Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting the 2022 Mid-Season Rotation

The current starting rotation might not look all that strong for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but things could look significantly different by mid-season next year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have many notable young pitchers throughout the system. Many will make their debuts in 2022. The current Pirates rotation may not look all that impressive. After all, an opening day rotation headlined by Bryse Wilson, Dillon Peters, and JT Brubaker as the team’s top 3 arms aren’t all that impressive. However, the rotation could have a makeover by mid-season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be promoting many different arms throughout the season, so that means that by the all-star break, the rotation that we know now should look a whole lot different. Today, I want to take a look at what the rotation could potentially look like when the team takes off for the All-Star Break.

Roansy Contreras

Roansy Contreras was one of the many prospects the Pittsburgh Pirates received in the Jameson Taillon deal. At the time, Contreras was a solid pitching prospect but was not considered a high-ranking prospect. Now, he’s a top 100 arm.

Contreras pitched 54.1 innings at Altoona. The right-hander had a strong 2.65 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP. All were single-season career bests. His 34.9% strikeout rate is another career-best, by a mile. He was not a huge strikeout pitcher before reaching the Pirates. His previous career-best was 24%. Because he wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher, he had to rely on good command. But that didn’t change with the improved strikeout rate. He still had a 5.5% walk rate, which, again, was a career-best.

The career-best numbers weren’t the only major improvement to the right-hander. Contreras’ four-seam fastball only averaged around 92-94 MPH with the Yankees. This year? 96-98 MPH. 96 MPH is what he previously topped out at. He also has always thrown the offering with a ton of spin. His other two offerings, a slider, and change-up are also two pitches that were projected to be above average, even before arriving at his new organization.

Contreras only pitched one game at Triple-A before arriving in the major leagues. He made his first start on September 29th against the Chicago Cubs. He went three scoreless with 4 strikeouts and a single walk. Even if Contreras starts 2021 at Triple-A, he’ll surely be in the rotation by early June at the absolute latest.

Miguel Yajure

Miguel Yajure was another top pitching prospect the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired in the Jameson Taillon trade. Yajure likely would have spent the second half of 2021 in the Pirate starting rotation but missed a good chunk of time because of injuries. Still, he has lots of potential and is one of the Pirates many long-term rotation candidates.

Last season Yajure posted solid numbers at Triple-A. In 43.2 innings, the right-hander had a 3.09 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. He had a 23% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate, but a so-so 1.24 HR/9, and his 15.4% HR/FB ratio is about 10-12% higher than what he usually puts up. Yajure did make his Pirates debut, but only pitched 15 innings. He had 2 solid outings to start his career with the Pirates, but a poor outing at the end of 2021.

Yajure has an impressive arsenal that consists of 6 offerings he threw at least 5% of the time last year. Among his pitches, his cutter is considered his best weapon. FanGraphs grades it as a 60-grade offering that sits around 87 MPH. His four-seam fastball is another above-average pitch. He has great command with it, which makes up for the 90-93 MPH velocity range. It’s another offering that FanGraphs sees as above average at a 55-projected.

His changeup is a third plus offering. It has similar velo to his cutter and is considered his best secondary pitch. Yajure’s curve has very good movement. It’s a 12-6 curve that has “serious bite and depth”, according to FanGraphs. At the very least, it’s an average curve. Then there’s his slider. Yajure’s slider is another offering that is graded out as average or better. He also has a sinker he pretty much only throws to right-handers. It’s his least used offering, but a sixth offering to his already deep arsenal.

Yajure tops out around 95-97 MPH but usually sits in the lower-90 MPH range. He struggled with velo late into last season, but a full off-season of rest after missing a good chunk of 2021 should help regain some of the zip. But what Yajure lacks in velocity he makes up for in command and control. Yajure’s walk rate has consistently sat around 5-6%. His injury last season could have played a role in his struggles with command and home runs.

The right-hander is one of the organization’s most underrated arms. He doesn’t have the velocity the likes of Contreras or Jared Jones has, nor the big overpowering breaking pitch like Quinn Priester has. But the volume he has in terms of offerings as well as the plus command make him a guy with the potential to be a high-end #3 starter, potentially low-end #2 starter if he fully reaches his potential.

Zach Thompson

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Zach Thompson in their most recent notable trade. They sent Jacob Stallings to the Miami Marlins, receiving back three players. Among those three, Thompson posted solid numbers in the major leagues.

Last year, Thompson worked out of the bullpen and rotation. Overall, he tossed 75 innings posting a quality 3.24 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP in his rookie season. Thompson’s strong suit was limiting home runs. He had a .72 HR/9 rate, though his 21% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate aren’t going to make any headlines.

