Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential Back of the Rotation Options in 2023

Already in the majors

As stated earlier, the Pirates have basically been rotating through fifth starters this year. We’ll start with the one who has the most playing time, JT Brubaker. I’d be lying if I said that Brubaker didn’t have potential. Even with his most recent poor start against the Atlanta Braves, Brubaker still has a handful of quality attributes.

Since his third start of the season, Brubaker has a 4.06 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP. He’s struck out 23.8% of batters faced with a 7.6% walk rate. His home run rate is also a strong 0.9-per-9 rate. Overall this year, Brubaker has a +2.2 fWAR in 127 innings, which is a +1.8 fWAR improvement from 2021 when he pitched 124 innings. The right-handed starter has put up a quality 3.78 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA, showing that some bad luck has been at play. Overall, Brubaker has had a quality 2022 campaign. In my opinion, he’s the likeliest internal option to fill the back end of the rotation.

However, while Brubaker has an inside track on a long-term rotation spot, he isn’t the only starter we could see fill in the last spot. Bryse Wilson has also shown some talent recently. Since making his sinker his primary offering, Wilson has a 3.83 ERA, 5.22 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. His 2.7% walk rate in 44.2 innings is the best among all pitchers, with at least 40 IP since the start of July. However, his 13.7% strikeout rate is the seventh worst in the same time frame. Wilson has given up home runs at a 1.81-per-9 pace, though with a 46% ground ball rate and 17% HR/FB ratio, that could go down. Wilson does have a 4.34 xFIP, which is much better than his 5.22 FIP.

Zach Thompson is another name who could get some starts in the fifth rotation spot. Thompson has struggled this year, limping to the tune of a 5.51 ERA, 5.48 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP. Thompson has a poor 16% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate, but home runs have been his most significant struggles. He has a 1.72 HR/9 rate, but he has had better days. The last month has not been something Thompson wants to remember, surrendering 29 earned runs in his previous 29.1 innings.

Prospects or in the minors

The most MLB-ready pitching prospect worth talking about is Cody Bolton. Bolton has returned from a two-year hiatus because of the canceled 2020 minor league season and an injury in 2021. He’s pitched quite well for Triple-A Indianapolis, posting a 2.93 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP. Bolton has a healthy 25.5% strikeout rate and has only let up a single home run in 58.1 innings of work. However, he does have a 13.9% walk rate and an HR/FB ratio of just 1.7%.

Bolton could see some starts in September, given the struggles Thompson has seen and Tyler Beede’s inability to make it through the line-up more than once. His underlying numbers are not pretty. His 1.7% HR/FB ratio likely isn’t sustainable, and his walk rate approaching 14% is worryingly high. Still, he’s gotten the job done, so he at least deserves a look.

One fascinating name to watch is Kyle Nicolas. Nicolas was acquired alongside Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal. The hard-throwing right-hander has a 3.82 ERA, 4.33 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. He’s struck out 27.4% of batters faced with an 11.6% walk rate. But Thompson has been a lot better than his numbers suggest.

Nicolas surrendered four home runs and eight earned runs in just two innings on April 23rd, his third start of the year. Outside of that one outing, he has a 2.95 ERA. His HR/9 is just .61 and has a K:BB ratio of 2.4. Overall, it’s been one lousy outing spoiling the rest of his line. That one start makes up for a quarter of the total earned runs he has given up all year despite the innings in that one game making up less than 3% of his total IP.

Nicolas’s Double-A teammate Carmen Mlodzinski may also compete for a rotation spot. A first-round competitive balance pick in 2020, Mlodzinski has a 4.94 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, albeit with a much better 4.01 FIP. Mlodzinski has some solid peripherals, though, striking out 24.4% of batters faced, only allowing home runs at a .99-per-9 rate and allowing 9.1% of batters to reach via free pass. On the plus side, he has a 15.6% line-drive rate, which is a near 10% improvement from 2021, but a 47.6% FB rate, a 16% increase from last year.

One of the other prospects the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired in the Jameson Taillon trade could also be an option in Miguel Yajure. It has been a pretty forgettable year for the right-hander, who has a 6.52 ERA, 4.86 FIP, and 1.55 WHIP for Triple-A Indianapolis. While a 60.7% left on base rate and .331 batting average on balls in play are a sign of some bad luck, he’s still struggled nonetheless. But despite his poor numbers this year, I still wouldn’t rule him out as a possible rotation option.

