Pittsburgh Pirates: Way Too Early Mock Draft

The MLB draft is still over a month away, but let’s take a look who the Pittsburgh Pirates could select with their first five picks of the draft.

The Pittsburgh Pirates once again have an early-round draft selection. This year, they have the 4th overall pick. Many sites have already done their mock draft, and I want to join in on the fun. Today, I want to make my way too early mock draft for the Pirates’ first five picks.

There have been plenty of mock drafts already done for the first round, and I want to take a crack at what I think the Pirates will do this year with their first few picks. The team has used their draft picks wisely over the last few seasons and is getting some good prospects from the draft. There should be no shortage of talent from this year’s draft.

With that being stated, let’s get into the Pittsburgh Pirates first pick and the 4th overall selection.

No. 4 overall – Jacob Berry

The draft is loaded with a ton of high school talent on top, but I think the Pittsburgh Pirates will take slugger Jacob Berry with the fourth overall pick. Berry is one of the best hitters in this draft and arguably the best college position player. Berry might not have a defined position, limiting his value, but he absolutely makes up for it with his bat.

Berry has batted .378/.462/.672 with a .484 wOBA this year with Louisiana State University. He already has 15 home runs in just 212 plate appearances, putting him on pace for about 45 across an entire season. Berry has also drawn more walks than strikeouts. He has 21 base-on-balls to just 18 strikeouts, leading to a 9.9% walk rate and phenomenal 8.5% strikeout rate. Although his walk rate slightly decreased from 11.1% last year, he cut his strikeout rate down by over 10%.

Between this year with Louisiana and 2021 with Arizona, Berry has 32 home runs in 509 plate appearances and a 1.123 OPS. His isolated slugging percentage comes in well over .300 at .312. To go with his home runs, he also has 27 two-baggers. With his pace in college, he’d have 40 homers and 34 doubles. His hitting talent is reflected in the 60+ grades that MLB Pipeline gives him for his hit and power tools.

The only downside is that he doesn’t have a defined position. Berry came into college as a third baseman but has mainly worked in right field this year. He spent all but nine games as a designated hitter in 2021. FanGraphs describes his defensive ability as rigid. Chances are, he’ll see time at first base when he reaches the pros.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Ben Cherington have gone with a college bat each of the last two seasons with Nick Gonzales and Henry Davis. It might only be a two-draft sample size, but they passed up some pretty good high school talent the previous year, with Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar ranking as two of the best draft prospects last season. The only high schooler I see the Pirates taking is Druw Jones, and that’s a big ‘if’ considering he’s a consensus no. 1 or no. 2 pick.

No. 43 overall – Parker Messick

Fewer players bring the fire and emotion that Parker Messick brings to the mound. Messick might not bring the heat as many college arms do, but he makes up for it with a wide variety of pitches, all of which he can command very well. Not to mention his arm slot adds a ton of deception. Plus, he’s a left-hander, which is always a plus. Messick will likely be available when the Pirates are on the clock unless a team decides to go well under slot in the late first round.

The Florida State left-hander has pitched exceptionally well this year. In 77.1 innings of work, Messick has a 2.56 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s only allowed 4% of batters faced to reach via free pass and has struck batters out at a rate just under 45% (43%, to be exact). He has a solid albeit unimpressive 0.93 HR/9, but that’ll do with his other outstanding numbers. He strikes out over ten batters for every walk, on average.

The stocky 6’0, 225-pound Messick throws a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball tops out around 95-96 MPH but usually sits around the low-90s. He throws a soft curveball but added a slider this year. Between the two breaking offerings, his slider is the better of the two. Then there’s his change-up, a low-80s pitch he uses to get a whole lot of weak contact.

Messick is the 49th ranked draft prospect per MLB Pipeline and 43rd per FanGraphs. It would be reasonable to expect him to be on the Pirates’ radar when they’re on the clock. The Pirates could use a good college arm, and Messick provides just that.

No. 83 overall – Colby Thomas

With the third-round pick, I have the Pittsburgh Pirates selecting outfielder Colby Thomas. Thomas has made some improvements this year to his skillset to up his draft stock. The Mercer outfielder should be available when the Bucs are on the clock, and given Thomas’ mix of athleticism and power, he could be an excellent use of the third-round pick.

Thomas has put up a .325/.451/.734 line with a .492 wOBA. Currently, he has a higher OPS and wOBA than my projected first-round pick, Berry. Thomas hits for his fair share of power. The outfielder has 17 home runs in only 213 trips to the plate. Although Thomas has always been a high-walk/high-OBP kind of hitter, he’s never done it with this few strikeouts. His 15% strikeout rate is nearly 9% lower than his 2021 mark.

Thomas is considered an above-average power hitter, runner, fielder, and thrower, receiving 55-grades for each on MLB Pipeline. Thomas has swiped 11 bases in 11 attempts, so he knows when he can steal a base. Although he’s made strides to improve his contact-hitting ability, there are still some minor questions. His swing can get a bit too lofty, leading to him getting flyball-happy.

Still, that’s a fairly minor concern. There’s the potential of a 25 home run outfielder who provides above-average defense and a .260 AVG./.350 OBP on the regular within Thomas. The 21-year-old would be a reasonable selection at no. 83.

No. 110 overall – Carson Palmquist

I see the Pirates taking Carson Palmquist in the third round of the draft. The University of Miami southpaw is one of the more interesting arms in the draft. He was Miami’s closer in 2021 where he had a 2.22 ERA, sub-.700 WHIP, and 9.38 K:BB ratio. This year, however, he has moved into their starting rotation.

Palmquist has a 2.95 ERA and 1.188 WHIP through 64 innings of work. He’s still getting a ton of strikeouts with a 34.2% K-rate but has seen his walk rate move in the wrong direction, from 4.8% to 7.4%. Home runs plagued Palmquist last season, and they’ve gotten worse this year. He holds a 1.55 HR/9 compared to 1.21 last season.

Palmquist has a fastball that he can crank up to 96 MPH. Though he tops out around 93 MPH when he comes out of the rotation. His upper-70s slider is an elite-level offering that has late break. Though he has added a change-up this year, experts are still unsure if it will become a usable offering. He lacks solid command of it, and his fastball/slider combo would work great as a reliever.

What makes Palmquist so interesting is his funky delivery. He has drawn Chris Sale comparisons for his low arm slot. Chances are he ends up in the bullpen long term, which limits his value. But he’s an early-round selection who the Bucs could consider. Like with Messick, it gives the Pirates another left-handed college arm, something they could use.