Pittsburgh Pirates: Historical Struggles Developing First Basemen

Among all the positions on the diamond, first base has seeminly given the Pittsburgh Pirates the most trouble in finding a suitable regular at.

I’m going to ask a question, and I want you, the reader, to take your best guess. When was the last time the Pittsburgh Pirates had a first baseman who put up an fWAR above 3.0? Can’t think of it? I’ll give you some hints:

• It’s not Adam LaRoche, Garrett Jones, or even Josh Bell
• It wasn’t during the 2000’s

If you guessed correctly, then you guessed 1999 Kevin Young. Young was a very underrated player and had a very underrated 1999. Young batted .297/.387/.522 with a .391 wOBA, and 128 wRC+ in ‘99.

Young wasn’t your typical first baseman as he brought speed, power, and fielding to the position. He hit 26 home runs and had a .224 isolated slugging percentage. But he also swiped 22 bases and had +17 total zone runs. This led to a 5.3 fWAR, which ranked 25th in baseball and tied with some very notable names like Edgar Martinez and Sammy Sosa.

Now here’s another question; who was the last Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman to have an fWAR of at least 2.0 in consecutive seasons? For reference, 2.0 fWAR is usually considered average when valuing players. I’ll give you some more hints:

• It wasn’t any of LaRoche, Jones, Bell, or even Young
• It was in the 1980s.

The correct answer to this is Jason Thompson in 1982 and 1983. Between the two years, Thompson batted .272/.384/.460 with 49 home runs in 1285 plate appearances. Thompson was an on-base machine, walking at a 15.6% rate. Plus, he showed some pop blasting 31 home runs in 1982 and having a .188 ISO. He wasn’t all that great of a fielder, but only -2 TZ in each season isn’t all that bad. Thompson had a 7.7 fWAR (5.2 in 1982, 2.4 in 1983).

For some reason, the Pittsburgh Pirates have had an inability to develop a first baseman throughout most of their franchise’s history. I previously went over how the 2010s were a revolving door at first base. To put it simply, all of Jeff Clement, Garrett Jones, Lyle Overbay, Derrek Lee, Casey McGehee, Gaby Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Travis Ishikawa, Ike Davis, Pedro Alvarez, John Jaso, and Josh Bell could have at one point claimed they were the team’s starting first baseman.

Every year from 2010 to 2016, there was someone new starting at the position. But this clearly is a problem that has stemmed well before the 2010s. Among the first basemen the Pirates have drafted in the first ten rounds, only one has had a career fWAR above 5.0 (technically two if you want to count Pedro Alvarez), that being 2018 postseason hero Steve Pearce. While Pearce had a career that spanned 13 seasons, he only played more than 100 games once in those 13 campaigns and never reached 400 plate appearances in a season.

The last time the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted a first baseman in the first round was Will Craig. Craig never found his footing in the minor leagues. Craig showed a strong ability to make contact and get on base in his first two seasons. But then he seemed to sell out, all for power with his strikeout rate rising dramatically and walk rate taking a nosedive, but an uptick in home runs and isolated slugging percentage. Still, he never found consistency and signed the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes this year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates seemed to have found a potential solution in Josh Bell, but an inconsistent bat and extremely poor glove led to him being dealt to the Washington Nationals. Bell had a .211 isolated slugging percentage and 26 home runs in his rookie season, but only a .334 on-base percentage. In 2018, he had a .357 OBP but just 12 long balls and a .150 ISO. In 2019, he seemed to put it all together, but he was essentially a different batter every two months. In April-May, he was an MVP-caliber hitter (.444 wOBA, 178 wRC+). In June-July, he wasn’t even an above league average hitter (.315 wOBA, 93 wRC+). In August-September, he was a well above average, albeit not MVP-caliber hitter like he was early into 2019 (.364 wOBA, 126 wRC+).

Throughout his time in Pittsburgh, Bell had -26 DRS and a -9.7 UZR/150. Between his poor defense and up-and-down bat, Bell had an fWAR of just 3.4, which made him the 32nd most valuable first basemen from 2016 to 2020. Among players with at least 1500 plate appearances in these five seasons, he ranked 184 among 210 players in fWAR. Even outside of his short sample size 2016 season, he still ranked 182nd among 260 players with at least 1000 plate appearances from 2017-2020. Even after his solid season post-trade to Washington, he still has an fWAR below 5 in nearly 700 major league games. For reference, 22 position and eight pitchers had a higher fWAR in 2021 than Bell has had since 2016.

Currently, the Pittsburgh Pirates have a top first base prospect. Both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline consider him a top 10 prospect at his position. That’s Mason Martin. Martin spent most of his season at Double-A Altoona, where he hit .242/.318/.481 with 22 home runs in 471 plate appearances. Overall, he had a .342 wOBA and 113 wRC+. He eventually got promoted to Triple-A at the very end of the 2022 campaign, but there were two very major red flags to Martin’s season.

The first thing was that he struck out 34.3% of the time. The next thing was that he only walked in 7.8% of his plate appearances. The third thing is that both of those marks were career worsts for the first baseman. Martin has a lot of raw power, arguably the best in the system, and certainly up there with Oneil Cruz. But Martin has consistently had a 30%+ strikeout rate in the minors, and it has progressively gotten worse. Sure, some prospects strike out a whole lot in the minors and end up being productive in the majors. Just ask Joey Gallo. But I’d still be a bit concerned about Martin’s ability to make consistent contact enough to make his raw power a practical tool.

Right now, unless Martin proves otherwise or another player steps up, the Pirates’ best course of action to secure first base might end up being to outsource the position. Next year’s free-agent market doesn’t have any high-end names, but plenty of regulars like Trey Mancini, Jesus Aguilar, and former friend Josh Bell. The Pirates could choose to re-sign Yoshi Tsutsugo if he has a good 2022 campaign.

Now understandably, first basen isn’t considered a premium position. Almost every other position on the diamond takes priority over first base. But nonetheless, the Pirates, for some reason, have had a hard time developing a first baseman, much more than any other position in their history. There’s been a lack of consistency at the position for years now. The last two first basemen to start three consecutive Opening Days for the Pirates are Bell and LaRoche. The Pirates seem to have at least one good answer at every position for the future, but first base, one again, seems to be up in the air.