Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: High School Pick vs College Pick

The Pittsburgh Pirates are heading into the 2022 draft with the fourth overall selection, but should they use that pick on a college or high school player?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the fourth overall selection in the 2022 MLB draft. They have a selection among the first ten picks for the third draft in a row. In the last two years, they’ve gone with a college bat with their first-round selection. In 2020, they picked infielder Nick Gonzales, and last year, they picked Henry Davis.

In both instances, they’ve gone with a high school pitcher in their second round with Jared Jones In 2020 and Anthony Solometo in 2021. But in this year’s draft, the Pirates could select a high schooler with the fourth overall pick. But that’s not to say that there aren’t any good college players to consider.

It might end up being a tough choice between a high school player or college player at number four. So what are their options, and the pros and cons of going with one of the high school or college options potentially available to them when they’re on the clock?

College

There are two college bats I want to focus on here. The first is corner infielder/outfielder Jacob Berry. Berry, who transferred from Arizona to LSU, has continued to demolish baseballs. In 183 plate appearances, Berry is batting .370/.459/.669 with 13 home runs, 19 walks, and only 15 K’s. He also has seven doubles to go with his home runs.

This isn’t far off from the production he had with Arizona in 2021. During last year’s season, Berry hit .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs in 297 plate appearances. He struck out 19.5% of the time in 2021, which is a far cry from the 8.2% rate he has this year. Overall, he’s improved his plate discipline from 2021 to 2022.

Berry is second to just Green in terms of power potential but arguably has the higher offensive ceiling given he has far fewer questions when it comes to strikeouts. The issue with Berry is that he has no set position. He played third base and designated hitter in 2021 but has split his time between third base and right field in 2022. But he’s only a 40-grade runner, limiting his range in the outfield, and his glove at the hot corner isn’t anything to write home about. His final position is likely first base, which could make him a potential under-slot pick.

A more slot value pick might end up being Brooks Lee. The infielder is currently batting o.384/.492/.658 at Cal Poly State. He has a .488 wOBA this year. His batting line nor his wOBA might not even be the most impressive part of his season so far. He has 33 walks and just 12 K’s in 181 plate appearances. For reference, that’s an 18.2% walk rate and a 6.6% strikeout rate. He’s walked nearly three times more often than he’s struck out. Throughout his college career, he has had 45 doubles, 17 home runs, 45 walks, and just 43 strikeouts.

He is a switch hitter whose hit tool is one of the best in the draft. He also has plus power potential and is a solid defender at shortstop. But his range is fringy, which leads many evaluators to see him moving to the hot corner long-term. Lee has a plus arm, which would translate to third base.

Then there’s Jace Jung, another guy who is projected to go within the first five picks. Jung’s 2022 season has been nothing short of incredible. He’s batting .371/.522/.715 with 11 dingers and 17 doubles in just 203 plate appearances. That is correct; he has an OBP of .522 with Texas Tech. Jung has walked 46 times to oppose just 25 strikeouts, leading to a 22.7% walk rate and 12.3% strikeout rate.

The issue is Jung’s glovework at second base leaves much to be desired. According to FanGraphs, he has a 40-grade range and a weak arm. That could lead him to move to first base in the future. Regardless of where he ends up, he’s a guy who has the potential to hit .300 with 30 bombs in the near future.

Jung and Lee would likely end up as closer to slot-value picks. Meanwhile, Berry would likely come in as an under-slot selection. The Pittsburgh Pirates went with the best college position player available in the last two drafts, but do they do it again in 2022?

Verdict

This year’s draft is very high school top-heavy. The two best-ranked prospects are high schoolers. The best pitchers are high schoolers. But there are plenty of college players who should go in the first ten selections.

What they decide to do will depend on a few factors. The first thing is if they want to go under slot or something closer to slot value. If they go under slot, they’d likely pick Berry, based on Ben Cherington’s last two first-round selections and how often high school pitchers go in the first five picks. If they decide to go with something closer to slot value, they’d likely pick Green, given he’s still seen as a top 5 draft prospect.

Obviously, you can’t rule out either Johnson or Jones available to the Pittsburgh Pirates when they are up to pick. We’ve seen consensus top two guys like Marcelo Mayer and Austin Martin fall past the third selection. It would be malpractice for Cherington not to select either if he has the opportunity. In the event the Pirates do choose either Jones or Johnson, they’d likely be over slock picks given that they’re interchangeably the best players right now.

So if the likeliest options are Berry, the best college hitter, or Green, the most powerful high schooler, who would they go with? If both are available at the fourth slot, the Pirates should ultimately go with Green. Green brings the high-end athleticism you love to see with young players. He also has an extremely high offensive ceiling. There aren’t many players that you could see being potential 40/40 club members in the future.

You also have to consider that even though they’ve taken the best college position player available at the time the last two drafts, they were picked for slightly more premium positions than guys like Berry, Lee, and Jung. Gonzales was drafted as a shortstop and has played second base so far. Davis is a catcher, and while he’s not the best when it comes to the leather, he’s shown improvement and has a rocket arm. Jung and Berry are likely first basemen long-term. Lee has a chance of sticking at the premium position of shortstop but likely will have to shift to the hot corner.

They should also go with a high schooler because it helps provide a potential long-term building block. The Pittsburgh Pirates have already added plenty of guys who we should see between now and 2025, but adding a guy we could use from there onward would be greatly beneficial. Plus, they could always add a college pitcher or hitter with their competitive balance pick or in the second round.