Pittsburgh Pirates: José Quintana Could Be an Extension Candidate

Left-hander José Quintana has been a nice addition for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but is extending him worth more than trading him?

The Pittsburgh Pirates signed lefty starting pitcher José Quintana to a low-risk one-year deal. Quintana had been coming off two struggling seasons in 2020 and 2021. The veteran had pitched just 73 innings incurring his fair share of injuries. When he did pitch, he struggled, posting a 6.16 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.67 WHIP.

The Pirates were hoping to find something more akin to his days in Chicago, and so far, he’s been a tremendous low-cost pick-up. In 30 innings of work, Q has a 2.70 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. The simplest way to put the way Quintana has pitched is that he just gets outs. He only has a 20% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. The only Baseball Savant stats he’s above the 50th percentile mark are average opponent exit velocity (86.9 MP, top 81st percentile) and chase rate (28%, top 52nd percentile). Those poor underlying numbers lead to some mediocre measurements in the predictive ERA department. Currently, he has a 4.14 xFIP, 4.33 SIERA, and 5.04 DRA.

But you can’t argue that he hasn’t been effective. He’s retired 72% of batters faced, which is just above the league average 71.4% rate. But that will lead to a lot of trade talk more than anything right now.

Although the Pirates haven’t looked like a competitor, they’re off to a respectable 14-19 start. They have more wins than the Texas Rangers, who made huge splashes in the free-agent market, more wins than the Detroit Tigers, who added Javy Baez, Austin Meadows, and Eduardo Rodriguez to a team that won 77 games last season, and the Boston Red Sox, who won 92 games and didn’t lose any significant pieces. It’s still very early into the season, but things could be a whole lot worse. The improvement they showed this year is just the first step to becoming a competitive ballclub. By the end of 2023, we’re talking about a team that might compete for a place at the top of the division and will at least be a Wild Card team.

But does that mean the Pittsburgh Pirates should consider a short-term extension with Jose Quintana? Having a veteran rotation anchor could be a very nice thing to have in 2023 and 2024. Now that’s not to say the Pirates lack young pitching talent. Roansy Contreras will likely be in a rotation spot within the next week. Eventually, Miguel Yajure will be recalled and hopefully perform better. Talented prospects like Carmen Mlodzinski, Jared Jones, Kyle Nicolas, J.C. Flowers, Mike Burrows, and Luis Ortiz are guys we could see at least make their debuts in 2023. Some might even see the majors this year.

Not to mention some of the other names that have appeared this year. Dillon Peters has been great this year and has been unscored upon in nine of his ten total outings. JT Brubaker has a 3.91 ERA through his last five starts and has improved in every appearance this season. That’s a decent group right there, but having Quintana be a veteran presence among those options would be nice to have.

The question becomes, is extending Quintana more valuable than trading him? A package for Quintana would probably look similar to what the Pittsburgh Pirates got for left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson last season.

The Bucs received catcher Carter Bins and right-handed pitcher Joaquin Tejada for Anderson. Tejada was the bigger get in this trade. He’s still young at 18-years-old but is a high-ceiling arm that Baseball America pointed out as a pre-season sleeper prospect. Though Bins does come with some upside himself. He’s a solid defender with average or better power potential—sort of a Robinson Chirinos outlook with better defense.

The Pittsburgh Pirates might be able to squeeze a little more out of Quintana if he keeps pitching the way he has, maybe getting a higher-ceiling near-MLB ready player than Bins, but in general, that’s the kind of package you’d be looking at. But would that be worth more than another year or two of Quintana?

Chances are, Quintana isn’t a sub-3,00 ERA pitcher. He has never posted an ERA below 3.00, even during his time with the White Sox. But a guy who could put up a 3.70-4.00 ERA over the course of 160+ innings of work? That isn’t out of the question. He consistently overperforms his underlying numbers. During his 2013-2016 prime, Quintana had a 3.35 ERA, but a 3.70 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA. It might not be ace-like, but he gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a durable and solid rotation arm to help support youngsters like Contreras, Priester, Mlodzinski, and a half-dozen others.

Unless a team is willing to give a little more than what Quintana is worth, then I’d seriously consider extending him. He might not be super flashy, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of other potential starters, but he gets the job done, which is very valuable in today’s game. Although it’s doubtful they do extend him, and I wouldn’t say the chances are zero.