Pittsburgh Pirates: Previewing 2022 Triple-A Roster

The Pittsburgh Pirates Triple-A affiliate roster might start the season more exciting than the major league roster, but who could you expect to see at Indianapolis?

This season the Pittsburgh Pirates Triple-A affiliate’s roster, the Indianapolis Indians, wasn’t all that exciting. Miguel Yajure and Travis Swaggerty were exciting to watch to start the season but missed a good chunk of the year. The latter lost the entire season due to a dislocated shoulder. Many of the players were more of organizational depth than actual prospects.

But things are starting to look very promising with the Pittsburgh Pirates rebuild. The Triple-A roster as a whole could look a whole lot stronger to start the 2022 season. The Pirates have also been somewhat aggressive with their minor league promotions, so many top prospects may be looking to open the 2022 season at Triple-A.

With so many potential prospects that could make their Triple-A debuts to open the 2022 season, I think it’s worth at least previewing their potential opening day. Quite honestly, it may be more exciting than the Pirates’ major league Opening Day line-up.

Many of the team’s top prospects will be looking to open 2022 at Indianapolis. With so many noteworthy prospects just one step away from the major leagues, the rebuild looks like it may start to bear fruit by next season. It’s one of the most promising developments for Pirate fans who should be excited to see these prospects make a potentially large impact in the Major Leagues.

First Base

The Pirate Triple-A affiliate’s first baseman for most of 2021 was Hunter Owen. Owen, who was the Bucs’ 25th round pick in 2016, provided slightly below league average numbers, though gave them some solid power with 20 long balls and a .216 isolated slugging percentage. But they should get a big upgrade to start the 2022 campaign.

The Bucs promoted top first base prospect, Mason Martin, to Triple-A at the end of September. The left-handed slugger is ranked as one of the top 10 first base prospects in the sport by both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline. He played most of the season at Double-A where he put up a solid .242/.318/.481 line, .342 wOBA, and 118 wRC+. Plus he smacked 22 long balls while having a .239 ISO.

Martin’s first taste of action at Triple-A has been a mixed bag. He’s stepped to the plate 23 times and has struck out 6 times with just 4 hits. But 3 of those hits have been home runs. Plus he provides some solid glovework at first base. Martin’s biggest issue is his strikeouts, which he went down on strike three at a 34.2% pace at Altoona. But the more concerning part was that his walk rate dropped to a career-low 8.1% mark.

Still, the absolute power potential Martin brings to the table means that if he can get his strikeout rate down, even just below 30%, he could be a very powerful bat in the major leagues. He’s one of the Pirates’ highest risk prospects given his three-true-outcome nature. Though even if all he amounts to is an early-to-mid-2010’s Pedro Alvarez, but with average or better defense at first base, I’m sure most would take that kind of production.

Second Base and Third Base

Given the number of players the Pittsburgh Pirates have up the middle, I’m deciding to take a look at players that will probably see time at second base, as well as third base. After all, a handful of these players have experience at both positions.

There are a few guys who could be starting at second base for the Indians. The first is Rodolfo Castro. The infielder got off to an outstanding start to the 2021 season at Double-A, having a 133 wRC+ and .373 wOBA through the end of July. He got promoted to the big leagues and while he showed some serious power potential, he did have his struggles and was sent back down to Altoona. He would go on to have a -44 wRC+ in his next 73 plate appearances, which is very surprising.

Though since being promoted to Triple-A, he’s seemed to have turned things around. It’s a small sample size of just 28 plate appearances, but he already has 8 hits, 3 of which have been home runs, and 2 more doubles. Castro mainly played second base in the majors, so he’ll likely have an upper hand at the job at Triple-A.

But you also can’t rule out Diego Castillo earning the job to start the season. Castillo, who was acquired in the Clay Holmes trade, has done nothing but hit this year. In 430 plate appearances across the two Double-A affiliates (Altoona and Somerset) and Triple-A (Indianapolis), Castillo is batting .278/.357/.489 with a .369 wOBA. He’s had a massive boost in pop, blasting 19 home runs and having a .211 ISO. He more than doubled his home run total from 2015-2019.

Castillo has 65 plate appearances with the Indians this year. So far, he’s batted .286/.431/.531 with a .417 wOBA, and 157 wRC+. He’s drawn more walks than he’s struck out (13/10 BB/K ratio) while showing good power with a .245 ISO and 3 long balls. Castillo could also see time at shortstop as well as third base.

Tucupita Marcano will likely spend a good portion of the 2022 season at Triple-A. The headliner of the Adam Frazier trade was almost unfairly promoted. He skipped High-A, Double-A, and  Triple-A to appear in the majors for 25 games and 50 plate appearances for the San Diego Padres.

