Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting Starting Rotation at the End of 2022

Carmen Mlodzinski

Now it might seem early for Carmen Mlodzinski to be in the Major Leagues. But he’s pitched well at High-A. He should start the season at Double-A to start 2022, if not Triple-A depending if he gets a taste of Altoona this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates have seemed to be a bit aggressive with the promotion of some of their higher end prospects, so Mlodzinski’s advanced stuff could lead to him being in the upper-majors to start 2022. Plus he’ll be in his age 23-season. Old enough to at least get him his first taste of the Majors.

So far this year, Mlodzinski has pitched to the tune of a 2.63 ERA, 3.86 FIP and 1.00 WHIP in 41 innings at High-A Greensboro. The 22-year-old has struck out a ton of batters. He has a 33.3% strikeout rate. Plus he has a solid 8.6% walk rate. Home runs have struck him more than once though. It’s been his biggest weakness, but his 1.1 HR/9 rate isn’t awful either. It could go down given he has a strong 46.7% ground ball rate. A lower HR/9 means a lower FIP. This is reflected in his 3.56 xFIP.

Mlodzinski’s sinking fastball comes in around the mid-90’s, but he has shown that he can reach back, and throw it through the zone in the upper-90’s. With his heat, his fastball is seen as a future-60-grade offering. Mlodzinski’s breaking pitch can be seen as a cutter, slider, or two completely separate pitches. Either way, his cutter-like slider sits in the low-80’s. FanGraphs grades out two pitches. The slider version is only seen as a 50-pitch, but his cutter is a 55-pitch. Finally, there’s his change-up. It has some sinking action as well. It’s a solid third or fourth pitch.

Mlodzinski has shown solid control as well as good stuff. He should be a quick riser throughout the Pirates’ system. Mlodzinski could be a mid or late season call-up in 2022. He should be in the rotation by September at the latest. 2022 will be his age 23-season after all.