Another player who has already seen some time in the major leagues is Johan Oviedo. Oviedo was acquired by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the José Quintana trade. Oviedo has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this year, working to the tune of a 3.20 ERA, 4.07 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP in 25.1 innings. On the plus side, he held opponents to just a 6.5% walk rate and has struck them out at a 24.1% rate. Home runs have plagued him in the small sample size with a 1.4 HR/9. The Pirates optioned Oviedo to Triple-A once they acquired him and slotted him into Indianapolis’ rotation. He’s primarily worked in short outings as an opener but has allowed just one earned run on nine K’s, two walks, and five hits in 7.2 innings.

A few final internal options I think are worth at least mentioning are Trey McGough, Omar Cruz, and Max Kranick. McGough and Cruz are the typical soft-tossing lefties who heavily rely on command to get outs. McGough was having a nice season with Triple-A Indianapolis before landing on the injured list early this season. Cruz has struggled at Double-A, but is an intersting name nonetheless. Kranick could have had a chance to secure a rotation spot this year after seeing an uptick in fastball velocity, but underwent Tommy John surgery. He could be a rotation option in the second half of 2023.

Potential free agent or trade acquisitions?

The Pirates are approaching a point where they could add players that aren’t just back-of-the-rotation innings eaters for just one year. Now chances are, the Pirates aren’t going to go after the big fish, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any solid middle-of-the-rotation arms for more than just a single season.

One player I wouldn’t mind seeing the Pirates reunite with is Jameson Taillon. Taillon hasn’t been a terrible pitcher for the New York Yankees, being roughly league average with a 98 ERA+. He’s averaged 3.72 strikeouts for every walk, but the biggest issue has been home runs. He has a 1.43 HR/9, but he was much better at limiting the long ball with the Bucs. A two-year deal with an option for a third year and AAV around $15 million would be pretty reasonable.

An underrated starting pitcher option who will hit the open market is Ross Stripling. The one-time All-Star has a 138 ERA+ this season with the Toronto Blue Jays. Though Stripling has mostly served as a swingman-type pitcher throughout his career, but the Pirates could give him a full-time chance to start games. Stripling currently is posting career bests in ERA (2.84), FIP (2.79), WHIP (1.04), walk percentage (4.2%), and HR/9 (.57). He’s still being used as a swingman, and he’s currently 33 years old, which might help him get to the Pirates’ price range.

Another reunion most Pirates fans probably wouldn’t object to is with Jose Quintana. The Pirates signed Quintana this past off-season, and he pitched outstanding for them, working to the tune of a 3.50 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP in 103 innings before being dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline for Malcolm Nunez and Johan Oviedo. So far, Quintana has pitched 19.2 more innings allowing seven earned runs and just one home run, but he has walked nine with only 16 K’s. Like with Stripling, age will be a factor as to how much Quintana gets this off-season. He’s going to be entering his age-34 campaign in 2023. Plus, in the three seasons before 2022, he had just an 86 ERA+.

Some other free agents I could see the Pirates at least kick the tires on is Zach Eflin, who posted an ERA+ of 101 or greater in the three seasons prior to 2022, Wade Miley, who’s mostly been hurt this season, but had an ERA+ of 139 in 2021, or Drew Smyly, another southpaw who has been a consistently rock solid arm the last few seasons. These three options would give the Pirates a league average or better arm in the fifth spot of the rotation behind Priester, Contreras, Keller, and Burrows.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates explore the trade market with some of their Rule 5 players. Guys like Abrahan Gutierrez, Cody Bolton, Matt Fraizer, or Matt Gorski could be used to acquire a pitcher. Ask the Oakland Athletics what their asking price on Cole Irvin is. See what kind of players the Kansas City Royals want for Brad Keller. Maybe invest in a rebound candidate like Miami Marlins’ Elieser Hernandez.

I think the Pirates have a ton of internal options that going outside the organization isn’t a necessity, but I still think it would be a good idea to add some reinforced foundation with a proven veteran. This year’s starting pitching free agent market doesn’t have a ton of big-name options, which could help play into the Pittsburgh Pirates favor.