Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential 2022 Opening Day Rotation Options

The best part of the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system is their pitching depth, but what starters could we see in the opening day rotation?

One of the Pittsburgh Pirates strengths throughout their minor league season is their pitching depth. There should be a ton of roster overturn over the next year with many of the players being pitchers. But some, like Carmen Mlodzinski and Roansy Contreras, probably won’t start the season in the starting 5, likely being call-ups later down the line into summer. So who are the five guys that have the inside track for rotation spots?

Among the Pirates’ newest additions, right-hander Byse Wilson has pretty much secured himself a spot as a starting pitcher. Wilson was a former top prospect in the Braves organization, ranking as high as the 80th best prospect in baseball per FanGraphs. Pretty impressive considering that at the time, the Braves had then many highly touted starters like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Touki Touisaint, and Luiz Gohara. Though with a ton of pitching depth, Wilson never got an opportunity for regular starts as a Brave and was sent to the Pirates as part of the Richard Rodriguez deal.

Wilson’s numbers may not look great since arriving in Pittsburgh. He has just a 4.91 ERA, 5.34 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP through 40.1 innings of work. But he’s failed to reach the fifth inning just twice so far as a Pirate. While his 13.6% strikeout rate is poor, as well as his 1.79 HR/9, he’s only allowing walks at a 5.9% pace. Overall, it’s easy to envision a Tyler Anderson-like starting pitcher. A guy who will go out every five days and give you a chance to win with 5+ solid innings. Not an ace by any means, but a good #4 or #5 starter.

The Pirates will probably give Mitch Keller another shot to prove himself. Keller was formerly one of baseball’s most premier pitching prospects. After showing a good bit of promise through his 2019 rookie campaign, Keller struggled in 2020. Both seasons saw him get highly unlucky and highly lucky. This year, he’s still pretty much a mixed bag.

In 88 innings and 20 starts, Keller has a 6.41 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and 1.74 WHIP. Keller does have a solid 1.02 HR/9, but a poor 20.7% strikeout rate to go with a 10% walk rate. Though Keller is still showing some solid stuff being in the top 74th percentile of fastball spin rate and top 73rd percentile of curveball spin rate. I’d also be lying if I said Keller hasn’t shown any promise this year. In 10 of his starts this year, he has given up 2 or fewer earned runs and 1 or fewer 5 times. He’s also struck out 5+ batters in a game 9 times. Overall, it’s almost like he’ll follow up a very good start by a very poor start.

Again, Keller has failed to show any consistency despite, quite often, showing the talent to be a very solid, might I say even good starting pitcher. Given that 2022 will only be his age-26 season, the Pirates will surely see if Keller can find any consistency. I’m still a believer that if he can be consistent, he’s a very good SP.

Another guy they’ll give another chance to is JT Brubaker. Brubaker is another homegrown talent by the Pirates. This year, he has had a 5.36 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and 1.295 WHIP. But the biggest downfall for Brubaker this year has been home runs. He’s surrendered 28 in 124.1 innings, leading to a 2.03 HR/9.

Though there’s much more under the hood that suggests that he can be a quality starter. To start, he has a healthy 24% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Brubaker has an above-average whiff and chase rate as well. His underlying numbers are also promising, having a 4.00 xFIP, 4.03 SIERA, and 4.29 DRA (92 DRA-, 8% better than average). So in the end, his only struggle has been the long ball. Brubaker was shut down in early September due to shoulder inflammation. Though if he’s healthy, he likely has an inside track for a rotation spot.

If healthy, lefty Steven Brault will likely command a starting role. The Pirates’ lefty looked very solid in 2020, having a 3.38 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.2 WHIP in 42.2 innings of work. Brault had posted a career-high 21.3% strikeout rate and career low .42 HR/9. Though he was still dishing out his fair share of walks, having a 12.4% walk rate.

However, Brault would open up the 2021 season on the injured list. The southpaw wouldn’t make his season debut until August 4th and has only pitched 27.2 innings before being placed back on the IL, this time for the rest of the season. Brault did continue his solid 2020 campaign, reeling off 18.2 innings allowing just 4 earned runs, but his last 9 innings saw him surrender 14 earned runs. Brault has previously been named as a guy who could get traded, but also a potential extension candidate, and a lot of that could hinge on how he does in 2022.

One of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects, Miguel Yajure should also be given a starting role at the outset of 2022. Had it not been for an injury that kept him out for a few months, Yajure probably would have been part of the rotation by mid-2021. Instead, the talented right-hander will probably be given the full extended look next season.

Yajure was arguably the most known prospect of the Jameson Taillon deal at the time. Coming off 2019 where he had a strong 2.14 ERA, 2.51 FIP, and 1.075 WHIP through 138.2 innings between High-A and Double-A, Yajure would go into 2020 as one of the Yankees’ best pitching prospects behind the likes of fellow highly touted right-handers Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt.

After being traded to the Pirates, Yajure looked pretty solid during his two games in his new major league uniform, showing some quality stuff on the mound. But like stated earlier, would miss a few months. Though since returning to the mound, he’s only allowed 11 earned runs in 30.2 innings of work while posting a solid 3.11 K/BB ratio. Though home runs have been his biggest struggle, he never had an HR/9 above .5 going into this year. Maybe a small sample size or an injury could be contributing factor to a larger home run rate this year.

Overall, Yajure is considered the 73rd best prospect in baseball per FanGraphs. He throws five pitches, including a four-seam fastball (55-projected), cutter (60-projected), change-up (55-projected), curveball (50-projected), and a slider (not graded by either FanGraphs or MLB Pipeline, but did have a high spin rate in 2021 when he used it) giving him five offerings that are considered average or better. Though he only averages out in the 90-94 MPH range, he has excellent command (50-curred, 60-projected), and plus spin on his fastballs and breaking balls.

One guy that has really made his case to be in the starting rotation next year is left-hander Dillon Peters. Peters pretty much came out of nowhere, being a contract purchase from the LA Angels. He has tossed 23.2 innings putting up a 2.66 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP.  Peters has a solid 7.8% walk rate, albiet with a 19.6% strikeout rate. But he’s given up just a single home run with a ground ball rate aboe 50% at 50.7%.

Not only has Peters induced groundballs at an outstanding rate, but he has an above average 87.7 MPH exit velocity and 37% hard hit rate. Peters’ newly added sinker has been one of the biggest reasons for his success with a -1.1 RV/100. Peters’ excellent results could lead to the Pirates being a bit more aggressive in trade talks involving Brault since Brault has already been given multiple extended looks in the big leagues but Peters hasn’t and he’s done exceptionally well in his, admittedly small, sample size worth of innings.

Right now, that is who I could see as part of the rotation to open the year. But there are plenty of other players that will be in the running for a spot. Wil Crowe will probably be considered for a starting spot, especially if Brault or Brubaker open the season injured. Max Kranick has gotten some starts in 2021 but maybe tried out as a bullpen piece given his strong splits in the first few innings he pitches.

Still, you can’t rule out the possibility of him being given a shot again as a starting pitcher. Omar Cruz may also be in consideration given his solid performance at Double-A, but even if he doesn’t make the 26-man roster, he’ll likely be given the first call as he’ll probably start 2022 at Triple-A. Connor Overton also looked quite solid in his first start, although that was more of an ‘open’ than a start. Still, he was very good at Triple-A and has displayed some nasty stuff. It’s also quite possible the Pirates sign a veteran starting pitcher to a short-term, 1-2 year deal.