Pittsburgh Pirates: Making the Case to Draft a High School Pitcher

The Pittsburgh Pirates should at least entertain the idea of selecting a high school pitcher in the first round of this year’s draft.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have picked college-position players with their first-round pick in the last two drafts. In 2020 they used the seventh overall pick on Nick Gonzales and then the first overall pick in 2021 on Henry Davis. Then in the second round, they’ve taken high school pitchers Jared Jones and Anthony Solometo. However, should they consider a high school pitcher in the first round of the 2022 draft?

High School pitchers do not go so early in the draft that often. Dating back to 2010, only ten high school arms have been selected within the first five picks. Rarely do you see prospect boards include such a young arm as a top-five talent.

Why should the Pittsburgh Pirates consider a high school pick with the fourth overall selection this year? It would likely lead to an under-slot signing, which worked out exceptionally well last year. The Pirates went with Davis first overall, which helped them save just under $2 million for the rest of the draft. That money helped them sign over-slot picks like Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Braylon Bishop, and Lonnie White Jr.

The second reason is two high school arms should go within the first ten picks. The first is Dylan Lesko. A product of Burford High School in Georgia, the talented right-hander, already has a major league changeup. It’s the best changeup in this year’s draft, with FanGraphs already pinning it as a 60-grade pitch with 70-grade potential. He also has a plus-plus four-seam fastball that can run up into the mid-90s and tops out at 97 MPH. To go with his changeup and fastball, he has a decent curveball, which at the very least is average with above-average potential.

All three of his pitches have distinct velocity ranges as well. His four-seamer sits around 93-95 MPH, while his change-up comes in the low-80s, and his curveball averages out around the upper-70s. All three offerings have break as well. He also has decent command that should only get better as he develops. He also had the performance to back up his great stuff, only having a 0.35 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 60 innings throughout 2021.

The other high school arm to keep an eye on is Brandon Barreira. Barrera is coming out of American Heritage High School down in Florida. The southpaw brings four above-average offerings to the table. The first is his four-seam fastball, which sits in the low-90s, but has topped out at 96 MPH. Then there’s his slider and curveball. Both get a ton of swings and misses, and he can use them whenever he feels like in the count. His change-up is a fourth offering that he has consistently thrown for strikes.

All four of Barreria’s pitches project to be 55-grade offerings with room for further improvement beyond that. Although he isn’t an electric arm pumping high-90s heat, he has the best command in this year’s draft. He can paint the edges with his four-seamer and puts his change-up where he wants. A lefty with four good offerings is good. But a lefty with four good offerings and 60-grade command is special.

Assuming that both Termarr Johnson and Druw Jones are picked by two of the three teams ahead of the Pirates, the Bucs should still have the opportunity to select one of Elijah Green, Jacob Berry, Brooks Lee, or Jace Jung. The question now partly becomes if the Pirates should pick one of these players over either Lesko or Barrera.

Each of these players has their own set of risks or downsides. Berry and Jung will likely have to move to first base long-term. Lee is expected to be a third baseman over a shortstop. Although Green has a phenomenal glove and 40/40 potential, there are still questions about his strikeouts. Green has made massive strides to improve this, but if these improvements prove to be legitimate rather than a product of a small sample size, then he may end up going off the board before the Pirates are on the clock.

That’s not to say that either Lesko or Barreria do not come with risk, though. Young pitchers, especially high school arms, are inherently risky. But they do come with more upside. Not only are you getting more potential upside, but you are also going under slot with the fourth selection. The Pirates have a competitive balance pick, pick number 34. They could use that pick on an over-slot guy with the money they save by picking either Lesko or Barrera.

Unless either Jones or Johnson is available when the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the clock, I think they should seriously consider a high school pitcher. Adding another highly talented arm to the system is always welcomed, and going under slot could help them secure some over slot selections later in the draft.