Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Pitchers With an Important Season Ahead

JT Brubaker

Right-handed pitcher JT Brubaker has spent the entirety of the previous two seasons on the active roster of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Brubaker has pitched in 35 games the previous two seasons, 33 of which have been starts, logging 171.2 innings.

While Brubaker has struggled to a 5.24 ERA and a 4.86 FIP in these 35 appearances there is a higher ceiling there for Brubaker. He’s posted a heathy 24% strikeout rate in his two MLB seasons, while walking just 7.4% of batters faced.

After getting off to a strong start last season Brubaker hit a wall in the summer. Starting on July 2nd, Brubaker went on a 10 start stretch to finish the season that saw his numbers balloon. In these 10 starts Brubaker pitched just 46.2 innings, allowing 15 home runs and walking 9.9% of batters faced. This led to him posting a 7.91 ERA and a 6.51 FIP in these 10 starts.

Brubaker has the tools to be a successful MLB starting pitcher. Last season his curveball spin rate was in the 88th percentile of baseball to go with a 30.9% whiff rate. His slider also flashed plus potential with a 42.5% whiff rate.

What burned Brubaker was allowing too much hard, quality contact. His 38.7% hard hit rate allowed, average opponent exit velocity of 88.9 MPH and 8.8% barrel rate were all higher than league average.

It would not be a surprise to see Brubaker settle into things in 2022 and become a solid no. 4 or no. 5 starting pitcher. If he can not begin to limit hard contact better then his future could be in the bullpen where Brubaker should have to tools needed to be a high-leverage relief pitcher. By the end of the 2022 season it should be clear if Brubaker’s future with the Pittsburgh Pirates is as a starting pitcher or as a relief pitcher.

Bryse Wilson

While he was rising through the minor league system of the Atlanta Braves right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson was a highly touted pitching prospect. He made his debut with the Braves in 2018 but was never given a true, extended look with the Braves.

This season Wilson will get that extended look with the Pirates. Barring something unforeseen Wilson should start the season in the Pirate starting rotation. Even if Wilson runs into struggles the Pirates are likely to give Wilson a look as a starting pitcher throughout most of the season.

Wilson has the ability to be a quality MLB starting pitcher. Last season he walked just 6.8% of batters faced putting him in the top third of MLB starters in walk rate. He was also able to get opposing batters to chase pitches ranking in the 83rd percentile of MLB pitchers in chase rate.

Like Brubaker, Wilson struggled to limit quality contact. His 9.9% barrel rate, 89.0 MPH average exit velocity, and 42.7% hard hit rate were all above league average. So, like Brubaker, Wilson may be better suited for the bullpen long-term in an effort to better limit hard contact and in turn home runs.

Wilson could have a future in the Pirate starting rotation. His future could be as a member of the Pirate bullpen. Wilson could also flame out and prove to not have a future with the Pittsburgh Pirates at all. When the dust settles on the 2022 season what Wilson’s future holds should be more clear.

Mitch Keller

What else is there to even say about Mitch Keller? The former top 50 prospect has struggled mightily since making his MLB debut with the Pirates in May 2019. In 2022 it will be now or never for Keller.

In 39 career starts Keller has posted a 6.02 ERA and a 4.30 FIP in 170.1 innings pitched. He’s struck out just 22.1% of batters faced while walking batters at a 10.6% clip. What is most discouraging is that Keller’s walk rate and strikeout rate were both worse in 2021 than they were in his debut season of 2019.

Despite his struggles last season the stuff was there. Keller’s fastball was in the 60th percentile of baseball in velocity and the 75th percentile in spin rate. His curveball also flashed good stuff  by being in the 72nd percentile of baseball in spin rate. However, control and placement of the pitches was an issue as opponents slugged .473 and .542 off the pitches.

This offseason Keller has been putting in the work necessary to get his career turned around. As he prepares to enter the most important season of his career, his fastball has been hitting triple digits this offseason.

Lack of talent or stuff has never been the issue for Keller. Controlling his pitches and putting it all together is what has plagued him. Can 2022 finally be the year Keller turns a corner? If he is going to have a future with the Pittsburgh Pirates then he will need it to be.