Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Minor League Statistical Leaders

OPS, Slugging percentage, wRC+, Isolated Slugging Percentage
Nick Gonzales
.950, .565, 150, .262

Unsurprisingly, the Pirates’ highly-touted Nick Gonzales leads in many offensive categories. The Bucs selected Gonzales with the 7th overall selection in the 2020 draft. Seen as one of the best pure hitting players available, Gonzales got his professional career started off with a bang at High-A Greensboro.

Gonzales hit .302/.385/.565 with a .405 wOBA, and 150 wRC+. His wRC+ (weighted runs created plus, which is a measure of how good the player was to the league average while also factoring in park factors and league factors, and 100 is average), OPS (on-base+slugging), slugging percentage, and isolated slugging (slugging percentage-batting average) was the best among the Pirates’ minor leaguers. Though he did barely beat out Matthew Fraizer in wRC+, who had a 149 mark, and Endy Rodriguez in wOBA, who we’ll discuss later.

Gonzales did have a tad high of a strikeout rate at 27.4%, but he lowered it as the season went on. Through the final 2 months of the season, Gonzales’s strikeout rate was a reasonable 23.3%. Plus he had a healthy 10.8% walk rate overall this season.

The only real knock you could make on his season is his batting average on balls in play sitting at .388. While that is a bit high, Gonzales had a line-drive rate of just under 30% (27.9% to be exact). He hit more flyballs than ground balls with a 35.6% ground ball rate and 36.5% fly ball rate. His batted ball rates were going to lead to many balls falling for hits.

Gonzales showed a ton of pop, blasting 18 long balls in just 369 trips to the plate. He put himself on pace for nearly 30 home runs and 40 doubles this season. His .262 ISO, as stated earlier, was the best in the farm. This season should only further push him up prospect boards.

wOBA
Endy Rodriguez
.410

As stated earlier, switch-hitting backstop Endy Rodriguez just barely edged out Gonzales for the lead in wOBA, a stat that gives weight to all on-base outcomes and on the scale of OBP (think of a more advanced OPS). While Gonzales had a .405 mark, Rodriguez ended 2021 with a .410 wOBA. Overall, he was one of the best hitters in the minors for the Pirates.

Coming over from the New York Mets in the Joe Musgrove swap, Rodriguez posted a .294/.380/.512 line through 434 trips to the plate. Along with that, he blasted 15 long balls and had a 140 wRC+. Plus he ran out 25 doubles.

Rodriguez’s hit tool has always been one of his big selling points, along with his defense behind the dish. But he ended up with a solid .218 isolated slugging percentage. This is also the third straight professional season where Rodriguez had a strikeout rate below 20% (17.7% this year) and a walk rate above 10% (11.5%).

Rodriguez is arguably the Pirate catcher of the future. He does have plenty of competition at the position, but his plus defense behind the dish may give him the edge over his competitors. Regardless, it was a very promising season for the talented backstop.

Walk Rate (batter)
Hudson Head
15.7%

Outfielder Hudson Head was another player coming over to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Joe Musgrove trade. Head was a highly touted high school outfielder going into the 2019 draft. While he fell to the third round, he arguably has mid-to-late-first round talent but fell because scouts didn’t get a good look at him with Head also playing football.

Head’s first full season as a professional ballplayer was a bit odd. Overall, he hit .213/.362/.392 with a .364 wOBA, and 113 wRC+. His walk rate was the best among Pirates’ minor leaguers at 15.7%. No other Pirate prospect came within 1%. Plus he had 15 long balls and a solid .181 isolated slugging percentage. But it came with the caveat of a 31.6% strikeout rate.

Head had a solid 22.1% line drive rate, 42.3% ground ball rate, and 35.6% fly ball rate. Those aren’t awful numbers, but clearly, the issue this year was the swings and misses. In his defense, he ended the season on a high note, putting up a strong .259/.380/.517 line, .410 wOBA, and 141 wRC+ through his final 71 plate appearances of the season (August 29th through September 19th).

Head has the potential to be a five-tool player. He’s shown solid pop, good speed, a plus glove, and plus arm out in the grass. If he can make more consistent contact, he can reach that high-water mark. He’s only 20-years-old, so he has a few more years to figure things out. Though if he can, he could be one of the Pittsburgh Pirates best prospects.

On-Base Percentage
Matthew Fraizer
.388

Among the Pittsburgh Pirates breakout players throughout the farm system, none had one as good as Matthew Fraizer did. The outfielder went into 2021 as a light-hitting, speedy outfielder. While he kept the speedy outfielder part of his description, he was far from just a light-hitting bat.

Throughout 499 plate appearances at High-A and Double-A, Fraizer put up a .306/.388/.552 with a .402 wOBA, and 149 wRC+. He also slammed 23 total home runs, which also led all Pirates. Fraizer’s big power output was reflected in his .242 isolated slugging percentage.

Fraizer also displayed solid plate discipline, having a 21.6% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk rate, which led to a fantastic OBP. The speed he was known for was still there with 15 stolen bases. Fraizer managed a ground ball rate of just 37.2% while having a solid 22.5% line drive rate. His 40.5% flyball rate was the likely source of his big power boost.

Given his solid production at Double-A and 2022 being his age-24 season, Fraizer will surely get a shot in the major leagues next season, barring injury or a sudden drop in performance. His outstanding season put him on MLB Pipeline’s prospect map as he is currently ranked as their 23rd best prospect.

