Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Termarr Johnson or Brooks Lee

Termarr Johnson

Termarr Johnson is a shortstop out of Atlanta, Georgia. The middle infielder has a commitment to Arizona State but will likely forgo that commitment to enter pro ball. Johnson is one of the younger players in this year’s draft. He’s still only 17-years-old but has just as much upside as many of the other top draft prospects.

Johnson’s hit tool is elite. MLB Pipeline views it as a 70-grade weapon. Some scouts have compared his plate discipline to Wade Boggs and the bat-to-ball skill of Vlad Guerrero Sr. But not only does he have the chance to be a consistent .300 hitter with a .400+ OBP, but he also has the power to crank out 25+ home runs a season. Johnson’s power is a plus-plus tool. Plate discipline is always nice to see in young kids, but it’s even better when you pair it with good power.

Johnson is athletic, but not athletic enough for shortstop. He’s a solid runner but lacks the range and arm for shortstop. He still projects as an above-average defensive second baseman, though. However, a significant development will be how he handles himself in the wood bat league he is participating in this summer. If he can do well in that, at 17-years-old, he may end up being an over-slot selection by the Bucs if he falls to them.

He’s a bat-first prospect, but not like the way of most firstbase prospects. He still has the athleticism to play up the middle. Although he might end up at second base long term, whichever team that picks him will likely try him at shortstop for as long as they can. Worst case scenario is that he has to move over to the keystone, where he is still a good defender. After all, nearly all second basemen in the Major Leagues were drafted or signed as shortstops.

Brooks Lee

Brooks Lee is coming out of Cal Poly. The infielder has torn up pitching in the Big West conference since his college debut in 2020. 2022 has been no different, and he’ll likely be selected in the first five picks, whether or not that is the Pirates.

Lee has been nothing short of phenomenal this year. In 286 plate appearances, Lee is slashing .357/.462/.664. He has nearly double the amount of walks to strikeouts. Lee has drawn 46 base-on-balls while striking out just 28 times. That leads to a 16.1% walk rate and 9.8% strikeout rate. He also has shown off above-average power. Lee has 15 home runs and 25 doubles. He is currently on pace for 34 home runs and 56 doubles in a full season’s worth of plate appearances.

Between his phenomenal plate discipline and outstanding power, Lee has put up a .492 wOBA this season. With those kinds of hitting stats, you’d think that a college shortstop would probably go in the first three picks rather than the first five picks. However, the chances are that Lee sticks at shortstop long term are not very likely.

Lee definitely has the arm to play the left side of the infield. However, like with Johnson, his range isn’t great. Lee will likely have to shift over to third base or, more likely, if the Pirates were to draft him, an outfield corner. Lee is a fine runner, so an RF/LF role long-term might be in his future.

Lee’s ability to hit for contact and get on base, as well as hit for power, make him one of the draft’s best players. Shortstop might not be his long-term home, but he’s still athletic enough to play anywhere else on the diamond that isn’t catcher. Many have the Pittsburgh Pirates selecting Lee, which makes him a potential player for the Pirates.

My Verdict

Between the two, I think Johnson is the better player. Johnson has a way better hit tool and decent power. Lee does have the edge in power, but it’s very slight. Johnson has the higher ceiling, but Lee is the safer bet. There are pros and cons in multiple facets.

The Pirates have gone with the college bat the last two seasons, and it would be nice to see them change it up. Johnson has a ton of talent and, in my opinion, is a top-three player in this year’s draft. The risk in drafting a 17-year-old is worth the potential reward.

Johnson would likely be an over slot draft pick, meaning they would have to go under slot later on (cough, cough Ivan Melendez, please). It would be worth the efforts of the Pittsburgh Pirates to get a high school pick and mix things up after focusing on college players in the first round for the last two drafts.