like .409 wOBA and 149 wRC+. While he isn’t walking very much, he has put on a show at Triple-A. That power output has seemed to transition into the majors. He has 10 hits, four of which have gone for extra bases, in 40 plate appearances.

Burger has average or better grades for all his bat tools. FanGraphs projects his hit tool as a 50-grade with his game power at a 55 and raw power at 60. Burger has shown off some of that raw power in the major leagues with a 98 MPH exit velocity and 60.9% hard-hit rate through his small sample size of plate appearances.

Given his injury and already so-so at best defense at third base, he’d likely eventually move to first base. The Sox already have Yoan Moncada at the hot corner long-term, 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu locked down for another season, and young guns Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. The last three will see most of their time at first base and DH. Once Abreu hits free agency after next year, Jimenez will likely DH most of the time with Vaughn at first base. That’s also not conisdering whether or not they’d resign the veteran first baseman. With that, Burger is left with no real position. The White Sox did give him a few reps at second base down in the minor leagues. But he only is a 30-grade runner and more or less only tried there at Triple-A because of the mounting injuries and lack of playing time avaiable at 3B/1B/DH rather than them viewing him as a potential second baseman long term.

This is more than a fair package for Rodríguez. The Pittsburgh Pirates would be getting a pitching prospect who could be a number two starter within the next 2-3 years and a slugger who can help now at first base and eventually DH with the likelihood it returns in 2022. While Rodriguez’s underlying numbers are a bit worrying and he’s already 31, he still is a clutch pitcher who’s consistently gotten outs and has a few more years of control left. The Sox will need another quality reliever with control remaining as some of their current young relievers are likely to move into the rotation within the next year.

The return for the Pittsburgh Pirates gives them two things that are extremely important to a rebuild that could be nearing its conclusion. Help now and help later. Jake Burger gives them a power bat who can slot into the line-up now. He could be a long-term answer at first base and DH. Jared Kelley adds yet another talented young pitcher to the system. While the Pirates aren’t short on those, Kelley has a ton of upside that should help the ball club out by 2023-2024.