Pittsburgh Pirates: Previewing High-A Greensboro’s Potential Starting Rotation

Jared Jones

Greensboro’s rotation will hold many pitching prospects from the 2020 draft, starting with right-hander Jared Jones. The high school pick brings a lot of velocity and talent to the system, and he’s arguably one of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects and had a promising season at Bradenton in 2021.

Now granted, a 4.64 ERA, 11.3% walk rate, or 1.47 WHIP isn’t all that great. But these were the only poor numbers to his 2021 season. But the right-hander had a very solid 3.91 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, and .82 HR/9. He also had a 34.1% strikeout rate, the 6th best rate at Low-A in at least 50 innings.

So what was the issue with Jones? He had a .385 batting average on balls in play, despite having a solid 43.5% ground ball rate, 35.5% flyball rate, and 21% line-drive rate. His BAbip was the 7th highest in all of Low-A last season. Had it not been for this, he would have likely had an ERA somewhere between 3.50-2.3.75.

What makes Jones so talented is his pitching arsenal. He is a flamethrower with a great slider, and both offerings already sit at above-average before he turns 21years-old. The two pitches also project to be 60-grade offerings. He also throws a curveball that is another offering with plus potential and an average change-up. Command is his only question mark, but four average to elite offerings should make him one of the Pirates’ potential long-term starters.

Jones will still be very young, even for High-A. It will be his age-20 season, but the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t shied away from promoting their young players. Both Priester and top shortstop prospect Liover Peguero were in their age-20 seasons when they debuted. With the Pirates being more aggressive than previously when it came to moving prospects up the system and how Jones handled Low-A batters, age would be the only possible reason to keep him down.

Brennan Malone

Acquired as one of the two players in the Starling Marte trade, Brennan Malone is also a very highly talented arm in the system, and he and Jones both have two of the highest ceilings in the minors. But Malone has yet to pitch much since there was no 2020 minor league season and was injured for most of 2021.

But injuries haven’t limited his potential, at least not yet. Malone was a first-round pick from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2019 draft, and he was considered a top 25 draft prospect going into the draft and the second-best high school arm available. However, he went 31st overall because of his commitment to North Carolina and signed for over slot value, going for $2,202,200.

Malone has a four-pitch mix with all offerings projected to average or better. He can run his four-seamer into the mid-to-upper 90’s and has hit 99 MPH before. Right now, he also has averaged out around 2300 RPM. By the time he reaches the majors, he could be hitting around 95-97 MPH with 2350-2450 RPM, which FanGraphs projects to be 60-grade.

He throws both a slider and curveball, both of which are 55-grade offerings, as well as a change-up. He has a floor of a mid-rotation starting pitcher, but his ceiling is a high-end no. 2 starter. He was a first-round pick for a reason.

Malone is still young as this will be his age-21 season, and that’s a very reasonable age to start the year at High-A Greensboro. He could see some time at Low-A Bradenton, but starting him at Greensboro is very possible given his talent and age.

Luis Ortiz

Earlier, when I said that the Bradenton Marauders had two of the best Low-A starting pitchers, this was one of them. Luis Ortiz was that pitcher and had a great campaign in 2021. He might start the year at Double-A Altoona, but I think it’s more likely he gets things kicked off at High-A Greensboro.

Last year, Ortiz posted a 3.09 ERA, FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. The right-hander struck out 30.1% of the time with a 7.4% walk rate. Home runs were no problem for Ortiz, and he had a 49.1% ground ball rate and an HR/9 of just 0.52.

Ortiz was highly comparable, if not better, than teammate and Low-A Southeast Pitcher of the Year, Adrian Florencio. Ortiz had a better FIP, walk rate, strikeout rate, xFIP, and ground ball rate. The only thing that kept Ortiz from being better was a .342 batting average on balls in play. Florencio had a .280 BAbip.

Ortiz could quickly get an early-season promotion to Double-A Altoona, given his age and how well he did in 2021. He’ll be going into his age-23 season. So if he did get promoted to Double-A early or skip High-A entirely, a bevy of other young arms who performed solid at Low-A in 2021 could take his place.

Nick Garcia

In the third round of the 2020 MLB Draft the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Nick Garcia. Garcia, who came out of Chapman University, didn’t allow a single home run in 83 innings at the collegiate level. Garcia served as a reliever in 2018 and 2019 but opened the 2020 season as a starting pitcher.

Garica didn’t have a defined role with the Bradenton Marauders in 2021. He pitched in 21 total games with 13 games started. All told, he logged 74.2 innings with a 4.22 ERA, 4.93 FIP, and 1.353 WHIP. Although Garcia’s 24.8% strikeout rate and 1.08 HR/9 weren’t awful, he walked batters at a 10.4% rate.

Garcia could see his home run rate decrease as he moves forward if he keeps up the same batted ball rates he put up in 2021. Despite having an HR/9 over 1.0, he had a 50.5% ground ball rate and 32.8% fly ball rate. With just a 16.7% line drive rate, Garcia arguably could have been much better than he was with the Marauders.

Garcia has a four-pitch mix. He only throws in the mid-90’s but averages 2550 RPM. That makes it the highest spin fastball in the Pirate system and tied with the Jones, as mentioned earlier, and right-hander Michael Burrows. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. According to FanGraphs, he grew a feel for all of his offerings, and they all have the potential to reach an average or better level eventually.

As with any young arm considered a relatively notable prospect in a farm system, the Pittsburgh Pirates will keep Garcia as a starter until he can’t prove he can be one. Garcia is still considered a higher ceiling prospect within the Pirate organization. If he can improve one pitch to an above-average level, he might just figure it out as a starter.

Logan Hofmann

Two rounds after the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Garcia they selected right-hander Logan Hofmann. Hofmann, a product of Northwestern State University of Louisiana, ended his time at college with 28 innings without giving up an earned run with 38 strikeouts.

Hofmann was a strikeout machine at Low-A Bradenton, getting 29.9% of batters faced down on strike three while having a solid 9.6% walk rate. Hofmann struggled the most with home runs, which he surrendered at a 1.31-per-9 rate. Overall through 82.2 innings, he had a 3.59 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP.

However, evidence suggests that he could be better than his bottom line numbers indicate. Hofmann had a solid 44.3% ground ball rate and a phenomenal 16.7% line-drive rate. Hofmann had a 4.05 xFIP, .63 lower than his actual FIP.

Hofmann isn’t an overpowering starting pitcher, and he only averages around 92-94 MPH. But it’s an offering that comes in with a lot of spin. He also throws a 12-6 curveball that he gets many swings and misses. Hofmann added a slider and change-up to his repertoire in 2020 to make him a complete pitcher.

Hofmann’s long-term role is still up for debate. He pitched in 22 games with the Marauders with 13 being starts. As a reliever, he gave up just 3 total earned runs in 25.1 innings, and all three runs came in just one outing. His time at Greensboro could be a deciding factor in determining his long-term home. If he continues to struggle as a starter, the bullpen might be his home. But he could serve as a higher leverage arm who can handle multiple innings.