Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting Starting Rotation at the End of 2022

Previously, we took a look at what I project as the Pittsburgh Pirates end of 2022 lineup. Today, let’s look at a projection of their starting 5 pitchers.

Recently, we took a look at a potential version of what the Pittsburgh Pirates line-up looked like at the end of the 2022 season. Given that the Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton of good talent throughout the minor leagues, we should see a decent amount arriving to the major league level within the next 1-3 seasons.

Much of this higher end talent is pitching. Since becoming the Pirate general manager in the 2019-2020 offseason, many of the prospects he has acquired are pitchers. In the 2020 draft, all but one of his draft picks were pitchers. This past offseason in his three big trades, he acquired 7 pitching prospects. Many of his worthwhile picks this past draft were also arms (albiet yong ones). Plus he got a few more pitchers this past trade deadline.

So with that, let’s take a look at what the team’s starting 5 pitchers could be at the end of 2022, with this being a group that could feature multiple pitchers who play a big role on the next contending Pirate team.

Roansy Contreras

Roansy Contreras was ranked as the 2nd best pitching prospect in the Pirate farm system by the Rum Bunter staff. Acquired as part of the Jameson Taillon trade, he’s been outstanding since the trade. He was sent to Double-A this year where he has dominated. Even though he’s been injured for a few weeks, he has developed into a guy with low-end #1, high-end #2 starting pitcher potential.

So far in 46 innings, he has a 2.35 ERA, 2.39 FIP and 0.91 WHIP. Contreras has seen his strikeout rate take a huge rise over the past year. After sitting at just 21.1% in 2019, he is now striking out over 35% of all the batters he has faced (35.5% to be exact). Plus he’s given up home runs at just a .59-per-9 rate. He’s always been good at limiting the long ball, but he’s been even better this year. His 52% ground ball rate and 11% line drive rate are career bests.

Contreras is throwing a whole lot harder this year than in 2019. He’s sitting around 96-98 MPH after averaging out around 90-94 MPH before his arrival. He already had plus spin on his four-seamer. With his velocity and spin, he could have a 60-70 grade fastball on his hands. Combined with a breaking ball that has shown sharper break, and a change-up that always projected as above average, you’re looking at a very strong combination of pitches.

The large increase in velocity and break hasn’t affected his control very much, if at all. He’s walked just 6% of all the batters he has faced so far this season. His value has skyrocketed over the past season. He should start the 2022 season out at Triple-A. Assuming he doesn’t get hurt, Contreras could be in the Major Leagues before June 2022, or shortly after.

Carmen Mlodzinski

Now it might seem early for Carmen Mlodzinski to be in the Major Leagues. But he’s pitched well at High-A. He should start the season at Double-A to start 2022, if not Triple-A depending if he gets a taste of Altoona this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates have seemed to be a bit aggressive with the promotion of some of their higher end prospects, so Mlodzinski’s advanced stuff could lead to him being in the upper-majors to start 2022. Plus he’ll be in his age 23-season. Old enough to at least get him his first taste of the Majors.

So far this year, Mlodzinski has pitched to the tune of a 2.63 ERA, 3.86 FIP and 1.00 WHIP in 41 innings at High-A Greensboro. The 22-year-old has struck out a ton of batters. He has a 33.3% strikeout rate. Plus he has a solid 8.6% walk rate. Home runs have struck him more than once though. It’s been his biggest weakness, but his 1.1 HR/9 rate isn’t awful either. It could go down given he has a strong 46.7% ground ball rate. A lower HR/9 means a lower FIP. This is reflected in his 3.56 xFIP.

Mlodzinski’s sinking fastball comes in around the mid-90’s, but he has shown that he can reach back, and throw it through the zone in the upper-90’s. With his heat, his fastball is seen as a future-60-grade offering. Mlodzinski’s breaking pitch can be seen as a cutter, slider, or two completely separate pitches. Either way, his cutter-like slider sits in the low-80’s. FanGraphs grades out two pitches. The slider version is only seen as a 50-pitch, but his cutter is a 55-pitch. Finally, there’s his change-up. It has some sinking action as well. It’s a solid third or fourth pitch.

Mlodzinski has shown solid control as well as good stuff. He should be a quick riser throughout the Pirates’ system. Mlodzinski could be a mid or late season call-up in 2022. He should be in the rotation by September at the latest. 2022 will be his age 23-season after all.

Bryse Wilson

Bryse Wilson was part of the package for Richard Rodriguez. Wilson was once a high ranking prospect in the Atlanta Braves’ system. At the end of 2018, MLB Pipeline ranked him as the team’s 9th best prospect. Pretty decent considering the 8 prospects before him were top 100 prospects by their measure.

