Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting Team’s Lineup by the End of 2022

Catcher – Jacob Stallings

Though the Pittsburgh Pirates have added a ton of catching talent in the past 8 months, much of it isn’t going to be ready until 2023 or 2024. Unless Carter Bins or Abraham Gutierrez hit huge strides over the next year, I have Jacob Stallings as the team’s backstop. Though that isn’t a problem at all.

Stallings went from a depth catcher to arguably one of the most underrated players at his position. He’s been about a league-average hitter this year putting up a .237/.328/.391 with a .317 wOBA, and 98 wRC+. Those are all career-best marks. His 11.3% walk rate and .153 ISO are also career-best marks. Though Stallings’ calling card is his defensive ability.

Stallings leads all of baseball in DRS. With +18, he outdoes top defensive right fielder Joey Gallo by 4, and the next closest catcher, Sean Murphy, has 9 fewer DRS. He hasn’t been as great at throwing out runners this year compared to prior seasons with a 22% caught stealing rate. But don’t weigh it too heavily. Caught stealing rate is far from a perfect way of looking at his defensive success. Though he has helped his pitchers out a whole lot. His +4.5 framing runs ranks 8th among all backstops with at least 200 innings caught.

Stallings is on pace for over 3.0 fWAR this year. He’s always been a fantastic defender, but his bat has slowly improved over time. His wRC+ in 2019 was just 82, then jumped to 93 in 2020, and now sits as about a league-average bat with a high-end glove.

First Base – Mason Martin

Mason Martin’s power potential is up there with some of the minor league’s best sluggers. So far this year at Double-A, he’s hitting .255/.329/.537 with 19 home runs, a .367 wOBA, and 128 wRC+ in 334 plate appearances. Martin has put up an outstanding .282 isolated slugging percentage, continuing to show his high-end power potential.

Martin’s game power is seen as a 60-grade tool in the future. Meanwhile, his raw power is in the 70-grade territory. His 6-foot, 220-pound frame helps him generate a ton of power. Martin also blasted 35 home runs in 2019 while having a .304 ISO. Plus he’s also considered an average defender at first base, which is why I have him here over designated hitter.

But to say there aren’t any red flags would be an understatement. Martin strikes out a ton. He currently has a 34.1% strikeout rate. That’s a 4.3% increase from 2019. Usually, he walked enough to at least dampen the blow of such a strikeout rate. However, that hasn’t been the case this year. Although he still has a respectable 8.1% walk rate, it still falls 2.8% short of his 2019 mark. Martin’s hit tool is only a 40-projected tool.

Though there are some concerns surrounding Martin, they’ll at least give him a shot. After all, MLB Pipeline considers him the 7th best first base prospect in the minor leagues. FanGraphs ranks him as their 26th best prospect despite the system is very deep.

Second Base – Rodolfo Castro

So far this season Rodolfo Castro has done enough for the Pirates to give him the nod to start at second base. Though a deep position throughout the team’s organization, I think that Castro will be the main second baseman for most of, if not all of 2022 until 2020 first-round pick Nick Gonzales arrives.

Castro got his promotion to the majors this year after a strong season at Double-A Altoona. The slugger hit .300/.349/.527 line with a .373 wOBA, and 132 wRC+. Castro slugged 11 home runs in 239 plate appearances. Plus he had a .227 ISO. Though he walked just 6.1% of the time, he had a solid 20.1% strikeout rate.

Castro has translated that power into the big leagues. He has a .475 slugging percentage, 5 home runs, and .271 ISO through his first 55 big league plate appearances. Plus he’s walking at a higher rate with a 7.3% walk rate. His 21.8% strikeout rate is also a solid mark. Castro needs to get the ball in the air more frequently. His 52.3% ground ball rate and 11.4% line drive are holding him back, especially given his solid power.

As a defender, he’s an average glove with a 50-future fielding grade by FanGraphs. He also has an average arm. Castro’s power potential as well as his ability to play second base, with him being able to fill in at shortstop and third base will get him more than regular playing time in 2022.

