Pittsburgh Pirates: Banning Shift Will Have Opposite Impact for MLB

MLB has talked about banning the shift, which could lead to the opposite effect of what the sport needs and wants

One of the most significant new talking points across MLB related news is banning the shift. the banning of the shift has been a hot button topic among fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates and the rest of baseball.

The MLBPA is seemingly more willing to give up the shift in the latest negotiation talks. However, the banning of the shift might have the opposite effect than what MLB wants. Shifting typically has a more positive impact on baseball teams than negative, just look at the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates for example.

The whole reason for banning the shift is to increase the number of balls put into play that turn into hits. Over the past handful of years, the shift has become more and more prevalent throughout baseball. In 2021, 12 of the 30 total teams in the sport deployed a shift at least 2000 times. In comparison, in 2016, only one team deployed a shift 2000+ times.

However, despite the amount of shifts being used throughout the game, the average on balls put in play has stayed relatively the same over the past 20 years. In 2001, the league average batting average on balls in play was .296. In 2021, it was .292. That .004 difference is almost negligible as just two seasons ago in 2019; the league average BAbip was .298.

While this might turn more balls put in play into hits, as when a heavy-pull hitter does hit a grounder to their pull-side, it might get through more often, it also disincentives contact-oriented hitters. As popular baseball statistician Jeremy Frank points out, there is no reason for every hitter not to take a Joey Gallo-like approach.

Baseball is already becoming a boom-or-bust sport. Last year, there was an average of 8.9 strikeouts every nine innings, the second-most in any MLB season if you want to count the 9.07 mark posted in 2020. There was also an average of 1.27 home runs per 9 innings, the 4th most of all-time (again, if you want to count the 2020 season). Banning the shift dis-incentives adjusting at the plate, and incentives the all-or-nothing approach.

As Frank also points out, this only helps the Gallo-types. There have only been three players to have a sub-.230 batting average and a slugging percentage of at least .430 in 1500 plate appearances dating back to 2010. Those players include Gallo, Chris Davis, Adam Dunn, Chris Carter, and Mark Reynolds. Last year, the only players to have a .230 or lower average and .430 or higher slugging in at least 300 PAs was Gallo, Kyle Seager, Seth Brown, Mike Zunino, Miguel Sano, Mike Yastremzski, Ian Happ, and Adam Duvall. That’s less than 0.5% of all players who stepped to the plate 300 or more times in 2021.

Look, home runs are fun, especially moonshots followed by big bat flips or big displays of emotion or walk-offs. But for me personally, I like watching a Bryan Reynolds-type hitter over a Gallo-type hitter. Although Reynolds isn’t devoid of power, he hit 24 home runs and had a .220 isolated slugging percentage; he racked up 35 doubles and gets on base in more ways than just walking.

If MLB wants more Joey Gallo’s, all-or-nothing swingers who are essentially just three-true-outcomes batters, then banning the shift does just that. Baseball is the game of adjustments. Taking away the shift really makes that tagline un-true. I’m not saying baseball needs to revert to the old-school, single-slap hitters only. Baseball, like anything, needs to evolve, but banning the shift isn’t evolving the sport. It’s creating a solution to a non-existent problem.