Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Bold Mock Trade Proposals

The New York Yankees just lost a key bullpen piece in Michael King. King will undergo season-ending UCL surgery but will luckily avoid Tommy John surgery. Former all-star closer and Cincinnati Red Aroldis Chapman has heavily struggled this year, and so has 2021 breakout star Jonathan Loaisiga. This leaves the Yankees with only a few reliable bullpen arms.

Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star closer David Bednar would provide that elite-level arm in the back of the bullpen for the Yanks. In 45.2 innings, the right-handed reliever has a 2.96 ERA, 2.58 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP. He’s struck out a third of batters faced while having a walk rate below 8%, clocking in at 7.6%. Plus, he has a healthy 0.79 HR/9 rate. There is some slight concern with Bednar, particularly how he’s performed recently, but he’s still a talented arm.

The headliner of this deal is shortstop prospect, Oswald Peraza. Peraza’s .762 OPS, .337 wOBA, and 103 wRC+ might not initially jump off the page, but he’s heated up this summer. Since the start of June, he has hit .308/.384/.534 with a .400 wOBA and 143 wRC+. Now there are two red flags. The first is his 25.2% K-rate and the second is his .382 batting average on balls in play. While those aren’t great, Peraza is a plus defensive shortstop prospect with 20/20 potential. He’s considered a top 50 prospect for a reason.

The pitching prospect also heading to the Pirates is Ken Waldichuk. The southpaw has rocketed up prospect boards this season after putting up a 2.44 ERA, 3.13 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP in 70 innings with the Yankees’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. He’s struck out well over a third of batters faced (36.6%) while having a .77 HR/9. His 10% walk rate isn’t great but is decent enough given his K%. His four-seam fastball averages out in the mid-90s with considerable shape and carry through the strike zone. His change-up is elite, and both his slider and curveball are average offerings.

The third piece is right-hander Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt was formerly a first round pick by the Yankees in 2017. However, injuries have kept Schmidt from reaching his full potential. In his defense though, he’s been extremely effective at Triple-A, posting a 2.93 ERA, has struck out 30.2% of batters faced while having a solid 7.9% walk rate and 1.04 HR/9. Schmidt averages out in the mid-90s with his fastball and sinker while putting a ton of spin on each pitch. With nearly 3000 RPM on his curveball and over 2850 RPM on his slider, Schmidt has a good arsnel of pitches. He could slot into the Pirates’ rotation right now.

Is this a massive ask on the Pittsburgh Pirates end? Absolutely. Baseball Trade Values considered this a minor overpay, and I feel it is a sizable overpay. But the Pirates have all the leverage here. Bednar doesn’t even hit arbitration this off-season. His first round through arbitration comes in the 2023-2024 off-season. The Pirates have no rush to trade him and shouldn’t settle for anything less than an overpay. They dug in their heels to get a good deal for Daniel Vogelbach, and they’d only dig further in for Bednar.

The Minnesota Twins will be looking to bolster their rotation down the stretch. Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and surprisingly former Pirate Chris Archer have been solid to well above average this season. However, off-season acquisition Dylan Bundy has struggled, Chris Paddack underwent season-ending surgery early this year, and both Bailey Ober and Josh Winder are on the injured list. With the Twins having a lead of fewer than five games on the American League Central, they’re going to need some rotation help to fend off the Cleveland Guardians.

That’s where Jose Quintana steps in. Quintana has had his best season since his 2016 all-star campaign. In 97.1 innings, the southpaw starter has a 3.70 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. He might only have a 20.7% K-rate but a robust 7.1% walk rate and .65 HR/9. His opponent’s exit velo of 86.9 MPH also puts him in the top 84th percentile of pitchers this year. His underlying numbers also support his production, with a 3.77 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA.

Simeon Woods Richardson has already been part of some big trades in his professional career. He first went from the New York Mets to the Toronto Blue Jays for Marcus Stroman in 2019. Then he went from the Jays to the Twins, along with Austin Martin for Jose Berrios at the 2021 trade deadline. It’s not as if he’s a bad prospect either. In 53 innings with the Twins’ Double-A affiliate, Richardson has a 3.40 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. His 24.8% K-rate and 8.9% walk rate might not be eye-popping good, but he has limited home runs well, posting a .68 HR/9.

SWR’s pitching arsenal consists of a fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. His change-up and command are his two best weapons, both projecting to be 60-grade items. His curveball projects to be average, while his fastball and slider project to come out at 45-grade offerings. He might see a velo-boost over the next year or two, but he has refined all of his offerings and command.

First base prospect Aaron Sabato would also be heading back to the Pirates. He’s a similar prospect to Mason Martin but has a higher ceiling. The Twins’ 2020 first-round pick, Sabato, is hitting for a .217/.332/.406 line and .337 wOBA. Overall, he’s a slightly above league-average hitter with good plate discipline and solid power. However, there is a considerable downside, and that’s his 32.9% strikeout rate. He’s a big-risk/big-reward type prospect in the sense that if he pans out, you’re getting a 30+ home run hitter, but he could also strike out way too much to ever be productive

Simeon Woods Richardson might be a big ask, but the Pirates need to put a hefty price tag on Quintana. BBTV considers this a moderate overpay. He’s one of the most valuable starters on the trade market, even if he only has one year of control remaining. Quintana has been both healthy and productive, which is something very few of the other starters on the market can say. Pirates have some leverage here too, not as much as in a Bednar trade scenario, but enough that they could squeeze more out of Quintana than what he might have been worth in a neutral market or buyer’s market for starting pitching.