Pittsburgh Pirates: Previewing 2022 for Roansy Contreras

One of the best starting pitchers in the game is Roansy Contreras. He’s also major league ready. But how many starts could we see him make in 2022?

Last season one of the biggest breakout seasons in the Pittsburgh Pirates system belonged to right-handed pitching prospect Roansy Contreras. Contreras ended 2021 as the 49th best prospect on FanGraphs’ rankings. He started the year out at just a mid-tier pitching prospect but ended the year with an ace-like outlook. Next year, Contreras will get a good look in the major leagues, but how many starts can we expect to see him make?

Contreras started the year out at Double-A Altoona. He was injured for a few weeks during the season, but you couldn’t have asked for a better performance. In 54.1 innings, Contreras pitched to the tune of a 2.65 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP. Contreras’ 34.9% strikeout rate was nearly 15% higher than his 2019 mark of 21.1%. Plus he bumped down his walk rate from 6.7% to just 5.5%.

The only major stat that Contreras saw an increase in was HR/9, but a .83 HR/9 rate is still very good. Considering that his ground ball rate jumped from 40.1% to 47.5% and his HR/FB ratio never sat above 8% in a minor league season once in his career, you could suggest that his HR/9 should have gone down instead of up.

His performance wasn’t the only thing that took a massive step forward. Going into the 2021 season, Contreras fastball velocity was only about average, sitting in the 92-94 MPH range, and topping out at 96 MPH. However, 96 MPH was pretty much the norm for him. He was reaching into the upper-90’s and was still showing he had plenty of spin. His four-seamer’s average RPM sat at 2467. Based on velocity and spin, it’s a 60-70-grade offering. His slider also looked like a 60-grade offering at the major league level, and his changeup has always been considered to have above-average potential, even before reaching the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Contreras got his first taste of major league action last year. After just one start at Triple-A, the talented right-hander was promoted during the last week of the 2021 season. He fired 3 scoreless innings vs the Chicago Cubs, allowing 3 hits, but just a single walk and 4 strikeouts. His quick ascension to the major league level last year puts him on pace to be a major leaguer for most of next season.

So when could we expect to see him and how many starts could we see from him?

If service time is no longer an issue after CBA negotiations, then we’re looking at a guy who could start the year on the opening day starting rotation. It’d be very exciting to see the Pirates start the year with both Contreras and Miguel Yajure in the same rotation as both have the potential to be very long-term pieces of the pitching staff. If Contreras were to start the year on the starting rotation, he could be making 28+ starts.

However as things currently stand, service time would still be an obstacle. Contreras is a likely candidate to claim a rotation spot by late April to early May. If he makes his 2022 debut sometime between the last week of April and first week of May, he could still make up to 25 starts, but more realistically sitting around 20-23.

Roansy Contreras has the potential to be a National League Rookie of the Year candidate. According to FanGraphs, he’s the 7th best National League pitching prospect. However, among those 7, he’s one of just three to already log innings in the major leagues. The others are Miami Marlins’ Sixto Sanchez and Max Meyer. Contreras has ace potential and hopefully, we get to witness it in the majors next season for 20+ starts.