Pittsburgh Pirates: Breaking Down the Struggles of Bryan Reynolds

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds has yet to find his groove this season. What has contributed to his struggles?

Bryan Reynolds isn’t off to a great start. Entering play on Tuesday, he’s hitting .220/.310/.398, leading to a .313 w0BA+, and 101 wRC+. Although he’s been roughly league average, it’s a big letdown after having a .912 OPS, .385 wOBA, and 142 wRC+ the previous season. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder was supposed to be a vital part of the offense, and if he hit well, the Pirates would like have another win or two, potentially even finding themselves over .500.

So, what’s going on with him this year?

Well, there has been some bad luck involved with Reynolds. He has just a .254 batting average on balls in play. League average is usually around .300, and Reynolds has a career .335 mark. Reynolds’ rate of batted balls falling for hits is low. .254 is unlucky in any sense, and that should improve as the season goes on. Reynolds usually has a higher than average BAbip, but there is an explanation for why it’s so low right now.

This year, he has a 48.6% ground ball rate, which is nearly 10% worse than what he did in 2021. His 21% line drive rate is well below his 2021 mark of 25.6%. Not only is Reynolds hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives, but he’s also making a lot more soft contact.

Reynolds has an 87.6 MPH exit velocity and 37.7% hard-hit rate. In both 2019 and 2021, Reynolds had an exit velocity of around 89.5 MPH and a hard-hit rate of approximately 41%. In 2020 and 2022, Reynolds has an exit velo closer to 87.5 MPH and a hard-hit rate hovering around 38%.

Even with his lack of line drives, his line drives have fallen for a hit much fewer than they did in 2021. Last year, his BAbip on line drives was .723. Currently, Reynolds’ line drives have fallen for a hit at a .655 rate. The league average BAbip on liners is .683. Even his ground balls have been unlucky. Reynolds’ grounders have a .149 BAbip, compared to last year’s .259 mark and the 2022 league average of .231.

Reynolds is also swinging and missing a whole lot more. His whiff rate has jumped from just 23.9% to 28.7%. His chase rate has significantly increased from 24.7% to 31%. Reynolds has been pitched a lot differently this year. Last year, 51% of pitches were either down in the zone, down and away, or down and inside. They pitched Reynolds up in the zone, up and in, or up and away just 28% of the time. Pitchers this year have put the ball down in the zone, down and away, or down and inside to Reynolds 43% of the time and up in the zone, up and in, or up and away 41% of the time.

But there is hope he can improve and turn things around. Under the hood, Reynolds has an expected batting line of .255/.340/.423 with a .331 xwOBA. Now, sure, that’s nothing close to 2021 peak Reynolds, but a .763 OPS is a whole lot better than a .708 OPS. It’s the difference between a ~120 wRC+ and a ~100 wRC+. He’s still drawing his fair share of walks too. His 11% walk rate is still above his career average of 10.2% and only slightly below his 2021 mark of 11.6%.

Reynolds also has never been a guy who has heavily relied on hard-hit balls to get hits. He’s consistently been around average in terms of hard-hit rate and exit velocity. Even in 2019, he was only in the 57th percentile of exit velo and 65th percentile of hard-hit rate, the highest he’s ever ranked in those stats. Not necessarily the raw power threat like some of baseball’s top outfielders like Aaron Judge or Ronald Acuna.

Reynolds’ biggest issue is that he isn’t getting the ball in the air as often as he should. He needs to adjust to the way pitchers have thrown to him, but he’s talented enough to make those adjustments. He should improve as the year goes on, and he runs into better batted ball luck as well.