Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: High Ceiling of Rodolfo Nolasco

Rodolfo Nolasco has huge offensive potential, but can he become the Pittsburgh Pirates’ best outfield prospect?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton of noteworthy outfield prospects. You have the first-round draft picks in Travis Swaggerty and now Connor Scott. There are also talented outfield prospects acquired through trades such as Hudson Head and Canaan Smith-Njigba, other former high-end draft picks like Lonnie White Jr., Matt Fraizer, and Sammy Siani, and international signees including Lolo Sanchez, Shalin Polanco, and Sergio Campana.

Overall, there’s a lot of good players in the outfield for the Pirate future. But one that stands out more than most is Rodolfo Nolasco. Currently, Nolasco is a 20-year-old the Pittsburgh Pirates signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018. But can he rise to be the team’s best outfield prospect?

Last season Nolasco had spent his season with Pittsburgh’s Florida Complex League affiliate. He only had 164 plate appearances at the short-season league but batted .284/.409/.552 with a .436 wOBA, and 150 wRC+. Nolasco hit for a lot of power. He blasted 8 home runs, putting him on pace for nearly 30 in 600 plate appearances. He also had a .269 isolated slugging percentage.

Nolasco’s big power is influenced by two things. The first is his raw strength. At just 20-years-old, FanGraphs already has him with average raw power. In 2019, he had an 89 MPH exit velocity. For reference, the MLB average is around 88.5 MPH. He also had a 46% hard-hit rate. I think it’s safe to assume he didn’t start hitting the ball hard less frequently this year. But along with ripping the cover off the ball, he was hitting it in the air more. In 2019, he had a ground ball rate of 57.6%. That dropped to just 41.7% this year. Meanwhile, his fly ball rate went from 27.1% to 41.7%.

Nolasco also displayed strong patience at the plate. He walked 15.9% of the time. His walk rate was the 9th best among Pirates’ minor leaguers with at least 160 trips to the plate. Though among all 11 players with a 15% or higher walk rate in at least 160 PA’s, he led them all in wRC+. Now granted, he did strike out at a 26.2% rate. Not a great rate, but he also only struck out 11.6% of the time in 2019.

Nolasco is considered an average runner with an average glove, but an above-average arm. But as he grows and adds more power, he’s only projected to be a 40-grade runner. Still, if he can maintain his strong arm and be a solid defender in the grass, he’ll find a spot nonetheless.

According to FanGraphs, he has added a noticeable amount of bulk. His swing needs a bit of tweaking to fully tap into that strength, but it seems like he started to make those adjustments this year. A 30 home run pace and isolated slugging over .250 speak for themselves as results.

So can Nolasco be the Pirates’ best outfield prospect? Well, he doesn’t fit the mold many prospect evaluations like. He’s a corner outfielder. White Jr., another young prospect who is a good contender for the Pittsburgh Pirates next best outfield prospect, may potentially be more favored because of his athleticism.

Still, I think the best thing Nolasco can do is prove he can hit and produce as he has over the course of a full season. He has 96 career professional games and 389 trips to the plate in two seasons. Next year is his age-20 season so he’ll probably start the year out with A-Ball Bradenton. With a mean age of 20.3 years old, they had the youngest hitters in their division. The overall mean age of the Low-A Southeast West Division was 21.2 years old.

White Jr. is Nolasco’s biggest hurdle. After all, the high school outfielder was projected to go early in the second round, possibly even late first round, but fell because of his commitment to Penn State. White Jr has the speed fielding and athleticism advantage over Nolasco, but the ladder has the hitting and power advantage.

If and when Rodolfo Nolasco crushes Low-A pitching, I think he at least becomes the Pirates’ #1 hitting outfield prospect. His bat is the attraction, but he isn’t an awful defender. If he keeps hitting as he has so far in his short pro career, he has a very good chance of becoming a top 100 prospect.