Staff Predictions for 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates: Noah Wright

Breakout Position Player of the Year – Third Baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes

Although I wanted to go with a different name here for the same reasons I wanted to go with JT Brubaker over Mitch Keller, I simply couldn’t find a non-rookie that seemed to have breakout written on them. So with that, we have Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Hayes only hit .257/.361/.373 with a .301 wOBA and 88 wRC+ through 396 plate appearances. Hayes was arguably the best defensive third baseman in baseball last year with +16 DRS, a 9.5 UZR/150, and ranking in the top 98th percentile of outs above average. Although he was an elite glove, the bat fell far from the expectations many had for Hayes.

But like with Brubaker, some of this could be chalked up to batted ball rates. Hayes still showed off his fair share of raw power, posting a 90.2 MPH exit velo (top 71st percentile) and a 45.8% hard-hit rate (top 75th percentile). Only 6 of the 56 total batters with an exit velocity of 90+ MPH and a hard-hit rate of 45%+ had a sub-100 wRC+ (min. 250 batted ball events). He had very similar numbers to Austin Riley, who had a 90.1 MPH exit velo and 45.6% hard-hit rate, and also went from disappointing offensive performance and 88 wRC+ the year prior just to put up a 135 wRC+ this year.

Hayes’ biggest downfall was his 56.7% ground ball rate, over 10% higher than anything he had put up in any single season in the minor leagues. If he can cut that down to around 40%, he’d easily put much of that raw power into play.

Hayes is easily a guy that you could see hit .280/.350/.480 with 18-20 home runs and a ton of doubles. If he ends up as a 110-125 wRC+ hitter, he’d easily be one of baseball’s most valuable third basemen. Given his raw power, I think he could reach that.