Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Chris Stratton Trades With Values

Baseball Trade Values is a popular site to create mock trades. Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed reliever Chris Stratton could be on the trading block once the lockout ends, so what are some trades the site likes?

One site that has gotten popular among the baseball community is Baseball Trade Values. The site assigns values to players, and fans can make mock trades between teams. Teams can send major leaguers, prospects, or cash. Once a user makes up a mock trade scenario, they can post it to the trade board and let the community voice their opinion by showing their approval or disapproval for each team’s return through a thumbs up/down voting system or leaving a comment.

Given how active the Pittsburgh Pirates have been in trades over the past two years, they’ve been thrown through mock trades on this site many, many times. Today, I want to take a look at a few interesting trades that Baseball Trade Values approves of. The Pirates could still make some trades post-lockout, so what are some swaps involving right-handed reliever Chris Stratton that they think are fair?

Before we look at the first proposal, let’s look at Chris Stratton himself. The Pirates acquired the former first-round pick when they purchased his contract from the Los Angeles Angels. Since being acquired, Stratton has pitched to the tune of a 3.69 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 1.33 WHIP in 156 innings of work. This has also come with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, and 1.10 HR/9.

Last year, he pitched in 79.1 innings while having a 3.63 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 1.3 WHIP. He struck out just over a quarter of batters faced (25.5%) while having a workable walk rate (9.8%) and home run rate (1.02). While none of Stratton’s performances may jump off the page, he’s pretty much average or better in everything he does. Plus, he has one of the highest spin fastballs and curveballs in baseball.

Stratton isn’t necessarily young as 2022 will be his age-31 season, and he only has two years of control remaining. The Pirates could potentially look to explore a trade involving the reliever given the circumstances and that he’d fit almost any bullpen. Stratton has a value of 0.7 on Baseball Trade Values.

As with anything revolving around trade value, it’s very subjective. One team might be more willing to give up more because they lack relief pitching depth, while a team with relief depth will be less willing to give up a prospect of note. Given that it doesn’t adjust for what a team might value or need, or what the Pittsburgh Pirates are actively looking for, or need to bolster, don’t take these trade values past face value.

Niko Kavadas was a player I highlighted as a potential prospect the Pirates should look into during the 2021 draft. Then Notre Dame hulking first baseman, Kavadas entered the draft with even more raw power than Henry Davis, who the Pirates selected 1/1.

Kavadas posted a phenomenal .286/.414/.587 line with 47 long balls in 697 plate appearances. Kavadas’ isolated slugging percentage peaked just over .300 at .301. He had just a 20.8% strikeout rate throughout his time in college while walking a ton. He drew over 100 bases on balls for a 15.6% walk rate. Overall, he had a .428 wOBA.

Kavadas ended up going in the 11th round to the Boston Red Sox, who signed him to an over-slot pick. He’s already played a few games professionally and stepped to the plate 58 total times. He did quite well with 11 hits (4 doubles, two home runs) while walking 15 times and striking out just 13 times.

So why would the Red Sox be interested in moving Kavadas? He’s only limited to first base and designated hitter. The 6’1″, 235-pound infielder did play some third base during college but is best suited for first long term. Those are two positions the Red Sox have on lockdown for the foreseeable future. Currently, Triston Casas is considered one of the best prospects in baseball. Bobby Dalbec had a great rookie season and caught fire in the second half of 2021. The Sox may also eventually move Rafael Devers to first or utilize him at DH more often, given his defensive struggles at the hot corner. Kavadas also isn’t the only high-power ceiling corner infield prospect the Sox drafted in 2021, with them also selected phenom Blaze Jordan.

Their pen was about middle-of-the-pack, ranking 13th in ERA (3.99), 10th in FIP (4.06), but 23rd in WHIP (1.39). They also are seeing Adam Ottavino hit free agency, and the right-hander had the most bullpen appearances and the second most innings pitched out of the pen for the Sox last year.

The Pirates would also be including left-handed reliever Blake Weiman. Weiman has pitched very solid throughout the minor leagues. Last year, an inflated 23.9% HR/FB rate significantly hurt him, despite overall solid underlying numbers.

That’s also not to say that Kavadas comes with no risk, and he has to hit in order to provide any value. You’re always taking on some risk with guys like him, given their lack of defensive versatility or lack of prominent defensive prowess at first base.

