Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting the 2022 Mid-Season Rotation

Carmen Mlodzinski

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Carmen Mlodzinski in the 2020 MLB Draft. Mlodzinski was a competitive balance pick and the team selected him #31 overall. The right-hander had a solid season at High-A Greensboro but ended the campaign at Triple-A Indianapolis. The new regime seems to be more willing and more aggressive in promoting their higher-end prospects. So seeing Mlodzinski skip Double-A completely is 100% plausible.

Last season Mlodzinski pitched 50.1 innings at Greensboro, posting a 3.93 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. Mlodzinski struck out nearly a third of all the batters he faced, posting a 30% strikeout rate on the dot. Plus he had a solid 9.3% walk rate. However, home runs were a bit of an issue for him. His surface numbers look a bit weak, but about 18% of his earned runs all came from one outing. Outside of a 4 ER, 1 inning game, 3.28 ERA. Mlodzinski had a 4.00 xFIP, mainly because of a solid 31.7% fly ball rate and 42.9% ground ball rate.

Mlodzinski has a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball has sinking action, but he can run it up into the mid-to-upper 90’s. His breaking ball is a slider that averages out around the low-80’s. Others see it as a cutter. Regardless, his breaking pitch is considered a second above-average offering. Finally, there’s his changeup which he has a good feel for with good sink.

With three above-average pitches, four if you want to count his slider/cutter as two offerings, Mlodzinski has the potential to be a long-term high-end arm for the Pittsburgh Pirates. They didn’t choose him in the first round for nothing. Mlodzinski could be a no. 2 type starter for the Pirates long-term.