Pittsburgh Pirates: Internal Starting Rotation Options for 2022
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to embark on what could be a topsy turvy offseason across baseball, what internal options do they have for their starting rotation next season?
One of the biggest questions that general manager Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates will have to answer this offseason is what will the starting rotation look like in 2022. This comes on the heels of a season in which the Pirate starting rotation was one of the worst in baseball.
Pirate starting pitchers ranked 28th in baseball in ERA (5.53), 27th in FIP (4.96), home runs allowed (463) and walk rate (8.9%). They also pitched the 4th fewest innings in baseball with 753.2 innings pitched.
While the team will likely look to add rotation help this offseason via free agency and the trade market, there, obviously, will still be internal options for the Pittsburgh Pirates and there starting rotation in 2022. What will be interesting to watch is how many of these potential internal options do the Pirates look to roll with on Opening Day.
With how poor the starting rotation performed last season the Pittsburgh Pirates will almost be forced to add starting pitching help to avoid making it seem they are already waving the white flag on the 2022 season. That said, the team is unlikely to spend large amounts of money in free agency, and there are young pitchers in the organization they will want to get an extended look at.
All of that said, let’s dive into potential Opening Day starting rotation options for 2022 among pitchers already in the Pirate organization.
Bryse Wilson and Miguel Yajure
The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Bryse Wilson from the Atlanta Braves just before the 4 PM ET trade deadline on July 31st. Miguel Yajure was acquired from the New York Yankees in the Jameson Taillon trade last offseason. Wilson is a former top-100 prospects and Yajure is currently a top-100 prospect according to FanGraphs.
Both Wilson and Yajure pitched for the Pirates last season, and both are just 23-years-old. Outside of being given rest to manage his workload Wilson was a mainstay in the Pirate starting rotation after being acquired. As for Yajure, his MLB season was limited to 4 outings (3 starts) due to a forearm issue. Without this injury, odds are, Yajure would have permanently joined the Pirate starting rotation at some point in June or July.
Without a doubt Wilson and Yajure are two young arms the Pittsburgh Pirates will want to get an extended look at in 2022. Despite their poor overall numbers in 2021 (5.35 ERA, 5.49 FIP for Wilson, 8.40 ERA, 8.50 FIP for Yajure), they both flashed plus stuff at times.
Additionally, Yajure’s numbers were heavily skewed due to allowing 7 earned runs on a pair of home runs in 2 innings pitched in his final outing of the season. His ERA would have been cut in half without this outing, but that’s small sample size life. As for Wilson, he posted a 4.35 ERA and 4.33 FIP in his first 6 starts with the Pirate before a poor start on September 12th skewed his overall numbers. Again, small sample size life.
Barring injury or a disastrous Grapefruit League season the odds would appear to be high that both Wilson and Yajure will crack the Opening Day starting rotation. Both will likely be given a very long leash, even if they struggle, as the Pirates look to see if they have a future rotation building block in either Wilson or Yajure.
Mitch Keller
To be quite honest the 2021 season may have already been a make or break season for Mitch Keller. If it was, then eh certainly broke his chances of still being viewed as a long-term building block for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Keller posted a 6.17 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 10.4% walk rate and he averaged just 4.3 innings in his 23 starts. For his career Keller now owns a 6.02 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 10.6% walk rate and just a 22.1% strikeout rate in 39 starts. In these 39 starts he’s pitched just 170.1 innings, which comes out to just 4.3 innings per start.
After struggling to start the 2021 season Keller was demoted to Triple-A Indianapolis. This, however, did not appear to help as Keller went on to continue to struggle upon his return to the Majors in August.
A one time top-50 prospect in all of baseball Keller has been nothing short of a disappointment thus far in his MLB career. While he may enter Spring Training with an opportunity to earn a spot in the Pirate starting rotation, he should not be guaranteed a spot.
If Keller struggles in the spring he should start the season in the rotation at Triple-A, or perhaps in the Pirate bullpen. There is a possibility that with a move to the bullpen Keller’s stuff could play up to help him overcome his control issues.
Dillon Peters
Lefty Dillon Peters came out of nowhere to put together 6 strong starts down the stretch. The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Peters from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for cash considerations on July 19th. After making 5 appearances at Triple-A, Peters joined the Pirate rotation and seized the opportunity.
