Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: High School Pick vs College Pick

The Pittsburgh Pirates are heading into the 2022 draft with the fourth overall selection, but should they use that pick on a college or high school player?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the fourth overall selection in the 2022 MLB draft. They have a selection among the first ten picks for the third draft in a row. In the last two years, they’ve gone with a college bat with their first-round selection. In 2020, they picked infielder Nick Gonzales, and last year, they picked Henry Davis.

In both instances, they’ve gone with a high school pitcher in their second round with Jared Jones In 2020 and Anthony Solometo in 2021. But in this year’s draft, the Pirates could select a high schooler with the fourth overall pick. But that’s not to say that there aren’t any good college players to consider.

It might end up being a tough choice between a high school player or college player at number four. So what are their options, and the pros and cons of going with one of the high school or college options potentially available to them when they’re on the clock?

High School

It would almost be a no-brainer to pick Druw Jones or Termarr Johnson at no. 4. They’re essentially the 1A and 1B in this year’s draft. But past that, there’s another big name to keep an eye on. That’s outfielder Elijah Green.

Green has the best power potential in this year’s draft. FanGraphs gave him a 60-projected grade for his game power ability, but upwards of 80-grade raw power. MLB Pipeline also pins his power at a 60. Not only does he have the best power, but he’s also the best base runner, with a 70-grade speed by both MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs.

Not only is he extremely powerful and fast, but he is a guy who could consistently be a Gold Glove finalist in center field. He’s a great defender with a powerful arm. Plus, he’ll easily have the range to remain in center field long term with his speed.

The downside is that he has a poor hit tool. He struck out a ton in 2021, leaving many evaluators questioning if he’d be able to make enough contact to make that outstanding raw power a usable tool. But he has made strides to cut down on the strikeouts this year. Through his first18 games of the season, he has struck out just 17.8% of the time.

The Pittsburgh Pirates could also go with a high school pitcher as an under-slot selection at four. Brandon Barreira has the best command in the draft and four above-average offerings. He’s ranked as FanGraphs’ tenth best draft prospect. Dylan Lesko has the best change-up in this year’s draft, as well as a plus-plus mid-90s fastball and plus curveball. He comes in as MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best draft prospect.

Going with a high school pitcher so early is rare, but it does happen. Last year, the Detroit Tigers went with Jackson Jobe third overall so they could select Ty Madden in the second round. The Pittsburgh Pirates could go with a similar strategy this year. Going under slot did work well with the Pirates last year as well. Selecting Davis 1/1 helped them to sign Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White Jr., and Braylon Bishop.

College

There are two college bats I want to focus on here. The first is corner infielder/outfielder Jacob Berry. Berry, who transferred from Arizona to LSU, has continued to demolish baseballs. In 183 plate appearances, Berry is batting .370/.459/.669 with 13 home runs, 19 walks, and only 15 K’s. He also has seven doubles to go with his home runs.

This isn’t far off from the production he had with Arizona in 2021. During last year’s season, Berry hit .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs in 297 plate appearances. He struck out 19.5% of the time in 2021, which is a far cry from the 8.2% rate he has this year. Overall, he’s improved his plate discipline from 2021 to 2022.

Berry is second to just Green in terms of power potential but arguably has the higher offensive ceiling given he has far fewer questions when it comes to strikeouts. The issue with Berry is that he has no set position. He played third base and designated hitter in 2021 but has split his time between third base and right field in 2022. But he’s only a 40-grade runner, limiting his range in the outfield, and his glove at the hot corner isn’t anything to write home about. His final position is likely first base, which could make him a potential under-slot pick.

A more slot value pick might end up being Brooks Lee. The infielder is currently batting o.384/.492/.658 at Cal Poly State. He has a .488 wOBA this year. His batting line nor his wOBA might not even be the most impressive part of his season so far. He has 33 walks and just 12 K’s in 181 plate appearances. For reference, that’s an 18.2% walk rate and a 6.6% strikeout rate. He’s walked nearly three times more often than he’s struck out. Throughout his college career, he has had 45 doubles, 17 home runs, 45 walks, and just 43 strikeouts.

He is a switch hitter whose hit tool is one of the best in the draft. He also has plus power potential and is a solid defender at shortstop. But his range is fringy, which leads many evaluators to see him moving to the hot corner long-term. Lee has a plus arm, which would translate to third base.

Then there’s Jace Jung, another guy who is projected to go within the first five picks. Jung’s 2022 season has been nothing short of incredible. He’s batting .371/.522/.715 with 11 dingers and 17 doubles in just 203 plate appearances. That is correct; he has an OBP of .522 with Texas Tech. Jung has walked 46 times to oppose just 25 strikeouts, leading to a 22.7% walk rate and 12.3% strikeout rate.

The issue is Jung’s glovework at second base leaves much to be desired. According to FanGraphs, he has a 40-grade range and a weak arm. That could lead him to move to first base in the future. Regardless of where he ends up, he’s a guy who has the potential to hit .300 with 30 bombs in the near future.

Jung and Lee would likely end up as closer to slot-value picks. Meanwhile, Berry would likely come in as an under-slot selection. The Pittsburgh Pirates went with the best college position player available in the last two drafts, but do they do it again in 2022?