Thompson’s 43.4% GB% and phenomenal 16.5% line drive rate play up because he was in the top 76th percentile of exit velocity and top 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate. Thompson only had a 4.58 SIERA, and 4.65 xFIP, but none of his expected stats on Baseball Savant were below average.

Thompson’s best offering his cutter. It’s considered one of the best cutters in the majors. Last season his -11 run value was tied with 2nd place American League Rookie off the Year finisher Luis Garcia’s, and Los Angeles Dodgers’ all-star closer Kenley Jansen’s cutters. His four-seamer was his only offering that was considered below average in terms of run value.

Thompson is a late bloomer. Next year will be his age-28 campaign. But there’s not much to suggest that he can’t be a quality starting rotation arm. He might not be an ace, but a guy who can put up a 3.80 ERA with 150 innings isn’t out of the question. That’s very good production out of your no. 4 starter.

Bryse Wilson

The fifth spot in the rotation could have gone to a multitude of other pitchers. However, I chose to go with Bryse Wilson for two reasons. One, he’s yet to be given a fair shot in the majors. Despite making his debut in 2018, he’s been given much less of a chance to prove himself than some of the arms that debuted in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Two, he’s a former consensus top 100 prospect. He was also one of the Atlanta Braves’ highest-ranking prospects, even before the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, and Ozzie Albies graduated prospect status.

Bryse Wilson was acquired by the Pirates at the 2021 trade deadline as one of the two players the Pirates’ got back for Richard Rodriguez. The former prospect only had 76.1 innings across 4 different seasons with the Braves. While he struggled in those 76.1 innings, there was no semblance of consistent playing time in the major leagues for the young right-hander.

Wilson is a command/control pitcher. He tosses five pitches including a four-seam fastball, sinker, change-up, curveball, and slider. He doesn’t have anything overpowering, but he has done well throughout the minor leagues while showing plus command.

Wilson might just be one of the most underrated 2022 breakout candidates. He was a top prospect in a loaded farm system and his major league numbers have been intertwined with 16 different options to the minor leagues. He’ll finally get a shot to prove himself next season.

Other Potential Arms

You could almost make a second rotation with the number of arms that the Pirates will have at their disposal. While the likes of Contreras, Mlodzinski, and Yajure are top prospects currently, Wilson was a former top 100 prospect, and the Pirates acquired Thompson, these arms still have the potential to make the rotation

Mitch Keller

Keller was once considered the premier arms in the minor leagues. He’s shown some talent, but consistency has been his biggest struggle. Last year, he had 9 outings where he pitched at least 5 innings and gave up 2 or fewer earned runs. He also had 5 outings where he gave up 5+ earned runs. Keller will start the 2022 season in the rotation and he’ll still only be in his age-26 season, but time is running out for the right-hander.

Dillon Peters

Dillon Peters ended up being an underrated acquisition by the Pirates. He pitched 26.2 innings posting a 3.71 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. 4 of the 11 earned runs he gave up came in the final outing of his season. While Peters will have an upper hand on a rotation spot to start 2022, he’s far from a guarantee.

Wil Crowe

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Wil Crowe as part of the Josh Bell trade. He tossed 116.2 innings posting a poor 5.48 ERA, 5.67 FIP, and 1.596 WHIP in 116.2 innings. Crowe did show some promise with a solid stretch in June and July and ending the season with a 3.20 ERA in his final 19.2 innings, but Crowe isn’t guaranteed a rotation spot to start 2022.

JT Brubaker

JT Brubaker had a solid first half of the season, but struggled down the line, mainly with home runs. All told, he tossed 124.1 innings posting a 5.36 ERA, 5.16 FIP, and 1.295 WHIP. Brubaker did have some promising underlying numbers such as a 4.04 SIERA, 4.00 xFIP, and an insanely high HR/FB ratio that should decrease if he keeps up similar batted ball rates. The right-hander will open 2022 as a starter but could move to the bullpen if he keeps struggling as a starting pitcher.

Max Kranick

Max Kranick had a phenomenal debut where he tossed 5 perfect innings vs the St. Louis Cardinals. However, the right-hander would go on to give up 27 more earned runs in 33.2 innings. He’ll still only be 24-years-old next year and is in the running for an opening day rotation spot. Plus he had some solid numbers at Triple-A.

Omar Cruz

Acquired as one of the piece of the Joe Musgrove trade, Omar Cruz posted solid results at High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona. He’ll likely start 2022 at Triple-A and be called up early into the season. Cruz could potentially be an early-season rotation candidate.