Strikeout Rate (batter)
Lolo Sanchez
16.5%

Like Fraizer, Lolo Sanchez went into the season as a light-hitting, speedy outfielder. But he also had a breakout campaign at High-A Greensboro this season. Along with his speed, he showed off some solid pop, but not at the cost of his plate discipline.

Sanchez put up a .264/.372/.453 line, .385 wOBA, and 124 wRC+. Along with his overall good performance, Sanchez blasted 17 home runs while having a .190 ISO. Just for reference, he only had 13 home runs in his first 1323 professional plate appearances.

Sanchez was always a low-strikeout kind of batter, but his increase in power didn’t affect that. He still had a strong 16.5% strikeout rate. Plus he put up a 12.6% walk rate, tied for the best of his career since 2016. He also showed plenty of speed with 30 stolen bases. Like with Fraizer, much of Sanchez’s increased power has to do with getting the ball in the air more often. His 25.1% LD% was a career-best by far and his 40.1% FB% was also a career-high.

Sanchez will be entering his age-23 season and will probably start the season at Double-A. He is Rule 5 eligible this upcoming off-season, so the Pirates may be inclined to protect him from being selected, especially if they think he can be a potential option in the grass next season, or in 2023.

ERA, HR/9
Adrian Florencio
2.37, 0.47

Now, let’s move on to the pitching side of things. Starting it off, we have yet another big breakout season, this one coming from right-hander Adrian Florencio. Florencio was one of the Pirates’ international signees in the 2018-2019 off-season. After a rough first pro season, he flourished this year.

Florencio put up a 2.37 ERA, the best among all Pirates pitchers. All told, he pitched 95 innings while also having a strong 3.25 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Florencio struck out nearly 30% of all the batters he faced (29.8%) but also had a solid 7.6% walk rate. He was also the best Pirates’ minor league starter in the home run rate department, having a .47 HR/9.

Despite his fantastic home run rate, he only had a 39.7% ground ball rate, 25.8% line drive rate, and 34.5% fly ball rate. Florencio’s batted ball rates were the only negative part of his season. With 2022 being his age-23 season, Florencio may get pushed up through the system a bit faster. He spent all of 2021 at Low-A Bradenton, so him finishing out 2022 at Double-A or even Triple-A isn’t out of the question.

FIP, xFIP, WHIP, Strikeout Rate (pitcher)
Roansy Contreras
2.63, 2.96, .93, 35%

We have yet another big-time breakout player, this one being one of the most notable. The Bucs acquired right-hander Roansy Contreras as one of the four players in the Jameson Taillon trade. While he wasn’t the most highly touted piece of the puzzle when he was sent over from the Yankees to the Bucs, he is now one of baseball’s more noteworthy pitching prospects.

All told, Contreras has pitched 58 innings this season, posting a 2.64 ERA, 2.63 FIP, and .93 WHIP. Both the FIP (fielding independent pitching, which is a measurement of how good a pitcher is in terms of the three-true-outcomes) and WHIP (walks and hits per inning on average) lead the league, but those are far from the only stats he has the #1 spot in. Contreras struck out 35% of all batters faced, another best among Pirates’ minor league arms. He almost had the best walk rate as well with a 5.6% BB%. In terms of xFIP (expected FIP that also takes into account fly ball rate), his 2.96 was the only sub-3 mark in the system.

That’s all without taking a look at his fantastic batted ball rates. He induced a grounder at a 46.5% rate while his line drive rate sat at just 12.4%. Among all minor league pitchers, regardless of level, he had the 17th best opponent line drive rate in at least 50 innings of work.

Contreras had a big uptick in fastball velocity, saw him add sharper break to his curveball, and his change-up has always projected as above average. With plus command, Contreras has looked like a steal so far.

The right-hander entered the season as one of the Pirates’ top 30 prospects. Though now, he ranks as one of their top 5 prospects and FanGraphs even ranks him as the 56th best prospect in all of baseball. Now at Triple-A, Contreras has made enough of a mark to make himself a name to watch as a prospect who should make some sort of contribution to the 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Walk Rate (pitcher)
Trey McGough
5.4%

Among the Pirates’ lesser talked about names, left-hander Trey McGough silently put up some pretty solid numbers at Double-A Altoona. While he isn’t one of the Pittsburgh Pirates top prospects, as many of the other names we’ve taken a look at today, his season is at least worth a mention.

McGough posted a 3.19 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP in 113 innings. The southpaw only struck out 19.7% of batters faced but kept a strong 5.4% walk rate. Plus he kept home runs to a minimum. His HR/9 of .64 was the 4th best among Pirate minor league pitchers. This was across 113 innings (95 at Altoona, 18 at Greensboro).

Clearly, Trey is more of your control/command type of pitcher rather than a power arm. But his batted ball rates were even better than his team-leading 5.4% walk rate. McGough induced ground balls at a 48.8% rate. That’s good to start with, but paired with a 14.5% LD% and you’re looking at a very good pitch-to-contact/command type guy.

While McGough may not be one of the Pirates’ best minor league pitchers, his solid campaign at an upper-level of the minor leagues deserves some recognition. Maybe the Pirates can find something in him, even if that’s just an early-2010’s, Jeff Locke. There’s no such thing as too much pitching depth.