Pittsburgh Pirates: Three LHPs to Watch in the Draft

LHP Quinn Mathews

Quinn Mathews is a southpaw coming out of Stanford University. Mathews just finished up his best college season yet, being utilized in multiple different roles and excelling. He started nine games, locked down nine saves, and pitched a total of 99.1 innings through 27 total appearances.

Between these 99.1 innings, Mathews had a 3.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Mathews was proficient at preventing the long ball, giving up just four throughout the season. He was also well above average at striking batters out, having a 26.3% strikeout rate. Although Mathews was very good at two of the three-true-outcomes, he struggled with preventing walks. He had an 11.6% walk rate, which isn’t great to see; his K-rate, although above average, wasn’t elite.

So what reason is there to look into Mathews? The 187th overall ranked draft prospect by MLB Pipeline, Mathews’s four-seam fastball only averages out in the low-90s. But he’s the kind of lefty with deception and decent off-speed stuff. His best pitch is his circle-change, which has “two-plane shape,” according to Pipeline. His slider is another decent offering, and he’ll also toss a low-to-mid-70s curveball. His arm slot can also throw off some batters, which is another plus and helps his stuff play up a tad. All four of his offerings have unique speeds, which allows him to throw off timing.

Mathews is a lanky 6’4, 192-pounds. Lefties with a good change-up will always be looked at a little more favorably, even if they don’t have overpowering stuff or high-end command. The Pirates might be able to convince him to sign slightly under slot. Although he’ll likely start out his pro career as a starter, his future is likely a bullpen role.

LHP Pete Hansen

Pete Hansen hails from the University of Texas. The Longhorns have multiple draft prospects, including the Hispanic Titanic, Ivan Melendez, and others such as Douglas Hodo, Trey Faltine, and Tanner Witt. Left-hander Pete Hansen is another guy who will likely go within the first few rounds of this year’s draft.

Hansen’s 2022 numbers might not be too impressive, especially when you compare them to his 2021 numbers. He had a 3.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 107.2 innings this year, compared to a 1.88 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 91.2 innings last season. But there were a handful of improvements he made regardless.

Hansen struck out 27.7% of batters faced, which was an increase of over 5% from last year’s 22.3% mark. Not only did he significantly improve his ability to strike out batters, but he was dotting up the strike zone as well. He allowed just 19 batters to reach via free pass, leading to a 4.4% walk rate. His K:BB ratio of 6.32 was nearly double last year’s 3.48. The downside is that he let up home runs at a 1.3-per-9 rate.

Hansen is the prototypical strong-command/low-velo pitcher. His fastball only averaged out around 88-90 MPH. Though he’s shown more velocity in the past. In 2020, he worked closer to 92 MPH and topped out at 94. But his overall command comes in at a 60-grade. You watch video of him, and he’s hitting his spot a decent bit. His curveball and slider are plus offerings. Between the two, his upper-70s/low-80s slider is the better pitch, though his low-to-mid-70s curveball is a quality offering. Plus, he uses a change-up which he utilizes against right-handers most of the time.

Hansen has gotten away with a high-80s/low-90s four-seamer in what is a top-three NCAA conference, if not the best NCAA conference, is impressive. He’s been able to do it because of his exceptional command and great breaking balls. Ranked as the 125th best prospect per MLB Pipeline, the Pittsburgh Pirates could take him with the 110th overall selection. It gets them a good college arm early in the draft.

LHP Trey Dombrowski

If Hansen has elite command, then Trey Dombrowski has the best command in the draft. Dombrowski is coming out of Monmouth University. That might not be the first school that comes to mind when it comes to college baseball, but that doesn’t take away from Dombrowski’s ability.

Dombrowski pitched 95 innings this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and .99 WHIP. Unlike Hansen, Dombrowski wasn’t prone to the long ball, having a 0.95 HR/9 rate. The lefty had an 8.57 K:BB ratio because of his extreme ability to limit walks and strikeout batters. He’s the only guy we’ll talk about today who had a strikeout rate above 30%, clocking in at 31.3%. However, he allowed fewer walks on average than Hansen, having a 3.6% walk rate.

The thing is, none of Dombrowski’s offerings are stand-out. He stands at a strong 6’5, 235, but only averages out around 88-92 MPH. His curveball and slider are above average, and he also throws a quality change-up. All of his offerings have 50-55 grade potential, but what makes them all play up is his 70-grade control. He knows exactly where the pitch is going when it comes out of his hand.

Ranked as the 110th draft prospect per MLB Pipeline, he could definitely be on the Pirates’ radar for the fourth round. His stuff is better than Hansen or Mathews, and his command is arguably the best in the entire draft. Even if the Pirates go a different route, I’d like to believe they at least kicked the tires on him.