Shortstop – Diego Castillo

Acquired as one of the two players in the Clay Holmes trade, Diego Castillo is having a breakout year at Double-A. Before heading to the Pirates, he was hitting .277/.345/.500 with a .367 wOBA, and 128 wRC+. Castillo was putting up career-best power numbers, blasting 11 long balls in 249 plate appearances. He only hit 8 from 2015 up through 2019. His big power breakout is reflected in his .227 ISO. Castillo walked at a solid 8.4% rate, but only went down on strike three in 13.7% of his plate appearances.

Since arriving at the Pirates, he’s continued to hit similar to when he was with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate. Castillo has a .852 OPS, compared to .850 at Double-A Sommerset. His power has stayed relatively similar with a .490 slugging percentage and .215 ISO, though he has walked more (12.1%) and has struck out less (5.2%).

Castillo’s ability to avoid strikeouts has always been one of his biggest strengths. But part of his breakout was due to his 23% line drive rate and career-low 36.9% ground ball rate. Since arriving at the Pirates, he’s still hitting line drives at a 20% rate and avoiding ground balls (28.6%). Though despite that, he has a BABIP of .235. Sure, it’s a small sample size of 43 plate appearances, but still very unlucky. Plus he has walked 5 times and has 3 strikeouts.

Castillo is 23 and will turn 24 in October. Given his age and how well he’s done at Double-A, he should get a good look in the major leagues in 2022. If his power output isn’t a complete fluke, he could become a long-term piece of the Pirate roster.

Third Base – Ke’Bryan Hayes

Ke’Bryan Hayes is one of the long-term pieces currently already on the Major League roster. Now his 2021 season hasn’t been great. He’s only hit .250/.319/.388 with a .310 wOBA, and 93 wRC+. But there’s plenty of promising signs that this isn’t the real Hayes.

Hayes is still demolishing the baseball when he makes contact. He has a 91 MPH exit velocity and 47.6% hard-hit rate. Both of those would rank among the league’s best hitters. The raw power is there. Plus he’s making contact at a 79.1% rate, which would rank top 50 if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. But the problem has been the type of contact he’s made.

Hayes is putting up an uncharacteristically high 56.1% ground ball rate. That’s about 10% higher than his single-season minor league-high. His 17.1% line drive rate is also very low considering it usually sat around 20-22% throughout his minor league career. His 27% fly ball rate is also considerably lower than anything he did in the minor leagues. His launch angle of just 2.8 degrees, which is the 9th lowest in all of baseball (min. 100 batted ball events).

While Hayes never put up out-of-this-world minor league numbers, what we are seeing right now is not what Hayes is. He’s a whole lot of a better batter than this. He’s probably closer to a .280/.350/.500 hitter if he can put up even a league-average line drive rate because he has high-end raw power.

Hayes’s biggest calling card is his defense. Despite only playing 456.1 innings at third base this year, he has +10 DRS, an 8.2 UZR/150, and is in the top 93rd percentile of outs above average. If there is any player in the National League that can end Nolan Arenado’s 8 straight Gold Gloves, it’s Hayes.

Left Field – Bryan Reynolds

Another long-term piece that is already on the Pittsburgh Pirates Major League roster is Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds showed a ton of promise in his 2019 rookie season. After a sophomore slump in a very strange 2020 season, Reynolds has broken out even further and surpassed his 2019 production.

Through 455 plate appearances, the switch-hitting outfielder has a .305/.388/.526 line, has a .389 wOBA, and 145 wRC+. Aside from his batting average, all of those are currently career-best marks. He’s also blasted 19 home runs while having 26 doubles already. His HR total is already 3 past his 2019 amount and he could easily pass his 2019 doubles mark of 37.

He’s also walking more and striking out less. His walk rate has increased every year of his big league career and has reached a 10.8% mark this year. He has significantly decreased his strikeout rate compared to 2020, going from 27.4% to just 20.2%. Reynolds’ breakout is for real. He has a .287 xBA, .512 xSLG, .381 xwOBA, and 126 DRC+. Meaning, at the very worst, he’s somewhere in between his 2019 self and 2021 self.

Plus his defense has improved. Although DRS (-2) and UZR/150 (-6.4) don’t put him in the best of light, he’s in the top 98th percentile of outs above average. He’s mainly played center field this year. Though right now, I pencil him into left field. He has plenty of experience in left and given his solid work in center, his glove should play up, potentially to a Gold Glove level. Though it shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone if he’s still in center field by the end of 2022.