Marcano had a solid start at Triple-A with the Padres, putting up a .351 wOBA, and 102 wRC+. Not bad for a guy who never played above Low-A. After being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, he struggled to get things going, but he’s gotten better as the month has gone on. Marcano has displayed excellent plate discipline, having 51 walks and just 58 strikeouts in 402 plate appearances. Highly praised by experts for his strong ability to make consistent contact and hand-eye coordination, 2022 will be Marcano’s age-22 season. He’s had experience at both middle infield positions and has started to play some outfield. Plus he has more than enough games played at the hot corner to see some innings there as well.

Finally we have Jared Triolo. The right-handed batter made up a strong infield consisting of Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero by manning third base. Throughout 473 plate appearances, Triolo batted .304/.369/.480 with a .371 wOBA, and 128 wRC+. Triolo showed off some solid pop, blasting 15 home runs, running out 29 doubles, and putting up a .176 ISO. While his plate discipline wasn’t that of Juan Soto, he still put up a solid 8.9% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate. Plus he swiped 25 bases.

Triolo is projected to be a good defender at the hot corner. However, with Ke’Bryan Hayes, he’ll have to find another position to play full-time in the majors. Luckily for him, he has experience at shortstop and left field (in college). He could likely play both right-side infield positions as well. While Triolo would be completely skipping Double-A and doesn’t have the same talent as either Swaggerty or Mlodzinski, two guys who likely aren’t going to get any playing time at Altoona, he will be entering his age-24 season. Old enough that he should be starting at Triple-A.

Shortstop

It’s pretty clear who’s going to start at shortstop for the Indians. Top slugging prospect Oneil Cruz will likely get the first crack at the position. Cruz spent a good portion of the season at Double-A where he hit .292/.346/.536 line, .377 wOBA, and 136 wRC+. He blasted 12 home runs while swiping 18 bases, and having a .244 ISO. Cruz put his power on display with many of his long balls being no-doubters.

Cruz’s first taste of Triple-A pitching was almost god-like. He only had 29 plate appearances but blasted 5 home runs with 11 total hits. He also drew 8 walks and only had 5 strikeouts. Now very small sample size, but how can you not be impressed by a 370 wRC+ in that sample size? Cruz was recently promoted to the big league club, so while I doubt he starts the year out at the major league level, you also can’t rule out the possibility, especially considering he went 3-9 with a home run and the 7th hardest hit ball in the Majors during 2021.

The other player with plenty of experience at shortstop who will likely get a start in 2022 at Triple-A is Ji-Hwan Bae. Bae manned the other side of second base with Cruz. He put up a very solid .278/.359/.413 line with a .343 wOBA, and 118 wRC+ in 365 plate appearances. Bae has elite-level speed and used it to swipe 20 bases. Plus he hit 7 home runs, 7 more than he hit in 2018 and 2019. Bae mainly played second base but has a ton of experience at shortstop. He may also get some time in the outfield. With so many middle infield prospects, the Pirates will have to accommodate somehow, and Bae has started to play some center field.

In the event that the Pittsburgh Pirates do decide to keep Cruz in the major leagues to start 2022, they have plenty of shortstop capable prospects. Most of the prospects I talked about for second base also hvae experience at shortstop. Like stated earlier, Bae also has plenty of experience at short despite mainly playing the keystone this year. Plenty of good and highly talented options to start 2022 at short for the Indians.

Outfield

One of the Pirates’ more underrated prospects, Travis Swaggerty will likely try and get his feet back under him after missing most of the 2021 season at Triple-A. Swaggerty’s 2019 season saw him display some good plate discipline and put up a 120 wRC+. He just didn’t hit for any power. The power seemed to come around this year though. While he only was able to collect 48 plate appearances, Swaggerty showed a good amount of promise in those plate appearances. He batted .220/.333/.439 with a .343 wOBA, and 108 wRC+. He continued to draw walks at a strong 12.5% rate and only went down on strikes 16.7% of the time. Plus with 3 home runs and a .220 ISO, the raw power many saw in Swaggerty started to be translated into game power.

