Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: 5 Breakout Seasons From 2021

No. 5 – catcher Abrahan Gutierrez

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Abrahan Guiterrez at the trade deadline this past season. He isn’t the last prospect acquired from the trade deadline that we’ll talk about, but the first. The Bucs sent left-handed relief prospect Braeden Ogle in return for Gutierrez who was in the middle of a breakout season with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Gutierrez was batting .288/.420/.429 with a .407 wOBA, and 139 wRC+ through his first 219 plate appearances of the season. The backstop had drawn 37 walks while only going down on strike three 34 times. Once traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Gutierrez improved. Gutierrez went on to hit .294/.448/.471 with a .438 wOBA, and 157 wRC+, albeit in a small sample size of 87 plate appearances. Still, he kept walking more than striking out, having a 16/13 BB/K ratio. Plus, his isolated slugging percentage increased from .141 pre-trade to .176 post-trade.

Gutierrez went from unranked to start the 2021 season to being the Pirates’ 54th best prospect. While that doesn’t seem very high ranked, the Pirates do have the second-best farm system in baseball by FanGraphs’ measurements. So while on paper, it may not be very high, he’s arguably a top 35 prospect in an average/below average system.

2022 will be the catcher’s age-22 season. Where he’ll start his season may be a bit up in the air. Endy Rodriguez, another catcher who had a phenomenal 2021, likely has the upper hand at a starting role at High-A. Guiterrez is Rule 5 eligible and the Pittsburgh Pirates may not protect him given his age and inexperience above A-Ball. Still, there’s a solid chance that the team can sneak him through the Rule 5 Draft and keep him around for the future.

No. 4 – right-handed pitcher Adrian Florencio

One of the more underrated performances of the year came from Adrian Florencio. The 23-year-old right-hander was an international signee in 2018. His first few innings in 2019 didn’t go so well. He gave up 25 earned runs and 7 home runs in less than 50 innings pitched. But after 2021, he should be considered a potential starting rotation option within the next year or so.

Florencio pitched to the tune of an outstanding 2.46 ERA, 3.25 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP through 95 innings pitched. The right-hander was striking out batters at a rate of nearly 30% (29.7%). Plus he had a great 7.6% walk rate. Florencio excelled at limiting home runs. He had a .47 HR/9. Though you wouldn’t have guessed that based on his batted ball numbers.

Florencio gave up line drives at a 25.8% rate and had a sub-40% ground ball rate. He did have an outstanding 31.6% infield fly ball rate, but you’d like to see some better batted ball numbers out of him. Still, he had a solid 3.72 xFIP, which is based on flyball rate.

The right-hander spent the entire season with Low-A Bradenton. His outstanding performance won him his league’s pitcher of the year award. Next year will be his age-23 season. While I wouldn’t rule out him starting the 2022 campaign at Double-A Altoona, I could see him starting at High-A Greensboro. Though he may get a quick promotion like Omar Cruz did given their similar profile (age, prospect status, etc.).

No. 3 – infielder Diego Castillo

Diego Castillo isn’t going to be the last prospect that came from the New York Yankees and was in the midst of a breakout season in 2021. The Bucs acquired the infielder, along with Hoy Park, in exchange for struggling reliever Clay Holmes.

Castillo looked like he was turning a corner with the Yankee Double-A affiliate. His first 249 plate appearances of the season saw him post a .277/.345/.504 batting line, .367 wOBA, and 129 wRC+. Plus he blasted 11 home runs. Then once he was traded to the Pirates, he continued to hit well with Altoona. He only stepped to the plate 121 times but batted .282/.342/.445 with a 114 wRC+. Eventually, the Pittsburgh Pirates gave Castillo his first taste of action at Triple-A where he boasted a fantastic 146 wRC+, albeit in only 70 trips to the plate.

Many probably didn’t expect to see Castillo breakout for as much power as he did. He blasted a total of 19 home runs while having 24 doubles, and a .209 isolated slugging percentage. For comparison, Castillo doubled his 2015-2019 home run total in 348 fewer games. He didn’t even have an isolated slugging percentage of .100. The big reason he saw such a dramatic rise in power was a dramatic rise in fly balls, having a fly all rate above 40% compared to below 30% in 2015-2019.

Though he started to become power-happy, that didn’t affect his strikeout or walk rate. Heck, it actually improved his walk rate. His 12.7% strikeout rate may be a single-season career-high but isn’t that far off from what he was doing previously. In any context, a sub-15% strikeout rate is fantastic. It’s even better once you consider he had a healthy 10% walk rate. A guy who avoids strikeouts like the plague draws some walks and does it all with a solid BA and a little pop is a combination you like to see.

