Pittsburgh Pirates: Searching for a Long-Term Answer at First Base

First base has always seemed to give the Pittsburgh Pirates trouble when finding a regular, long term answer. This is something that needs to be resolved soon.

Throughout the 2010s, no team probably had more turnover at any position than the Pittsburgh Pirates did at first base. Almost every year, there was a new starting first baseman. From Jeff Clement to Ike Davis and Garrett Jones, there was no semblance of consistency at the position for the Pirates.

The revolving door slowed down at the end of the 2010s with Josh Bell manning the position, but his inconsistent bat paired with awful defense led to him having a sub-5 fWAR throughout his time in Pittsburgh (for reference, 2 fWAR in a single season is considered average) and was traded during the 2020-2021 offseason.

They also weren’t able to develop any other first base prospects. Will Craig never developed and Jose Osuna couldn’t translate his solid minor league numbers into any sort of consistent Major League production.

The Pittsburgh Pirates can’t have this happen in the 2020s. The team has a ton of middle infield prospects, outfield prospects, a handful of young backstops, as well as a multitude of young and talented pitchers throughout the farm system. However right now, first base is the position they have the fewest players at.

Currently, the highest-ranking first base prospect in the system is Mason Martin. Now don’t get me wrong, the talent is there for Martin. But there are some major red flags to consider with Martin. The slugger batted .242/.318/.481 with a .342 wOBA, and 118 wRC+ through 471 plate appearances at Double-A.

Martin showed off his big power potential with 21 home runs and a .239 isolated slugging percentage. Once he got promoted to Triple-A, he blasted 3 home runs in just 27 plate appearances, but this came with 10 strikeouts and just 1 walk.

A lack of walks and a whole bunch of strikeouts plagued Martin’s season. Martin struck out at a career-high 34.3% rate this year while walking at a career-low 7.8% rate. While he previously had a strikeout rate in the low-30’s and a walk rate that hovered around 12%, the direction each has trended in the past year is definitely concerning.

The only other first base prospect in the system is Alexander Mojica, who is still very far off from the Major Leagues. While Mojica only had an 87 wRC+ at Low-A it was his age-18 season. He was about the age, if not younger than many of the players at the Pirate Florida Coast League affiliates.

The power potential is there as he already stands at a 6’1″, 195-pound frame, but again, he won’t be in the majors for quite a while. It may take until 2025, his age-22 season, to reach the big leagues. The Pirates are looking to be competitive by 2023 and while he may eventually fit into the picture, you can’t go a handful of seasons without a proper first baseman if Martin doesn’t pan out.

The Pittsburgh Pirates could move one of their other prospects over to first base. Third baseman Jared Triolo had a great season at High-A Greensboro. If his bat wasn’t a fluke this year, he may see some time across the diamond. Triolo won’t see a whole lot of time over at third base with Ke’Bryan Hayes having the position locked down for the foreseeable future, and shortstop, his other position, is taken up by about a half dozen other prospects. He could see some time in the outfield, but his best shot at regular playing time may end up being first base if he can continue to hit.

The Pittsburgh Pirates could also move one of their catching prospects out from behind the dish to get some time at first base. Endy Rodriguez has already gotten a handful of games played at the position throughout his professional career. Henry Davis projects as a below-average defender behind the dish, so the team could try and mitigate his defensive struggles by letting him learn some first base.

If the Pirates feel they can get another first base prospect through trade or the draft, that is another avenue they could explore. They don’t have very much left to trade as Colin Moran, Ben Gamel, and Chris Stratton are their likeliest players to be traded, and even then, they won’t fetch back much, so the overall chances they are dealt (unless it’s an overpay or exactly what Ben Cherington wants) aren’t the best. Though if they do end up dealing any of those three, they need to focus in on first base capable prospects if possible.

They could go with a similar strategy in next year’s draft, going under slot with their first pick, over slot with their next 3-4 picks, then going way under slot with their rounds 5-6 picks to get a college senior who is closer to major league ready. Maybe they can land whoever this draft’s Niko Kavadas is. Kavadas was a senior at the University of Notre Dame. The first baseman had big-time power potential, slugging 22 home runs in his final season at college and having a slugging percentage above .750. Maybe the Pirates can find a similar hitter in the 2022 draft.

If the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t feel comfortable with their internal options, the first base market during the 2022-2023 off-season should have some solid names available, ones that shouldn’t break the bank. Jesus Aguilar has been a solid bat over the past handful of seasons. Trey Mancini could also be a potential target. As poor as his glove was, the Pirates could explore Josh Bell as he’ll hit the free-agent market next off-season.

Overall, the Pirates seem to have at least 3-5 prospects at every position throughout the minor leagues. You could probably name a dozen middle infield prospects as well as a dozen outfield prospects. That is, except for first base. The cabinet is very bare of young first basemen for the Pirates. Right now, they’re pretty much putting all their chips into Martin to succeed.

While I’m not saying the Pittsburgh Pirates have no merit to expect that Martin can take over regular duties at first base, potentially long term, they shouldn’t be relying on him and only him. They need to either acquire more first base prospects, whether that be through trade or the draft, the free-agent market, or if they possibly can without overpaying, acquiring an already established first baseman through trade. In any case, the Pirates need to find more options to fill the rosters than just Martin.