Don’t let the batting average fool you. Swaggerty got very unlucky in his first games at Triple-A. The left-handed outfielder had a 26.7% line drive rate. Plus he had a ground ball rate identical to his flyball rate, sitting at 36.7%. Despite his outstanding batted ball rates, he only had a .200 batting average on balls in play, lower than his actual BA (likely because he had 3 home runs). That’s a very similar batted ball profile to Toronto Blue Jays’ all-star slugger, Teoscar Hernandez (25.6% line drive rate, 38.2% ground ball rate, 36.2% fly ball rate), yet he has a .351 BABIP. It’s also similar to Nick Castellanos (26.7% line drive rate, 37.7% ground ball rate, 35.5% fly ball rate, .344 BAbip), and Jeimer Candelario (26.4% line drive rate, 39.3% ground ball rate, 34.3% fly ball rate, .344 BAbip). Needless to say that considering how Swaggerty put the ball in play, he should have been a .280+ hitter rather than sitting near the Mendoza line.

Swaggerty also has a plus glove, strong arm, and good speed. He’s more than capable of manning center field with gold glove level defense at the position. There’s a ton of talent many overlook simply because his batting average, a very poor measurement of a player’s offensive contributions and especially so on its own, isn’t sparkling. He’s a potential borderline five-tool player and should have already been in the major leagues. Still, the talent is there and the Pirates have no reason to promote him immediately as the 2022 season starts. He should get warmed up at Triple-A before hitting the majors.

Canaan Smith-Njigba will be to Swaggerty’s right in left field. Acquired in the Jameson Taillon trade, he could be the 3rd player of that trade to make the major leagues. The left-handed batter was one of the more notable prospects at Double-A Altoona. He stepped to the plate a total of 266 times posting a 274/.398/.408 line, .364 wOBA, and 127 wRC+

Smith-Njigba, despite not putting on display, has good power potential. He has 60-grade raw power but hasn’t fully translated that into game power. Still, he has the plate discipline part of his game down. He walked at a strong 16.9% pace, albeit with a tad high 24.8% strikeout rate. Smith-Njigba’s batted ball rates were poor, having a 10.9% line drive rate and 65.3% ground ball rate. Despite that, he had a .365 BAbip.

Smith-Njigba will likely be limited to just leftfield and designated hitter. He doesn’t project as very fast, nor as an outstanding fielder. But he has the offensive potential to be a good left fielder. The left-hander was promoted, along with Cruz, Castro, Martin, and another outfielder I’m about to bring up. Smith-Njigba hasn’t done all that well, but he, like many of the new promotions, only has a small sample size to his name, 18 plate appearances to be exact. He may also see time at DH given that there is a handful of outfield capable players on the roster.

If protected in the Rule 5 Draft, Cal Mitchell will man right field for the Indians. Mitchell had a solid season at Altoona. He posted a .280/.336/.429 line with a .332 wOBA, and 106 wRC+. Mitchell blasted 12 home runs as well. He did have a poor 5.7% walk rate, but his strikeout rate of 16.9% was, by far, a career-best. Plus he swiped six bags, another career-best mark.

Mitchell mainly played right field for Altoona, so that’s likely going to be where he plays for Indianapolis. He’s on the slower side and only projects as an average glove. He also has about average projected power (both game and raw), and a 45-projected hit tool. Though it’s suggested that he has more power than he’s shown so far. Mitchell may not be one of the Pirates’ most exciting prospects, but if he becomes a solid bench power bat, it’s more than enough.

If Smith-Njigba spends most of his time at DH, or Mithcell is not protected by the 40-man and is selcted, then Matthew Fraizer will end up in one of the two corner outfield spots. Fraizer had a massive breakout season at High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona. Fraizer had one of the best offensive seasons among the Pirates’ minor leaguers. Throughout 499 plate appearances, the outfielder hit .306/.388/.552 with a .402 wOBA, and 149 wRC+. He smacked 23 long balls while showing good plate discipline. Fraizer posted an 11.2% walk rate and solid 21.6% strikeout rate.

While a lot of Fraizer’s production was at High-A, he was still good overall at Double-A. In 149 plate appearances, Fraizer batted .288/.356/.492 with a .366 wOBA, and 129 wRC+. Fraizer still showed good pop with a .205 ISO, as well as an 8.7% BB% and 22.8% K%. Fraizer may not be the highest ceiling prospect, but he could easily be one of the Pirates’ starting outfielders if his breakout wasn’t just a fluke.

There’s also a chance that Fraizer starts the year out at Double-A since he didn’t get all that much time there. Though based on how aggressive the Pirates have been with some of their prospects (granted, their better prospects), there’s a good chance he starts at Triple-A. Plus 2022 will be his age-24 season, old enough that starting at Triple-A is warranted.

