Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: High School Pick vs College Pick

College

There are two college bats I want to focus on here. The first is corner infielder/outfielder Jacob Berry. Berry, who transferred from Arizona to LSU, has continued to demolish baseballs. In 183 plate appearances, Berry is batting .370/.459/.669 with 13 home runs, 19 walks, and only 15 K’s. He also has seven doubles to go with his home runs.

This isn’t far off from the production he had with Arizona in 2021. During last year’s season, Berry hit .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs in 297 plate appearances. He struck out 19.5% of the time in 2021, which is a far cry from the 8.2% rate he has this year. Overall, he’s improved his plate discipline from 2021 to 2022.

Berry is second to just Green in terms of power potential but arguably has the higher offensive ceiling given he has far fewer questions when it comes to strikeouts. The issue with Berry is that he has no set position. He played third base and designated hitter in 2021 but has split his time between third base and right field in 2022. But he’s only a 40-grade runner, limiting his range in the outfield, and his glove at the hot corner isn’t anything to write home about. His final position is likely first base, which could make him a potential under-slot pick.

A more slot value pick might end up being Brooks Lee. The infielder is currently batting o.384/.492/.658 at Cal Poly State. He has a .488 wOBA this year. His batting line nor his wOBA might not even be the most impressive part of his season so far. He has 33 walks and just 12 K’s in 181 plate appearances. For reference, that’s an 18.2% walk rate and a 6.6% strikeout rate. He’s walked nearly three times more often than he’s struck out. Throughout his college career, he has had 45 doubles, 17 home runs, 45 walks, and just 43 strikeouts.

He is a switch hitter whose hit tool is one of the best in the draft. He also has plus power potential and is a solid defender at shortstop. But his range is fringy, which leads many evaluators to see him moving to the hot corner long-term. Lee has a plus arm, which would translate to third base.

Then there’s Jace Jung, another guy who is projected to go within the first five picks. Jung’s 2022 season has been nothing short of incredible. He’s batting .371/.522/.715 with 11 dingers and 17 doubles in just 203 plate appearances. That is correct; he has an OBP of .522 with Texas Tech. Jung has walked 46 times to oppose just 25 strikeouts, leading to a 22.7% walk rate and 12.3% strikeout rate.

The issue is Jung’s glovework at second base leaves much to be desired. According to FanGraphs, he has a 40-grade range and a weak arm. That could lead him to move to first base in the future. Regardless of where he ends up, he’s a guy who has the potential to hit .300 with 30 bombs in the near future.

Jung and Lee would likely end up as closer to slot-value picks. Meanwhile, Berry would likely come in as an under-slot selection. The Pittsburgh Pirates went with the best college position player available in the last two drafts, but do they do it again in 2022?