Determining if These Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects Are Starters or Relievers

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a decent amount of young pitching talent in the system, but what role will these three arms undertake in the future?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton of pitching prospects in their system. You have the big names like Quinn Priester, Jared Jones, and Mike Burrows, and the recent draft picks like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Michael Kennedy, Anthony Solometo, and Bubba Chandler. You also have guys flying under the radar like Po-Yu Chen, and Owen Kellington, along with guys at the rookie-ball level like Hung Leng Chang, Joaquin Tejada, and Carlos Jimenez.

There are plenty of more noteworthy pitching prospects in the Pirates’ system, and there’s a good chance the Bucs will find a handful of quality arms among that group alone. But not every pitcher will be a starter. Some will move to the bullpen, others will get traded, and some may start out as starting pitchers but move into a relief role.

The Pirates have three young arms I want to look at today who teeter on the edge of being a starting pitcher or a relief pitcher in the long run. All three have pitched in the upper minor leagues, including one who has major league time already put in. However, while they lack the current attributes to be a starter, it’s not out of the question they could eventually develop into that.

Kyle Nicolas

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Kyle Nicolas this past offseason as part of the three-player package for Jacob Stallings. Nicolas was a second-round pick by the Miami Marlins in 2020. Nicolas came with risk, and the Bucs knew that when they got him. But are those risks too much for him to be a starting pitcher?

After his 6 strong innings Wednesday night, Nicolas has a 3.89 ERA, 4.18 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP. He has a healthy 27.6% strikeout rate with a 10.9% walk rate. His 1.04 HR/9 rate isn’t great, but it deserves more context. Of the eight home runs he’s given up, four came in just one outing, where he gave up eight earned runs in just two innings. Outside of that short, clunker outing, he has a .53 HR/9 and 2.94 ERA. His ERA goes down by nearly a run, and his HR/9 is cut in half.

Nicolas has a big fastball that averages out in the mid-90s but can regularly hit the upper-90s. Not only does he have considerable velocity, but his fastball has above-average spin with an average of 2400 RPM. That spin helps it carry through the top of the zone and depth low in the zone. His slider also has good velocity, sitting in the upper-80s. Nicolas’s primary breaking ball has sharp break, making it a highly reliable offering.

But his curveball and change-up are the biggest reasons why there are questions surrounding his long-term ability. His curveball has the best chance to be a decent offering. MLB Pipeline projects it as a 50-grade pitch, giving him three average or better offerings. FanGraphs isn’t so bullish, putting it as a 45-grade offering. However, neither have kind words to say about his change.

Nicolas already has two plus-plus offerings. His third pitch has an average ceiling, and his change-up is a pitch he’ll barely throw. But there are four distinct pitches here, even if one is far from reliable.

Luis Ortiz

Luis Ortiz was one of the Pirates’ best minor league starting pitchers. However, that was with the Low-A Bradenton Marauders. He’s now in the starting rotation with the Altoona Curve, and while he has shown some talent, the results haven’t been there for the big right-hander.

In 99.1 innings of work, Ortiz has a 4.89 ERA with an almost identical 4.88 FIP. However, he is holding opponents to just a .230 average against, has allowed just 7.8% to reach via the free pass, and has a solid 25.2% strikeout rate. Much of Ortiz’s struggles can be traced back to the number of home runs he’s given up. Despite his excellent performance on Tuesday, Ortiz’s HR/9 still sits at an ugly 1.63 rate.

Granted, there is some bad luck at play here. Ortiz has a well above average 47.3% ground ball rate and HR/FB ratio of 19.6%. That’s the fifth highest qualified HR/FB rate at Double-A. Notably, it’s the highest HR/FB ratio at Double-A among pitchers who induce ground balls over 45% of the time. Last year, he had a much more reasonable 8.9% HR/FB percentage, leading to a .52 HR/9.

Ortiz averages out in the mid-to-upper 90s. He has big velocity, along with a big breaking ball. The problem is he has no third offering. Ortiz’s changeup sits at a 30-grade pitch now and only has a ceiling of a 40-grade offering. That’s concerning, given that every starting pitcher needs at least a fourth average pitch they can rely on to some degree.

In Ortiz’s defense, he performs much better through the game’s early stages. In innings one and two, Ortiz has an ERA of just 2.20 and a FIP of 3.30. He has a K/9 of 10.1 and BB/9 of 2.2. His K:BB ratio in innings one and two is 4.6. Ortiz’s HR/9 is also a much better .88 rate. However, the only inning after the second in which he has an ERA below 5.00 is the 4th, coming in with a 4.24 mark.

I’d like to see how Ortiz would do with better fly ball luck. His xFIP, which helps normalize his HR/FB rate, is 4.00. While that’s still not great, it’s a massive improvement from 4.89. But he still struggles to get through a line-up a second time, which is a side-effect of lacking a third pitch. I think Ortiz is closer to Tahnaj Thomas than he is to Kyle Nicolas or Mike Burrows. Improving Ortiz’s change-up would be like trying to teach him a new pitch altogether.