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Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Rookie of the Year Contenders in 2022
The Pittsburgh Pirates have two prime Rookie Of The Year candidates between Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz. But who has the better chances of winning the award?
Throughout the history of the Pittsburgh Pirates they have just a single National League Rookie of the Year winner. That was Jason Bay in 2004. They’ve had multiple impressive rookie seasons, including last season with reliever David Bednar and in 2019 with Bryan Reynolds. But with the Pirates having a handful of prospects coming up next season, they’ll have plenty of Rookie Of The Year Candidates.
Today, I want to take a look at two prime candidates that have a serious case to compete for the award. These two are top 100 prospects, including one that had a breakout 2021 campaign. They both made their debut in 2021 and will be looking to get regular playing time next season. That’s right-hander Roansy Contreras and infielder Oneil Cruz.
Roansy Contreras
The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Roansy Contreras in the Jameson Taillon deal. While at the time he wasn’t a high-end prospect, the right-hander has improved his stock. Last year, he spent most of the season at Double-A Altoona. He pitched 54.1 innings posting a 2.65 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and .90 WHIP. Contreras posted career bests in strikeout rate (34.9%), walk rate (5.5%) while having a strong 0.83 HR/9.
Contreras only gave up 5 homers. However, he had a 47.5% ground ball rate and a line drive rate of just 12.5%. Contreras had a career-high 10.4% HR/FB ratio, so he could likely lower his HR/9 to around 0.5-0.7.
Contreras was eventually promoted to Triple-A where he tossed 3.2 innings giving up a single earned run, walk, and 6 strikeouts. He even ended the season in the major leagues where he tossed 3 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts and one walk. However, his ability to jump to the majors from a short time in the upper minors, as well as posting career-best numbers at Double-A aren’t the only reasons he has significantly increased his prospect stock.
Contreras was also throwing much harder. Coming into the year, he was only averaging 92-94 MPH with his four-seam fastball, topping out at 96 MPH. However, 96 MPH has been much closer to the average. He was touching around 96-98 MPH with about 2500 RPM. Based on his velocity and spin rate, his fastball is a 60-grade or better offering. He’s always had a plus breaking ball, as well as an above-average change-up. His command has been a strong suit, even before the increase in velo. His highest single-season walk rate was just 8.4% in 2018.
Next season Contreras is essentially guaranteed 20-25 starts. Even if service time is still a thing post-CBA negotiations, he’ll be part of the major league rotation by late April to early May. The right-hander is a potential long-term #2 starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He could easily be a National League Rookie of the Year candidate next season.
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz has been part of the Pirate farm system since the 2017 trade deadline. Originally an international signee by the Los Angeles Dodgers, he was traded to the Bucs in the deal that sent Tony Watson to LA. Since then, he has developed into a consensus top 100 prospect.
Cruz got things started off at Double-A with Contreras last year. Like Contreras, he did very well at Altoona, posting a .292/.346/.536 line, .377 wOBA, and 136 wRC+. He showed off a fair amount of power, blasting 12 long balls in 273 plate appearances. Plus he had a .244 isolated slugging percentage. Cruz had a solid 23.4% strikeout rate, but a 7.3% walk rate. Despite a tad low walk rate, his season was still great.
Cruz was then promoted to Triple-A late into September. He only appeared in 6 games and had 29 plate appearances, but you couldn’t have asked for a better performance in a small sample size. Cruz had 11 hits 5 of which were home runs. Another was a double. He only struck out 5 times and drew 8 walks. Now small sample size sure, but how can you not be impressed by a 370 wRC+?
This got Cruz promoted to the bigs where he went 3-for-9 with a home run. One of his hits, a single, came off the bat at 118.2 MPH. That was the 7th hardest-hit ball all year. Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Franchy Cordero, and Pete Alonso were the only other players to have a harder hit baseball come off their bat.
Cruz has a massive amount of raw power. He can leverage his large 6’7″, 210-pound frame for 80-grade raw power. Game power-wise, he’s still projected to be a 60-grade power hitter. Though based on his raw power, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he reached 70-80 game power. FanGraphs only projects his hit tool to be a 35-grade. Now that is poor, but that’s mainly because his walk rates and strikeout rates aren’t the best. His batting average has risen from .286 in 2018, to .298 in 2019, then to .311 between the minors and majors this past year. Even if he only is a .270-.280 hitter long term, that’s more than adequate given his power output.
Long-term position is still up in the air. He’s an average to below-average defender at shortstop. But his cannon of an arm and athleticism leaves the possibility open for the Pirates to move him to the outfield if need be.
2021 was the huge boost of confidence Oneil Cruz probably needed. After coming off an offseason full of turmoil where he was originally framed as a drunk driver that caused a three-fatality car accident, Cruz is now in a position to take over regular plate appearances early into next season.
If you want to read the timeline of events relating to Oneil Cruz’s incident, we put together a timeline of events here.
Verdict
It’s nice to have two young players that are prime National League Rookie of the Year candidates. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a whole boatload of prospects that will look to secure regular playing time next season. But between Contreras and Cruz, who has the better chance of winning the award.
Contreras comes with less risk than Cruz. He’s pitched well throughout every level of the minor leagues and his improved ability only helps him. He has a high ceiling, but Cruz has an even higher ceiling. He’s a potential .280/.350/.550 hitter who can blast upwards of 35 home runs a season. He could be a J.D. Martinez-type hitter who plays shortstop and right field.
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However, between the two, I think Cruz has the upper hand on National League Rookie of the Year. Now don’t get me wrong. I’d bet that Contreras would get some votes for the award as well. But I think Cruz reaches his power potential and becomes a long-term slugger in 2022.