Castillo can field second base, third base, and shortstop, so he’s quite versatile in the infield. The Pirates will surely protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. You don’t just let a guy who went from unranked to a borderline 45-FV prospect in a year go unprotected in the draft. He should be considered the next man up if Michael Chavis struggles at second base to start the season. With 2022 being his age-24 campaign, you have to imagine he gets an extended look in the majors sometime next season.

No. 2 – outfielder Matthew Fraizer

You can’t talk about big breakout seasons in the minor leagues without talking about Matthew Fraizer. The outfielder was drafted in the third round of the 2019 draft. Fraizer only had a .553 OPS in his first taste of big-league action, but his 2021 season would be a huge step forward.

Fraizer collected 499 total plate appearances between High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona. Between the two levels, he batted .306/.388/.552 with 23 long balls, a .402 wOBA, and 149 wRC+. Fraizer’s biggest breakout was in the power department. He had a very high home run total with a .218 isolated slugging percentage. He wasn’t an all-or-nothing batter either. He had a solid 21.6% strikeout rate while walking at a healthy 11.2% mark.

The outfielder is also fast. Speed was one of his strong suits when the Pirates drafted him. With a lot fewer ground balls, more balls put in the air, and overall put in play, it’s easy to see why he had a fantastic season.

Fraizer’s big breakout campaign potentially puts him on the map as a potential player that could take over an outfield spot next season. Though he’s mainly played center field so far in his young professional career, he has plenty of experience in both corner outfield spots. Next year will be his age-24 campaign. He has a good shot of starting the season at Triple-A Indianapolis and so long as he stays healthy and his performance doesn’t fall off a cliff, he could be an early-season call-up if either Anthony Alford or Ben Gamle struggle. With Travis Swaggerty also a potential early-season call-up, the Pittsburgh Pirates should have a formidable outfield during 2022 with some combination of Fraizer, Swaggerty, and Bryan Reynolds.

No. 1 – right-handed pitcher Roansy Contreras

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired right-handed starting pitcher Roansy Contreras from the New York Yankees throughout the 2020-2021 offseason. He was one of the four pieces going to Pittsburgh for Jameson Taillon. Contreras, who went into the season as a solid, albeit not very high ranking prospect, ended up as a top 50 prospect by FanGraphs’ measure.

Contreras did this because of his outstanding season down at Double-A Altoona. Contreras had a fantastic season, posting a 2.65 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP through 54.1 innings. Contreras was striking out batters at an insane 34.9% rate while only dealing out free passes just 6.1% of the time. Plus, he rarely gave up a home run. His HR/9 sat at just 0.83. Though it could have been even better with a fantastic 47.5% ground ball rate and line-drive rate of 12.5%.

Contreras was given the opportunity to pitch at Triple-A and even a few innings in the major leagues during the last week of the season. Between the two levels, he only pitched 6.2 innings but allowed just1 earned run, struck out 10, and walked just 2.

The big reason Contreras had such an effective breakout campaign was his improved fastball and breaking ball. Both are pitches with 60-grade potential based on velocity and spin rate. Plus he has a good changeup. He’s always been considered to have decent control as well.

There are a few reasons Contreras is #1. The first reason is his improved offerings. He now projects as a much higher end starting pitcher than before. Coming into 2021, Contreras wasn’t even considered one of the Pirates’s top 15 prospects by FanGraphs. However, now he ranks as the 49th best prospect by their measurement.

Honorable Mentions

These, in my opinion, were the best breakout seasons throughout the minor leagues based on what the player did in the past compared to this year, how they improved their prospect stock, and what it could mean for their future impact on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though I think some players deserve at least a mention.

Catcher Endy Rodriguez

Part of the Joe Musgrove trade, switch-hitting backstop Endy Rodriguez had a phenomenal season at Low-A Bradenton. His .410 wOBA and 140 wRC+ won him his league’s MVP. This was his first full season of playing time, but he did fantastic with the Mets’ short-season minor league teams, so that was the main reason he just missed out. He easily is the 6th player on this list.

Right-handed pitcher Michael Burrows

Burrows put up a quality 2.20 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP at High-A Greensboro. Plus he had a strikeout rate above 30% (34.2%) and an outstanding 0.55 HR/9. He did struggled some with walks (10.5%) and his underlying xFIP of 4.36 was not as pretty as his ERA. Though the main reason he missed out was he pitched just 49 innings.

Outfielder Lolo Sanchez

Sanchez had a big power breakout, blasting 17 home runs in 104 games. That’s 4 more than he hit during all of 2016-2019. Plus he had a career-best walk rate and kept strikeouts to a minimum. He’s also a good base runner, swiping 30 bags for the second time in a single season for the second time in his career.