Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Elijah Green vs Druw Jones

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The 2022 draft has two very talented high school outfielders in Druw Jones and Elijah Green. But who should the Pittsburgh Pirates select if they’re available?

This year’s draft is filled with some of the best high school talent fans have seen in years. Dating back to 2011, when MLB Pipeline first started ranking prospects, their top three draft prospects have never been three high schoolers until this year.

Two of those three players we’ll be looking at today. That’s Elijah Green and Druw Jones. They’re ranked as MLB Pipeline’s first and third-best players in the draft. Although FanGraphs isn’t as bullish on the duo as Pipeline, they still are quite high on the two. They have Jones at two and Green at seven.

With the potential of the two being available when the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the clock, who should the Pirates consider? Could the Pirates pass up on Jones to take the risk that comes with Green, or does Jones have too much talent to pass up?

Elijah Green

Green is arguably the best power hitter in this year’s draft, which will make him enticing to the Pittsburgh Pirates and all of baseball. According to FanGraphs, his raw power is already sitting at a 70-grade. By the time he’s developed, he’ll easily reach an 80-grade. Not only is he extremely powerful, but he’s extremely fast. He’s a 70-grade runner, making him a guy who could conceivably be a 40/40 member in the future.

That speed gives him extremely good range in the outfield. He’s a great defender in center field and has a strong arm to boot. He easily has the tools to remain in center field long-term. Okay, Green is a potential 40/40 guy and future Gold Glove winner. What’s the catch?

He strikes out a ton, or at least he did. In 2021, he had more swings and misses than balls put in play. That led to massive questions going into 2022 if he’d ever make enough contact to make that 80-grade power work. But things are looking up for Green.

So far this season, he’s cut his strikeout rate from over a third to under 20%, at 17.8%. His last 32+ plate appearances have resulted in just two strikeouts. He’s also walking a ton and has an OPS over 1.500. Heck, he has a slugging percentage over 1.000. Small sample size caveats aside, but you can’t help but be impressed by his massive change in approach.

There’s a reason many evaluators highly tout Green. The absolute mix of raw athleticism and power has the makings of a star player. He arguably has the highest ceiling in the draft but some of the most risk. But he is reducing the risk this season.

Apr 19, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Baseballs and a bat lay on the field at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports /

Druw Jones

Druw Jones has some big shoes to fill. He’s the son of former Atlanta Braves’ all-time great Andruw Jones, who’s arguably the best defensive center fielder, has the 6th most home runs of any centerfielder, and who deservedly belongs in the Hall Of Fame. But based on his talent level, Drew Jones could do what his father did.

Jones doesn’t have the awe-inspiring power potential Green has, but he still has the chance to be a 30 home run hitter. FanGraphs projects him to reach 60-grade raw power, with MLB Pipeline projecting 60-power as well. He also has great speed and more than enough to remain in centerfield.

If you thought Green was a good defender, Jones is even a step up from that. He’s the best defender in this year’s draft, having a 70-fielding grade by MLB Pipeline, 60 by FanGraphs, and a 60-grade arm by both prospect evaluation sites. If Green is a 40/40 batter who could consistently compete for a Gold Glove, Jones is a 30/30 batter who could consistently compete for a Platinum Glove.

The downside? He’s very predictable to where he hits the ball. He often goes to right-center enough to where an outfield shift could limit his ability. But if that’s the only issue at 18-years-old, Jones could have a lot in store.

Mar 18, 2022; Bradenton, Florida, USA; a general view of the stadium prior to the start of a game featuring the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates during spring training at LECOM Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports /

Verdict

This one is extremely tough. In this year’s draft, you have two five-tool center fielders as the top five players. There’s almost no wrong answer here for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but there are some factors that help the decision.

There’s less risk when it comes to Jones. He wasn’t a 30%+ strikeout batter in 2021. But if Green’s reduced K’s are the real deal, I think you almost have to go with him. Green is a guy who will hit .270 with a few 40/40 seasons and phenomenal defense in center. Jones is a .280 hitter who will have a few 30/30 seasons and top-of-the-line defense in center.

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Green has a higher ceiling. He comes with more questions than Jones, but he’s remedying them this year with his improved strikeout rates. But there’s still more risk with Green than Jones. Jones is rated higher than Green by almost all accounts for a reason. The decrease in strikeouts makes it a whole lot closer, but I still think Jones has the slightest of edges here. But if he can keep improving his strikeout rate, I do believe Green could be a better pick than Jones.

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