Peters pitched 26.2 innings in his 6 starts. He walked 8.5% of batters faced, struck out 19.7%, allowed just 2 home runs, and posted a 3.71 ERA to go with a 3.66 FIP. Peters also posted a strong 48.7% ground ball rate. When you combine these results with the struggles of the Pirate starting rotation, Peters certainly made a strong case to have a spot in the 2022 rotation.
At 29-years-old Peters is unlikely to be any sort of long-term piece for the Pirates. However, he can certainly provide quality innings while the team waits for their pitching prospects to begin to reach the Majors. Also, being a lefty with multiple years of control, he could pitch his way into having some strong trade value.
Peters appears to be a safe bet to be on the Opening Day roster in some capacity. As of now, it would almost assuredly be as a member of the starting rotation. Regardless of who the Pirates add to their pitching staff this offseason, due to his performance last season Peters should have a spot on the staff.
Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl
Making their MLB debuts in 2016, Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl join Jacob Stallings as the longest tenured Pirates. With six seasons as members of the Pittsburgh Pirates under their belt, both Brault and Kuhl’s tenures in Pittsburgh could be ending soon.
Following a strong final four months of the 2019 season and a strong abbreviated 2020 season, Brault appeared to be turning the corner. He was then limited to just 7 starts, in which he posted a 5.86 ERA and a 4.62 FIP, in 2021 due to injury.
With Brault set to hit free agency following the 2022 season the Pirates could look to trade him this offseason. That could be difficult to do, however, as he has pitched just 70.1 innings the past two seasons due to COVID and injuries. If the Pirates do not move Brault it would not be a stunner to see him be non-tendered by the team, but if he is still a Pirate when Opening Day rolls around he will be in the starting rotation.
Prior to 2021 Kuhl had spent his entire career as a starting pitcher, this was despite many people long speculating that his best long-term home could be the bullpen. After returning from injury in August he pitched solely in relief. Overall, he struggled in 2021 posting a 4.82 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 12% walk rate and a 1.46 HR/9 in 80.1 innings pitched.
Kuhl is certainly a strong non-tender candidate this offseason. If the Pirates do keep Kuhl around he will likely be given an opportunity to earn a rotation spot in the spring, but, most likely, if he is on the Opening Day roster of the Pittsburgh Pirates it would be as a relief pitcher.
Wil Crowe, JT Brubaker, Roansy Contreras
Wil Crowe came to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Josh Bell trade and went on to lead the team in starts (25) this past season. While Crowe largely struggled posting a 5.48 ERA, 5.57 FIP, walking 11% of batters faced and allowing home runs at a concerning rate of 1.93 HR/9, he will still have an opportunity to crack the team’s Opening Day rotation.
Crowe’s past home long-term is still the bullpen, but he did something few other pitchers did in 2021 which is stay healthy and take the ball every five days for the Pirates. This will work in his favor for earning an Opening Day rotation spot. Also, depending on how the the rotation is addressed this offseason, the Pirates may simply need arms to fill out the rotation.
Early on in the season JT Brubaker appeared to be emerging as a potential rotation building block for the Pirates. But then in mid-May he started on a slide that just simply never ended, leading to him having a poor season.
Brubaker went on to post a 5.36 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 7.1% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate in 124.1 innings pitched across 24 starts. Like Crowe, Brubaker’s biggest issue was the home run ball as he allowed home runs at an alarming 2.03 HR/9 rate. Brubaker has better pure stuff than Crowe and has a better chance of being a long-term rotation piece. That said, it is certainly possible that his long-term home ends up the bullpen where his stuff could play up and make him a plus reliever. Where Brubaker begins the 2022 season will likely hinge on what pitching additions/subtractions we see from the Pirates this offseason. Brubaker could start the season in the Triple-A starting rotation, MLB starting rotation or MLB bullpen.
As much as Pirate fans, and likely the Pirates, would love to see Contreras in the team’s Opening Day starting rotation, odds of that are likely low. That is, unless the new CBA fixes the ridiculous service time rule. If it does not than Contreras will start the season at Triple-A so the Pirates can secure an extra year of control before he joins the rotation in May or June.