Staff Predictions for 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates: Noah Wright

Breakout Pitcher of the Year – RHP JT Brubaker

Now by no means does this mean I don’t think Mitch Keller will breakout. The improvements he’s shown in Spring Training give me hope for a massive breakout campaign. I’m still very high on his talent. But Keller is an easy pick. Everyone has Keller as their breakout candidate. So instead of Keller, I’m going to go with JT Brubaker, my second-best breakout candidate.

Brubaker was once one of the better performing pitchers in the Pirate system. Last year was his first complete season in the major leagues, but he struggled in the 124.1 innings he pitched. Brubaker posted a 5.36 ERA and 5.16 FIP, with his biggest struggles coming from a 2.03 HR/9. But there’s plenty to suggest he could rebound next season.

The first thing is his batted ball rates. Brubaker had a 42.8% ground ball rate, which was about average. He was also about average in terms of hard-hit rate and exit velo, being in the 48th and 49th percentile, respectively. Despite giving up 28 home runs, he only had fly ball rate of just 35.2%. Brubaker’s unluckiness of his home runs is reflected in his 22.4% HR/FB ratio.

Next are the underlying numbers. Brubaker had a 4.00 xFIP, putting him with a 94 xFIP- (6% better than average) and 4.04 SIERA. Deserved run average, or DRA pinned him at 4.36, 7% better than average (93 DRA-).

His other surface-level peripherals suggested a better player as well. Brubaker had a healthy 24% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate, culminating in a 3.39 K/BB ratio. He was above average in terms of chase rate and whiff rate as well.

There’s a lot to like in Brubaker. He’s a pitcher who’s done well at every stop of the minor leagues, and his home run issue from 2021 looks like a fluke. He could be a solid 3.80 ERA pitcher if he can play up to his ability.