Pittsburgh Pirates: Examining Potential Future for 3 Pitching Prospects

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BRADENTON, FLORIDA – MARCH 16: Carmen Mlodzinski #83 of the Pittsburgh Pirates poses for a picture during the 2022 Photo Day at LECOM Park on March 16, 2022 in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

The Pittsburgh Pirates have multiple notable pitching prospects coming up through the system, so what does the future hold for these three?

The future of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff looks bright. By this time next season, the Pirates could be rocking a three-headed monster at the top of the rotation with Roansy Contreras, Mike Burrows, and Quinn Priester. Not to mention that JT Brubaker has been very solid this season, and Zach Thompson was doing well before hitting the injured list. Even Keller has shown some signs of life with his newly added sinker.

That’s already a decent-looking group for 2023, but there are many more upcoming prospects who might find a more difficult time getting starts. Things can obviously change in a year’s time: maybe Keller’s recent hot streak isn’t long-term, or Thompson or Brubaker’s season won’t last. But as things stand right now, the Pirates have a multitude of young pitchers in the upper minors. So what role could we see these three be in next season?

Carmen Mlodzinski

The Pirates drafted Carmen Mlodzinski 31st overall two years ago in the 2020 draft. Since being drafted, Mlodzinski has become one of the Bucs’ better pitching prospects. He’s had a solid season this year and, as we’ve discussed previously, could now soon be looking at a promotion to Triple-A.

Now on the surface, a 4.17 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP aren’t very impressive. However, of the 25 earned runs he has given up, 11 came in his first three outings (he’s pitched in a total of 14 games with 13 being starts). His last 42.2 innings have yielded a quality 3.37 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP. He’s given up just three long balls while striking out nearly a quarter of batters faced (24.7% strikeout rate). His 9.3% walk rate might not be overly impressive, but it’s slightly better than the league average of 9.9%.

Mlodzinski throws a fastball, slider, and changeup. All of his offerings are considered average to above average. His command might not be top of the line, but he gets the job done. He’ll usually sit in the mid-90s but can reel back and unleash some upper-90s heat when he needs to. He might not be the best prospect in the system, but he has the outlook of a quality no. 3 starter.

To me, Mlodzinski is one of the most overlooked starters in the organization. He’s not super flashy, doesn’t throw 98-100 MPH, and doesn’t have that wipeout breaking ball that gets prospects so much attention. But what he does do is go out and give a quality performance. I think Mlodzinski could be the 4th starter behind Burrows, Contreras, and Priester.

Kyle Nicolas

Kyle Nicolas was a right-hander the Pittsburgh Pirates irates acquired as part of the Jacob Stallings trade. Nicolas opened the season as part of Altoona’s strong rotation. Although he is still at Double-A, Nicolas might soon get a promotion to Triple-A, giving the Pirates yet another talented arm in the upper-most level of the minor leagues.

Like Mlodzinski, Nicolas’s surface stats don’t tell the whole story. He’s pitched to the tune of a 4.27 ERA, 4.18 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. His 30.6% strikeout rate is strong, and his 9.7% walk rate is good enough, but a 1.36 HR/9? That’s a bit worrisome, or is it?

Four of the seven total home runs he’s given up this year came in one single outing. Eight of the 22 earned runs he’s allowed also came in that same outing. He didn’t even throw three innings in that one game. Outside his atrocious April 23rd start, Nicolas has a 2.84 ERA and 0.61 HR/9. That one game more than doubled his HR/9.

Nicolas has a mid-90s fastball that averages around 2400 RPM. His slider is also excellent, averaging out in the mid-80s with 2500 RPM of spin. But his curveball and change-up are works in progress, at most. Nicolas has decent stuff, and I’d try and keep him as a starter as long as possible.

Of all the Pirates’ best pitching prospects, Nicolas has the likeliest chance of moving to the bullpen. Not having a third pitch is concerning, especially with so-so command. Many evaluators are understandably wary of Nicolas’ future as a starter. However, as long as he keeps producing as a starting pitching, you might as well ride it out until he proves otherwise.

Miguel Yajure

Miguel Yajure, who was one of the four players acquired in the Jameson Taillon deal, made his first start of the year. He tossed four scoreless innings against the Washington Nationals, needing only 65 pitches to get the Nats out. He should have worked more with fewer pitches had it not been for some botched fielding chances.

But the start of the season wasn’t as clean for Yajure. In his first 10.1 innings of the season, he allowed 13 earned runs. Heck, even in his decent start against the Nats, he walked three without recording a strikeout. That’s a bit worrisome from someone who apparently has good command.

He’s been pretty mediocre at Triple-A this year as well. It’s only been 12.2 innings, but he’s allowed six earned runs with eight walks. Overall, the sample sizes we’re looking at are small. 10.1 innings, 12.2 innings, four innings, not much to really make any conclusive analysis on.

When he’s healthy, he’s a guy who can average out around 91-94 MPH with well above average command. He has a wide arsenal that includes a four-seamer, changeup, slider, curveball, sinker, and cutter. He has a pretty wide arsenal of pitches and a decent selection if he can lock down some command.

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I’ve always been pretty high on Yajure, and I still think he can be a decent pitcher. If the Pittsburgh Pirates can, they should try and find regular starts for Yajure. It would be tough, especially if Mlodzinski or Nicolas keeps pitching the way they have, and the starters in the majors keep pitching well, but the Pirates might find two quality arms from the Taillon deal.

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