Pittsburgh Pirates: Early Look at Potential Rule 5 Draft Related Roster Moves

The Rule 5 draft is still months away, but let’s take a way too early preview of some 40-man roster decisions the Pittsburgh Pirates will have to face.

Because of the lockout in the 2021-2022 offseason, there was no major league phase Rule 5 Draft, the first time since it was established. The Pittsburgh Pirates protected some notable prospects, with Jack Suwinski, Travis Swaggerty, Diego Castillo, and Liover Peguero receiving 40-man roster spots. They also left unprotected other noteworthy prospects like Mason Martin, Cal Mitchell, and Cody Bolton.

Luckily, the Pittsburgh Pirates were able to sneak out with no noteworthy prospects taken away because of the draft’s cancellation (they did lose right-hander Steven Jennings to the New York Yankees in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft). However, the 2022-2023 MLB Rule 5 draft is scheduled to take place at the Winter Meetings once again without interruption.

That’s still a long way away, approximately four months out. But the Pirate 40-man roster can start taking shape now in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft. So let’s take a way too early look at some potential players who could be protected, left off, or released/DFA’d from the roster to make room for new players.

Likely new additions to the 40-man roster

If Ji-Hwan Bae isn’t added by the end of this season, he surely will be by the time rosters must be finalized in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft. Bae is having a solid season at Triple-A Indianapolis, slashing .297/.364/.450 with a .361 wOBA and 118 wRC+. Bae’s .153 isolated slugging percentage is a career-best and has been trending upward since 2019.

Bae’s 17.6% strikeout rate is another career low, while his 9.5% walk rate is above average. Bae has mostly played the middle infield but has spent a handful of games in center field and left field for Indy, giving the Pittsburgh Pirates another highly versatile prospect and making room for the multiple other middle infield prospects already in the system.

Newly acquired slugger Malcom Nuñez also has a good chance of acquiring a 40-man roster spot. Acquired as one of the two players in the José Quintana trade, Nuñez was batting .255/.360/.463 with the Cardinal Double-A affiliate. Nuñez’s 13.7% walk rate is a career-best, along with his .208 isolated slugging percentage. Nuñez has run into some bad luck, indicated by his .278 batting average on balls in play (league average is .300 and his career average is .337). Still, he has plus power potential and excellent plate discipline and could be an option at first base and designated hitter for the Pirates sometime next season.

Mike Burrows is arguably the organization’s best pitching prospect. He’s ascended prospect rankings over the past year after significantly improving his change-up, giving him a quality three-pitch arsenal. Burrows got off to a great start to the year with Altoona, posting a 2.94 ERA, 2.73 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP. He struggled with Triple-A Indy, but a .330 BAbip hasn’t done him any favors, and despite having a 5.34 ERA, his FIP comes in at 3.70. His K% is down, and his HR/9 is up from Double-A, but his walk rate has decreased by 3.5%.

Endy Rodriguez is another guy who will surely get a 40-man roster spot to himself. After performing extremely well with A-Ball Bradenton in 2021, Rodriguez has only improved, slashing .302/.392/.544 line, .412 wOBA, and 148 wRC+. Rodriguez has a wRC+ well over 200 since mid-June (213, 113% better than league average) with more walks than strikeouts (25:22 ratio) and ten homers. He hit ten home runs in this 39 game/164 plate appearance stretch and hit 15 all of last season in 98 games/434 plate appearances.

Tahnaj Thomas may be up for heavy consideration. The right-hander has made a name for himself out of the Altoona bullpen. In his last 24.1 innings, Thomas has carved out a 1.85 ERA, 2.27 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. He’s struck out 28.9% of batters faced since June with a strong 5.2% walk rate. Thomas likely would have been selected last year if there was a draft. He’s the proto-typical Rule 5 selection, being mostly raw talent and ability rather than on-paper performance. Now that he’s started to refine that talent and athleticism, he’d only be a more attractive option.

There are some outfielders I could see the Pittsburgh Pirates protecting in advance of the Rule 5 draft. One is Matt Fraizer. Frazier is heavily struggling this season with a .224/.290/.358 slash line, .288 wOBA, and 75 wRC+. But he was one of the Pirates’ best minor league hitters in 2021 and is still considered one of their better outfield prospects.

Connor Scott is another outfield prospect who is struggling at Double-A, turning in a .245/.315/.379 slash, .310 wOBA, and 89 wRC+. Although Fraizer is doing worse than Scott, I see them protecting Fraizer first. With so many other outfielders on the 40-man roster, the Pirates might only consider Fraizer or Scott if they have the room.

Some younger players will definitely be on the radar. Dariel Lopez has turned on the jets over the past month and a half, so he’ll surely be a prospect under consideration. Catcher/first baseman Abrahan Gutierrez has put up solid numbers with High-A Greensboro and will likely be at least on the table. Both are at Greensboro, so there’s a possibility, although both are still young enough that they may get passed over.

Surging Altoona infielders Aaron Shackelford and Andres Alvarez will likely be considered for Rule 5 protection but will take a back seat to both Bae and Nuñez in terms of priority. Likewise, Cody Bolton and J.C. Flowers may also be considered but will have to wait and see what happens to Burrows. Jared Triolo and Matt Gorksi will both be interesting cases as well. I think Gorksi may even take priority over Fraizer and Scott, given his season. Triolo may earn a 40-man roster spot before the end of this season.

Players to be removed from the roster

There are plenty of names on the Pittsburgh Pirates current 40-man roster who should be could be designated for assignment between now and when Rule 5 decisions will need to be made. Let’s get some of the easy names out of the way first. Kevin Padlo, Josh VanMeter, Greg Allen, Jose Godoy, Eric Stout, Yohan Ramirez, and Jeremy Beasley are as easy calls as you can get.

The only noteworthy free agent currently on the active roster is Ben Gamel. Gamel is slashing only .244/.338/.372. With Suwinski and Swaggerty pushing for a recall to the majors, Cal Mitchell and Bligh Madris already in the majors, Canaan Smith-Njigba returning next season, and the multitude of other outfield prospects like Fraizer, Scott, and Gorski under consideration for a 40-man roster spot, the Pirates likely aren’t going to bring back a veteran platoon outfielder who only hits for about league average numbers.

Kevin Newman may be viewed as a potential trade candidate. Since returning from the injured list in early July, Newman has put up a .276/.311/.378 line with a .302 wOBA and 93 wRC+. While that is solid production from Newman, it’s still below average, with some worrying numbers below the hood. He’s striking out nearly 20% of the time with a 19.3% strikeout rate while still carrying a well below average walk rate (3.9%) and average exit velocity of 85.1 MPH. Newman is providing the Pirates with very good defense at second base, but with the multitude of middle infield prospects coming up the pipeline and already on the 40-man, Newman has to do more than good defense with a below-average bat to give the Pirates a reason to keep him around.

Newman has contract control on his side, and there is a team out there who has much less middle infield depth than the Pittsburgh Pirates, willing to give up something of value to deepen their 2B/SS picture. Newman isn’t valueless but has much more value on the trading block than as a part of the Pirate 40-man roster.

One last guy worth mentioning is Dillon Peters. Peters started the year on the right foot, reeling off 16.2 straight scoreless innings of work. However, his following 22 innings pitch have yielded a 7.94 ERA. His HR/9 in this time is 2.0 while having a strikeout rate well below 15% at 11.8% and a walk rate of 10%. Peters is a similar arm to both Cruz and McGough. However, the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t need three soft-tossing lefties with a limited ceiling on the roster. There are better ways to utilize Peters current roster spot, even if that’s to get a fresh face like Cruz or McGough into the pen.