Center Field – Travis Swaggerty

Travis Swaggerty is the top outfield prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system. Their 2018 first-round pick has shown a ton of talent throughout the minor leagues. In 2019, he had a 120 wRC+ at High-A Bradenton. Then in 2021, he completely skipped Double-A and got right into Triple-A action.

Swaggerty looked good at Triple-A for the short time he was there this year. He batted .220/.330/.439 with a .343 wOBA, and 107 wRC+. Now on paper, those are solid, but not great numbers, being slightly above league average. But he did get unlucky. Swaggerty hit a line drive at a 26.7% rate while having a ground ball rate of just 36.7%. Despite his high line drive rate, the lefty outfielder had a batting average on balls in play of .200. Now, yes, batting average on balls in play needs a larger sample size than 48 plate appearances. However, in any case, a sub-.250 BAbip despite getting the ball in the air as often as he did is just plain unlucky.

Swaggerty has always had the raw power potential, having an 89 MPH exit velo and 41% hard-hit rate in 2019. He finally started to put it on display in 2021 with a .220 isolated slugging percentage. Swaggerty has a 50-hit tool, 60-raw power grade, and 45-future game power tool. Though his game power tool could reach new heights if his 2021 power output is for real.

Though his best tool is his speed and defensive ability. FanGraphs gives his speed a 65-grade and his fielding a 60. He also has the same arm grade with a 60. Swaggerty and Reynolds could be interchangeable between left field and center field given that Reynolds has played more than adequately in center field this year, but Swaggerty being considered a better overall defender. Though like with Reynolds, if he ends up in a corner rather than center, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Given that Reynolds, Matthew Fraizer, and Jared Oliva are the only other two players that could see time in center field next season, and Reynolds having plenty of experience in left field, Swaggerty should see a decent bit of time in the majors next year. He probably would have gotten a fair bit of playing time this year had it not been for shoulder surgery cutting his season very short.

Right Field – Oneil Cruz

The Pittsburgh Pirates will likely move Oneil Cruz to a different position. Aside from Diego Castillo, the Pirates have a ton of other shortstop prospects such as Liover Peguero, Ji-Hwan Bae, Maikol Escotto, Tucupcita Marcano, Hoy Park, and potentially Bubba Chandler. The team has already gotten him familiar with the position. He played some there during Spring Training and has gotten stretched out there at Double-A.

Cruz has huge power potential. The 6’7″, 210-pound slugger has hit .289/.349/.538 with a .381 wOBA, and 137 wRC+. So far, it’s arguably been his best season yet with single-season career-high marks in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS. Though he has walked just 7.9% of the time, he’s only struck out in 22.6% of his trips to the plate.

Cruz has a 60-future game power grade and 80-raw power grade. He’s able to leverage his huge frame in order to generate the amount of raw power he has. Though he only has a 35-grade hit tool, he’s hit well at every level. Just hasn’t walked very much, nor has he struck out a ton either.

Cruz is fast enough to play an outfield spot. He also has an incredibly strong arm, one that FanGraphs sees as an 80-grade tool. Cruz, at best, is an average defender at shortstop. Though his athleticism and hands at shortstop should play fine in right field.

Designated Hitter – Colin Moran

The 2022 season will be Colin Moran’s 5th season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Assuming he isn’t traded, he will likely be part of the team’s regular line-up in 2022. The likelihood is that the designated hitter will return in 2022. In the chance it returns, Moran should be placed at DH mainly because of his poor glove.

Since arriving with the Pirates in 2018, he’s been about a league-average hitter. He’s hit .272/.332/.425 with a .323 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. Now those aren’t great numbers for a designated hitter. But Moran has always had better power potential than his bottom line numbers suggest. Moran showed some of that power potential in 2020 when he had a .225 ISO, admittedly in a small amount of plate appearances (200). So far, he’s been injured for most of 2021.

Though Moran’s glove has been poor since getting regular reps with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Moran was originally a third baseman but had -27 DRS and a -12.2 UZR/150 between 2018 and 2019. Moran started getting regular reps at first base in 2020, but he hasn’t been good at first base either. He has -4 DRS and -11.2 UZR/150 between the last two seasons.