Wilson has pitched solid in the 3 games he’s played with the Pittsburgh Pirates so far. He’s given up 8 earned runs in 15 innings of work, but 4 of those runs came in his most recent game. He has a solid 8/3 K/BB ratio as well. All 2 of his home runs given up came in his last outing.

Wilson only throws in the 93-95 MPH range, but he has a good feel for where his offering is going. He also throws a sinker, changeup, curveball, and slider with regularity. None of his offerings are over-the-top elite-level given his lack of velocity, spin rate, or break. But his 60-projected command help them play up.

Wilson has looked outstanding as a Pirate so far. He never got a good, long look in the major leagues by the Braves. Before this year, the most innings he threw in the major leagues from 2018 through 2020 was 20. Maybe all Wilson needed was consistent playing time, knowing he’d get a fair shot in order to find success.

Omar Cruz

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired southpaw Omar Cruz in the Joe Musgrove trade. Although not a high-end prospect like some of the arms we’ve talked about, Cruz should be a solid back of the rotation arm. The left-hander should get a taste of big league action in 2022 as he’s moved up the Pirates’ farm system pretty fast.

So far this year, Cruz has pitched 70.2 innings between High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona. The southpaw has put up solid numbers including a 3.73 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. Cruz has prevented home runs at a .9-per-9 rate while having a 23.3% strikeout rate. Though he isn’t a Greg Maddux, he does have a solid 8.4% walk rate. Cruz’s most recent outing was poor, which has inflated his numbers a bit.

Cruz only throws around 90-92 MPH, but he shows a large amount of confidence with the offering. It’s seen as an average offering by MLB Pipeline. His curveball is a plus offering with MLB Pipeline seeing it as a 55-grade pitch. It’s an overhand curve that comes in with a ton of spin. Cruz’s change-up is a third average offering, but plays up because of his deception and arm speed (as per Pipeline).

Cruz may not be the most exciting pitcher in the Pirates’ farm system, but he’s yet to struggle at any level of the minor leagues. He’s a lefty with pitchability and command. 2022 will be his age 23-season. There’s a good possibility he gets a rotation spot very early into the season. A month of work at Triple-A could be all that he needs in order to get a spot in the Pirate starting rotation.

Other Potential Arms

The Pirates have a few other options they could turn to, so let’s at least explore and take a glance at some other pitchers you may see in the starting rotation by the end of the 2022 season.

JT Brubaker

JT Brubaker was a pretty solid pitcher in the first half of this year. He had a 4.47 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. He had a strong 4.6 K/BB ratio, but home runs were what hurt him the most with a 1.8 HR/9. Plus he got a bit unlucky, indicated with a 3.83 xFIP. The second half of the season has been rough. He has a 8.78 ERA, 7.74 FIP, and 1.66 WHIP. His HR/9 has risen over an entire home run with a 3.25 mark. Depending on how the Pittsburgh Pirates view him, they may move him to the bullpen, somewhere he thrived at the beginning of 2020, or try and see if they can rediscover the solid starter he was pre-all-star break.

Max Kranick

Max Kranick had an electric debut, firing 5 perfect innings with 3 K’s. But he’s given up 16 earned runs in his last 15 innings. Like with Brubaker, Kranick may eventually be moved to the bullpen. His stuff may play up given that he’s shown some solid offerings, but just not enough to play as a starting pitcher in the Major Leagues. But the jury is still out on Kranick.

Wil Crowe

Wil Crowe has been solid in the second half of this year with a 3.68 ERA and .250 batting average against him. However, Crowe has been dancing through the raindrops. He has some ugly underlying numbers including a 5.49 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, and 4.53 xFIP. He’s given up his fair share of home runs and walks, but if he can continue to shows some promise as a back of the rotation arm, he could be in the running for the #5 spot to start 2022. If he can continue to do what he’s done, the 5th spot might be his for a good part of the ’22 season.

Ricky DeVito

Ricky DeVito was acquired in the Rodriguez trade. Ranked as the Pirates’ 39th best prospect per FanGraphs, DeVito was putting up solid numbers at the Braves’ High-A affiliate. He had a 2.66 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP in 20.1 innings of work. Next year will be his age 23-season. So the Pirates might push him up through the system a bit faster given his age.

Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller was once a high-end prospect, not just in the Pirates’ system, but in all of baseball. He’s yet to prove himself in the major leagues despite being given many chances to do so. Yet, he’s still 25-years-old. His age and prospect pedigree just a year or two ago will earn him another chance at the start of the season. But his future is becoming very uncertain, especially considering the sheer amount of young pitching depth now in the minor leagues.

Steven Brault

Left-hander Steven Brault has looked like a good back of the rotation starter over the past 2 seasons. It’s only been 57.1 innings though and the Pittsburgh Pirates might capitalize on his trade value, especially considering that he has a spotty past. Though the Pirates might bet on his current performance and keep him around for next season.