One last outfielder that may get the call to start 2022 at Indy is Jack Suwinski, the other part of the Frazier trade. The outfielder got off to an outstanding start to the season, batting .269/.398/.551 with 15 home runs in 267 PA’s, a .412 wOBA, and 150 wRC+ with the Padre Double-A team. While he was still quite solid with the Pirate Double-A affiliate, the problem was he wasn’t showing much power. He still hit .252/.359/.391 with a .337 wOBA, and 110 wRC+, but he saw his isolated slugging drop from .282 pre-trade to just .139 post-trade.

Suwinski drew plenty of walks, posting an outstanding 15.6% walk rate. Though that came at the cost of a 27.8% strikeout rate. Suwinski does have some sneaky speed as well. He swiped 11 bases and is considered an average runner. He also has a strong arm and is a good glove out in the corner spots. Like many other names we’ve talked about, Suwinski will be in his age-23 season. If he can hit for power while continuing to draw walks at the rate he has while showing off some good fielding, he may end up as a pretty solid outfield option for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the near future.

Pitching Staff

Most of the minor league pitchers, like a handful of their players, were more depth than anything else. James Marvel, Steven Wright, and Beau Sulser ate up a handful of starts. Though the 2022 Indianapolis Indians starting rotation will start things off with two very impressive pitching prospects.

The first will likely be Roansy Contreas. The Bucs acquired Contreras in the Taillon swap. While at the time he looked like a solid pitching prospect, his stock would skyrocket over this past season. At Double-A, Contreras would put up a 2.65 ERA. 2.74 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP through 54.1 innings of work. The right-hander struck out a ton of batters, putting up a 34.9% strikeout rate. Plus he had a strong 5.5% walk rate and 0.83 HR/9.

The big reason for his rise in stock was his improved stuff. The right-hander showed a large increase in velocity, as well as more break on his slider. Contreras was promoted to Triple-A at the end of the 2021 season and even made his major league debut. He pitched 2 innings, allowing just 3 hits, a walk, and struck out 4. While Contreras did make his debut, he’ll likely at least get a few more innings down at Triple-A before he makes the big move to the majors.

The other big-time pitching prospect that will start at Triple-A is Carmen Mldozinski. The Pirates picked Mlodzinski with the 31st overall selection in the 2020 draft. A right-hander with a high ceiling, Mlodzinski did well at High-A Greensboro. He put up a 3.93 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP through 50.1 innings of work. Mlodzinski was a strikeout machine, having a 30% K-rate. His walk rate and home run rate were a bit high though at 9.6% and 1.25 per-9. However, neither were awful either.

Mldozinski’s overall numbers may not have been great, but they were solid, to say the least. Plus they were a bit inflated after a few poor starts at the end of the year. The numbers don’t tell the whole story though. Mlodzinski throws into the upper-90’s with his sinker. His breaking ball, which can be seen as a cutter or slider, sits in the low-90’s. Both are considered above average to well above-average offerings. Plus he has a good feel for his change-up, which gives him 3 average or better pitches. His floor could be a mid-rotation starting pitcher, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could well surpass that.

Between the two, Contreras will probably get a long look in the major leagues in 2022. Mlodzinski barely has 50 professional innings under his belt. Both are very highly touted right-handed pitchers in the Pirates’ system and while not every single pitcher at Triple-A is going to be a top prospect, there are a few other names worth mentioning as arms that have a good chance of starting 2022 at Triple-A.

One of those notable names is Omar Cruz. Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Cruz started the year at High-A, but with solid numbers there, he was quickly promoted to Double-A. Cruz pitched 70.2 innings at Altoona, posting a solid 3.44 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.302 WHIP. Now Cruz didn’t get that many strikeouts having a K% of just 19.9%, a big departure from his 30%+ rates from the seasons prior. However, he still had a strong 7.3% walk rate and .76 HR/9. Cruz is more of a flyball pitcher, but he still had a line drive rate of just 17.5%.

Cruz may be a soft tosser, but he’s put up good numbers at all levels of the minor leagues he has played at. 2022 will be his age-23 season. Right now, I have all three of Contreras, Mlodzinski and Cruz finishing out the season in the Pirate Major League rotation. He’s easily a guy you could see take over a regular role during mid-season, possibly even earlier.

Among the remaining pitchers that will likely be part of Triple-A’s pitching staff, left-hander Trey McGough will almost certaintly be among the new promotions. McGough had quiet, but solid season down at Altoona where he was more than good enough to earn the call to Triple-A. Top relief pitching prospect Yerry De Los Santos was brought up, along with the group that included Contreras, late into the 2021 season. Blake Cederlind, another noteworthy relief prospect, will probably get to pitch a few innings at Triple-A after returning from Tommy John surgery. A few other top relief prospects such as Jose Soriano and Luis Oviedo may also get things started off at Indy.