Pittsburgh Pirates: JT Brubaker Pitched Better Than His Results

Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed starting pitcher JT Brubaker had a solid season, despite what the surface numbers say how he did.

The Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 pitching staff wasn’t anything to brag about. Among starting pitchers, they were next to last in ERA, WHIP, had the 4th highest FIP, walk rate, the 7th highest HR/9. Their combined 3.9 fWAR was the third-lowest mark in baseball. 23 pitchers matched that on their own this past season.

But there is some hope on the horizon. The likes of Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure, Carmen Mlodzinski, Bryse Wilson, and Omar Cruz could be in starting rotation spots by the end of 2022. We may also see the likes of Austin Roberts, Tahnaj Thomas, and Ricky DeVito get their first taste of major league action late into the year. But one of the names that isn’t talked about all that often is right-hander JT Brubaker. Despite his lackluster surface numbers, everything under the hood shows that he was better than he actually was.

During the 2021 season Brubaker tossed 124.1 total innings, posting a poor 5.36 ERA and 5.16 FIP. His biggest struggle came in the long ball, which he surrendered at a 2.03-per-9 rate. That’s the 14th mark in a single season (min. 120 innings) since 2010. But there was a lot to suggest that Brubaker is a solid pitcher who ran into some poor luck.

One thing that works in his favor is his strikeout and walk rates. He had a 24.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. His K/BB ratio of 3.4 was well above the league average 2.7 mark. Brubaker also had a 4.00 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA, and 4.34 DRA. All three marks are about 5-7% above average (94 xFIP-, 93 DRA-).

Brubaker’s biggest problem, that being home runs, may have been partly due to bad luck. His opponent exit velocity (88.9 MPH) and hard-hit rate (38.7%) weren’t all that bad. His ground ball rate was right around average, and his fly ball rate was actually above average. But his HR/FB% was 22.4%, compared to the league average of 13.6% in 2021.

According to Baseball Savant, his batted ball profile is similar to that of Sean Manea’s, Frankie Montas, and Jack Flaherty in 2021. Among those three players, the highest HR/9 was Flaherty’s 1.38 mark. For reference, the league average in 2021 was 1.26. Despite being similar to Brubaker in terms of batted ball profile, the only one with a HR/FB% higher than 15% was Flaherty’s at 15.6%.

In my opinion, Brubaker is the most underrated pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster. The right-hander was much better than his surface numbers show. He also pitched very well in every level of the minor leagues and had a solid start to 2021. There’s a lot to suggest that he’s closer to a mid-rotation starting pitcher than a fringe arm. If he can get his HR/9 around average, I don’t see why he can’t be a solid 3.80-4.00 ERA kind of pitcher. The underlying numbers show that is 100% completely possible. I’d definitely keep an eye on him as a potential breakout pitcher for the 2022 season.