The Philadelphia Phillies have had their fair share of bullpen woes over the past few years. In 2020, their bullpen’s ERA of 7.06 was the 5th worst in baseball history since the end of World War II. Last season, their pen had a worse ERA, FIP, and identical fWAR to the Pirates’. So, needless to say, they might be a team willing to give up a pretty penny to acquire Stratton.

The first player in this trade heading back to the Pittsburgh Pirates would be youngster Jean Cabrera. The Venezuelan-born right-hander had a phenomenal showing in the Dominican Summer League. Through 52.2 innings of work, Cabrera had a 1.54 ERA, 2.29 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP. Cabrera struck out 31.1% of batters faced while only allowing them to reach 5.1% of the time via free pass. Plus, with a 49.2% ground ball rate, Cabrera was great at limiting home runs, and he gave up just a single long ball.

Cabrera’s fastball already sits around the 93-94 MPH range before he turns 21-years-old. It’s an offering that has elite potential. He also throws a slider in the low-80’s and a change-up for a third offering. According to FanGraphs, his two secondary offerings are “behind the developmental curve for a 20-year-old prospect”.

He’s very much of a body-projection type arm. He’s a lanky and thin 6’0″, 145 pounds. If he adds some muscle and reaches 155-160 LBS, he could get enough strength to get his four-seamer into the mid-90’s, closer to the 94-96 MPH range. He’s a very projectable type arm, and the Pirates would be taking on some risk.

But you can’t deny that his first taste of professional action wouldn’t catch your eye. While it was less than 100 innings at the lowest level of affiliated ball, you can’t help but be impressed by a sub-2.00 ERA, K/BB ratio over 6, and a WHIP below .900. He’s a gamble, but there’s a good pitcher within Cabrera if he reaches his potential.

The second player the Pittsburgh Pirates would be recieving is Andrew Baker. Baker is a 16th round pick and is one of those high-risk/high-reward relief prospects. He has an elite fastball that comes in around 96 MPH and tops out at 99 MPH. He also throws a wicked curveball. But like with most relief prospects, command is always an issue. He dished out 17 walks in only 10 innings duirng his small 2021 sample size.

If Baker can even get his command to a 40-45 level, he would be a pheonminal reliever. Again, he’s a high-risk/high-reward kind of prospect. If he gets his stuff under control, he’ll be dominant. If he can’t, he’ll just fall into the sea of other relief prospects who fit a similar bill.  While Baseball Trade Values puts his value over Cabrera, the latter would more likely be the headliner of the deal with Baker being a nice addition.

The Texas Rangers have been quite active this offseason. They signed top infield free agents, including Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. They also picked up Jon Gray to further solidify the starting rotation. But they might still be in the market for a reliever.

The Ranger bullpen was about middle of the road last season, posting a 4.13 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP. Overall, they had a +2.4 fWAR. So could the Rangers look into Stratton? It’s a possibility, and this trade could line up for the two teams.

Going back the Pittsburgh Pirates way would be right-handed pitcher Cody Bradford. A 6th round pick by the Rangers in 2019, Bradford had a nice debut season in 2021. In 96.1 innings between Double-A and High-A, Bradford had a 4.11 ERA, but almost everything else pointed to a great season. He had a 3.10 FIP and a 1.21 WHIP. The right-hander struck out nearly a third of batters faced with a 31.4% K-rate, but he wasn’t just a big strikeout pitcher with no command. He only walked 5.1% of opponents with a 0.93 HR/9 rate.

There is some slight concern with Bradford. He had so-so batted ball rates, including a sub-40% ground ball rate, line drive rate over 26%, and fly ball rate of 38.4%. Though he makes up for some eye-brow-raising batted ball rates with plus-plus command.

Bradford is a similar pitcher to Seminaris. MLB Pipeline describes the southpaw as a “crafty left-hander.” His fastball lacks velocity as he only averages around 88-91 MPH. Still, it plays up as an above-average offering because of his excellent command, late life in the zone, and deception. His best pitch is a change-up which he throws with some sink. His two breaking balls, a curveball and slider are two more solid offerings he can throw for strikes.

Bradford is one of those high-floor, low-ceiling type pitchers. The lefty has the floor of a higher-end #4 pitcher but a ceiling of a no. 3 pitcher. If he keeps up his ability to strike out his fair share of batters, he could raise both. Bradford has already pitched at Double-A, so he would get things started at Triple-A, giving the Pirates another notable pitching prospect in the upper minors.